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European concerns that the fallout from the war in Gaza could engulf the entire Middle East were fueled by Israeli airstrikes this week on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, reportedly including a senior commander in the Gaza Strip. The death of six Iranians brings us one step closer to reality. Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his lieutenants of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ elite Al-Quds Force.
Israel has regularly carried out airstrikes against Iranian targets and assassinated Iranian military personnel in Syria, but the attack on the consulate, which is legally on Iranian territory, marks a significant escalation. Iranian leaders have so far responded to Israeli actions with relative restraint, saying they wanted to avoid all-out war. But after the Damascus attack, Iran has come under increasing pressure from its domestic constituents and regional allies to strike back forcefully to avoid giving the impression of extreme weakness that could invite further aggression.
So Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi promised to take revenge on Israel. At Iran’s request, the UN Security Council held an extraordinary meeting on April 2, in which Iran’s representative called for the body’s condemnation of the attack on Israel, and said that Iran would “resolutely take action within the bounds of international law and international law.” We reserve the inherent and legitimate right to respond.” Charter of the United Nations. ”
Hossein Shariat-Madari, editor-in-chief of the hard-line state-run Kayhan newspaperThe paper, which was directly appointed to the position by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, argued that Iran had the legal right to retaliate by attacking Israeli embassies around the world. Member of Parliament Jamal Rashidi Kochi went further: openly called He cited neighboring Azerbaijan, a close ally of Israel, for attacking “Zionist diplomatic centers” in the region. Notably, in response to past alleged attacks on Israel, Iran has attacked targets in Iraqi Kurdistan, another regional entity with strong ties to Israel.
The exact nature, scale, and timing of Iran’s response remains to be determined. But the first signs are that, as expected, the attack in Damascus will provoke a stronger response. Many analysts noted that after the National Security Council’s deliberations, Khamenei delivered a tough speech and promised a strong response from “brave Iranians.” interpreted As a vow that react directlyThis is Tehran’s usual modus operandi, not through allies or proxies. This, in turn, increases the risk of further escalation.
This prospect leaves Europe in a precarious position. An all-out war would destabilize the region, trigger mass migration to Europe, and lead to possible attacks on European targets in the Middle East (the Red Sea to counter Yemen’s Houthi rebels allied with Iran). (e.g. EU naval operations), which would bring about reconstruction. The fate of terrorist organizations such as ISIS and Al Qaeda. After the March 22 attack on ISIS in Moscow, intelligence agencies in France and other European countries have already warned of a growing terrorist threat in Europe.
To mitigate these risks, the EU and UK need to use their diplomatic ties with all actors in the region to prevent war from escalating. This includes Iran, with which the EU and its member states have direct relations, unlike the United States.
In fact, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell used his connections with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian to report on iran It aims to influence regional allies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Shiite militias based in Iraq and Syria, and Yemen’s Houthis to move towards de-escalation.
The EU is right to assess that Iran’s political, financial and military support for these groups undermines regional security, but even Iran does not have absolute control over these groups. isn’t it. However, these European efforts will go far beyond achieving a sustainable ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and reinvigorating an inclusive political process leading to a viable Palestinian state coexisting in security with Israel. If part of a broader strategy, it could bear fruit. The EU cannot reliably push back against Tehran’s support for its regional ally if it itself is seen as unable or unwilling to restrain Israel.
Borel condemned Addressing the attack on the Iranian consulate, he stressed that the inviolability of diplomatic facilities and personnel must be respected at all times. However, most EU member states did not condemn the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, unlike regional countries such as Qatar, Oman and Qatar. Saudi ArabiaUnited Arab Emirates, Egypt, Lebanon, turkey, especially China, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Malaysia, etc. Slovenia, a non-permanent member of the Security Council, announced this at the UN Security Council meeting on 2 April. France and the United Kingdom (which, although not members of the EU, still have significant influence over the bloc’s Iran policy) primarily blamed Iran for regional instability.
Given that EU-Iranian relations are at their worst, it would be politically unpalatable for the EU to take any other action. However, the EU has influence in encouraging Israel to shift its political course in the Gaza Strip and warning against escalation in the region.
So far, it has not been able to make that impact. The EU is Israel’s largest trading partner, accounting for 28.8% of Israel’s trade in 2022. A joint initiative between Spain and Ireland to consider a deal to boost this trade could be partially halted due to Israel’s acts of war in Gaza, prompting backlash from Israel’s EU allies including Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy and Austria. I’m experiencing
Critics of Israel encouraged the review to be carried out by Borrell’s European External Action Service, rather than the European Commission, whose president, Ursula von der Leyen, takes a strongly pro-Israel stance. Still, the possibility of suspension is low. And so far there is no evidence that Israel’s Netanyahu government will accept any less strong diplomatic requests that the EU may convey.
Further escalation risks moving Iran closer to acquiring nuclear deterrence as the ultimate insurance policy, especially if Iran’s current network of regional alliances and forward defense postures continue to face destruction from Israeli attacks. Such a change is especially plausible as a leadership change looms. Ayatollah Khamenei, who issued a fatwa against the production of nuclear weapons, is 85 years old. The next generation of leaders of the Islamic Republic may not have such concerns.
Nuclearizing Iran would only further exacerbate the destabilizing fallout from the Gaza war, and decades of European-led efforts to control Iran’s nuclear program would ultimately be in vain. . However, on the current trajectory, the EU seems unlikely to muster the political will and use its influence to tackle the Gaza conflict, the epicenter of the growing war in the Middle East.
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