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During a conversation with my father over winter break, the long-standing debate about French military service came up. “I did it, your uncle did it, your grandfather did it. So why shouldn’t you?
My father, like many French policymakers, is a strong believer in reinstating compulsory military service.Under President Emmanuel Macron new rulesYoung people in France over the age of 16 will have the opportunity to serve for a month, and policymakers are also considering it. bring back old mission Regarding military service, all French citizens are required to serve at least six months. Ostensibly, The purpose of the “Service National Universe” is to convey French republican values and maintain national unity, but its revival was understandably due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the inauguration of President Trump’s second term. associated with possibility.
There are still six months until the election, but as of this writing, Donald Trump appears to be the front-runner. “Put a gun to his head. I would give him between a three-fifth and a two-thirds chance of winning the electoral vote, taking into account voting, legal issues, abortion, and everything else. Masu.” says Milan Singh ’26, a news opinion columnist.
President Trump has repeatedly said he would cut off U.S. aid to Ukraine. Because he said he would let Russia do it;whatever they want”, a blunt response to NATO allies who are not meeting their financial goals in the alliance.Yeah” When asked if they would protect NATO countries, it is clear that the alliance is in crisis.
The United States is currently the largest contributor of both military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine so far. If this aid is cut off, Europe will be forced to make very tough decisions.
Looking ahead to the possibility of a second Trump administration, European leaders have begun discussing plans for a world without U.S. support. President Macron renewed his call for France to reinstate compulsory military service and for Europe to embrace the principle of .strategic autonomy” — that is, maintaining a defense force large enough to withhold American aid.
Europe is already moving in that direction.Purchased by Germany, Netherlands, Spain and Romania 1,000 Patriot missiles; A system that can eliminate the threat of airborne infection, Denmark It is sending almost all its artillery to Ukraine. However, the fact remains that the United States has provided the bulk of military aid, and Europe currently has no capacity to fill the gap if the United States turns to isolationism.
All this happened as the Ukrainian counterattack stalled in the face of Russian conscript troops. Although the Ukrainians have access to significant anti-armor and anti-aircraft weapons systems and artillery capabilities such as the CAESAR and M109 systems used for long-range artillery fire, not enough ammunition We also need manpower to sustain the war at its current pace. Fortunately, Europe has the financial strength to compensate for the absence of the United States. But unless Europe rapidly increases defense spending and military aid and pivots to a wartime economy, the situation in Ukraine will be much bleaker.
It is not clear at this time whether President Putin will stop in Kiev. During his presidency, he initiated military interventions in several countries. mali, via Wagner PMC.Between syrian civilian Assad’s war.in georgia; and in crimea If President Trump follows through on his promise to kneecap NATO and Ukraine collapses, Putin will be further emboldened.
Today it could be Ukraine, tomorrow it could be the Baltic states and Moldova. top government Some of these countries are already sounding the alarm.of German Minister of Defense President Putin has publicly expressed concern that he may attack NATO members within the next five to eight years.
This does not mean that further Russian aggression is imminent or possible. Still, Europe needs to prepare for a world in which the United States plays a diminished role in defending Europe from Russian aggression. The fact is that Europe has funds to support the defense of Ukraine and itself. Regardless of whether Trump wins or not, it is in the continent’s interest to pursue strategic autonomy. What remains to be seen is whether there is the political will to do so. Although Europe has the resources needed to achieve strategic autonomy and guarantee the continent’s security, policymakers and citizens alike remain reluctant to prepare for a world without American support. Whether we see this depends both on Brussels over the next few years and on America this November.
Luca Girodon I am a sophomore at Branford University. To contact him, luca.girodon@yale.edu.
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