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Before the elite races begin at XCC short tracks, we did our best to predict who we think could be this weekend’s headliners.
Who will prove to be good in 2024?
World Cup racing just started this weekend, but riders have plenty of time between recording local races. Some of the world’s top players had extra practice last weekend at the same venue where the season began. Of course, since it’s only the opening race, we still don’t fully know who is really reaching their best race speed. Ahead of this weekend’s predictions, here are some riders who are performing well in 2024 so far.
One rider with multiple wins early in the season is Pauline Ferrand-Prévost, who has taken the 2023 rainbow jersey to the top of multiple podiums. In many of the big pre-season races, Pauline has scored big wins against some of the top World Cup riders, setting up a challenge for those looking to beat her in her home country at the Olympics later this year. A rider who has shown great consistency heading into the World Cup season is Sabiria Blank, but she has yet to finish outside the top three in her XCO format this year.
In the men’s race, Joshua Dubow, who has two second-place finishes and one win so far this year, looks to be aiming for another impressive result in the opening race. Interestingly, Joshua’s win came from an event held at the same venue as this weekend’s race. 2023 U23 World Cup overall winner Adrian Boitsis is set to make the transition to the elite in early 2024, and will be a player to keep an eye on given his multiple top-five finishes so far this year. . This year there will be a fierce battle between French racers for the very limited number of Olympic spots.
Although not in XCO format, Ann Terpstra and Nicole Kohler were an unstoppable force throughout the week of riding, with several riders taking on the grueling challenge of the 2024 Cape Epic. The Ghost Factory Racing pair won every stage against stiff competition from marathon world champion Mona Mitterwallner. It was a tough week for Nino Schurter and Sebastian Fini as they battled hard to maintain their second place finish. The hope is that the two players who made up the World Bicycle Relief Team will not be too exhausted before the season and face difficulties in the first games of the World Cup series.
Who are the likely players for the opening match?
Looking at the data from the past five World Cup opening games, Roana Leconte has had the most consistent performance so far, having been either first or third since 2020. The two championships were in 2020 and 2021, but Loana was also in contention for the championship in 2022. She was 11 seconds slower last year. Another French rider and likely first-round rider is of course Pauline Ferrand-Prévost, who is already expected to win before the race even begins.
Last year’s race winner Pac Peters has missed Brazil’s first two XC rounds as he is concentrating on the road. It’s also worth mentioning Rebecca Henderson, who won the 2022 season opener in Brazil and could get a rematch this weekend despite injuring her ankle earlier this spring. Or?
The elite men’s data is much less consistent as there have been five different race winners in the past five opening races. Of the 11 riders who finished in the top three, Nino Schurter has been the most consistent since 2019, finishing third or better in the opening race three times. Nino’s season-opening top-three finishes include a victory in Petropolis, Brazil in 2022. Matthias Flückiger and Maxim Matthias won in 2019, making Marotte the only rider to have more than one finish in the top three.
2019 – Albstadt
elite women
First place. Kate Courtney: 1:26:03
The second. Jolanda Neff: +0:49
The third. Yana Belomoina: +1:31
4th. Ann Tauber +1:49
5th place. Ann Terpstra: +2:20
elite men
First place. Matthias Fluckiger: 1:23:54
The second. Mathieu van der Poel: +0:32
The third. Jordan Saroo: +0:33
4th. Titouan Calod: +1:20
5th place. Florian Vogel: +1:22
2020 – Nove Mesto
elite women
First place. Roana Lecomte: 1:22:06
The second. Ann Terpstra: +31
The third. Pauline Ferrand Prévost: +37
4th. Lena Gerow: +1:15
5th place. Laura Steger: +1:21
elite men
First place. Simon Andreassen: 1:34:39
The second. Maxim Marot: +9
The third. Milan Bader: +26
4th. Nino Schurter: +44
5th place. Enrique Avancini: +44
2021 – Albstadt
elite women
First place. Roana Lecomte: 1:21:38
The second. Pauline Ferrand Prévost: +53
The third. Hayley Batten: +1:15
4th. Kate Courtney: +1:20
5th place. Yana Belomoina: +1:30
elite men
First place. Victor Koretsky: 1:20:23
The second. Nino Schurter: +2
The third. Matthias Flückiger: +23
4th. Ondrej Cinku: +25
5th place. Thomas Pidcock: +29
2022 – Petropolis, Brazil
elite women
First place. Rebecca McConnell: 1:29:41
The second. Ann Terpstra: +17
The third. Roana Lecomte: +38
4th. Laura Steger: +1:44
5th place. Mona Mitterwallner: +1:53
elite men
First place. Nino Schurter: 1:26:52
The second. Maxime Marot:+ 0
The third. Vlad Duskal: +3
4th. Sebastian Fini Carstensen: +55
5th place. Filippo Colombo: +56
2023 – Nove Mesto
elite women
First place. Pac Peters: 1:23:01
The second. Pauline Ferrand Prévost: +5
The third. Roana Lecomte: +11
4th. Evie Richards: +16
5th place. Alessandra Keller: +38
elite men
First place. Tom Pidcock: 1:22:46
The second. Joshua Dubow: +5
The third. Nino Schurter: +23
4th. Jordan Saroo: +23
5th place. Thomas Griot: +48
Recommended by elite women
Roana Lecomte:
The first candidate for this weekend’s top result is Roana Leconte, who has a track record of taking the top spot in the opening race and was also a favorite to win the previous race in Brazil. Roana hasn’t participated in many pre-season races, but she already has one win in 2024, so this will be a race to watch this weekend.
Laura Steger:
Our next choice is Laura Steger. Laura Steger ended her outstanding 2023 season in 4th place overall after multiple top-5 finishes and her first Elite XCO win in snowshoeing. Laura has already won one race this year and finished third in the French Cup behind Pauline Ferrand-Prévost and Sabilia Blanc. We think Laura has a chance to win another Elite World Cup this weekend.
Sabiria Blank:
The final candidate in the women’s race is Sabiria Blank, who won on this very course last weekend and has consecutive top results in several national races across Europe. Sabiria had some strong results in snowshoeing last year, including a fourth place, and could be a real threat for her podium on Sunday.
Recommended for elite men
Nino Schurter:
When it comes to the men’s elite race, it’s hard to bet on Nino Schurter. Having previously won in Brazil and defending his overall World Cup title from 2023, Nino will be hoping to start the Olympic year with a big result. Nino’s only problem may be that he tried too hard in last month’s Cape Epic, but that hasn’t slowed him down in recent years.
Victor Koretsky:
Victor Koretsky could be a tough rider to beat this week as he remains undefeated in the races he has entered so far in 2024. With strong results to back him up, Victor is looking to secure a place in the French Olympic squad. He will be one of the favorites to win Sunday’s XCO race.
Joshua Dubow:
The men’s finalist is Joshua Dubow. He was one of the few riders able to challenge Tom Pidcock last year and finished the first round of 2023 just behind the rider who would become the 2024 world champion. Joshua has shown his strength in 2024 with several top-three finishes in races early in the season, including wins over Filippo Colombo and Matthias Flückiger on the opening course last weekend.
Wildcard
We’ve made our main predictions about potential winners above, but there were other riders we should mention as potential top performers at this weekend’s World Cup opener.
Hayley Batten:
Hayley Batten is another rider who finished second in the pre-race event at Mairiporan last weekend and won last month’s Orange Seal Pro Cup against several top riders. A best result has already been secured at this track and Haley could be aiming for another podium this weekend.
Peter Sagan:
With Olympic glory at stake, Peter Sagan needs a big result to qualify for this year’s Olympics. We don’t really know the exact math, but Peter will need every possible point to get closer to the eligibility criteria. I didn’t get the results I wanted in 2023, but as the countdown to selection begins, it’s all or nothing.
Who would you choose?
We’ve shared our thoughts and candidates for this weekend, but who do you think will be aiming for the top of the podium?
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