[ad_1]
welcome home foreign policySit rep! This is the last of our special travel editions at the Munich Security Conference (MSC). Thank you for coming on board. We will return to regular programming starting this Thursday.
Europe braces for the threat of broader conflict with Russia, the US Senate is optimistic about releasing stalled US military aid to Ukraine, and NATO allies reach the 2% defense spending mark.
ready to fight
Sunday is always the last day of the MSC and is traditionally the day when world leaders take part in dramatic events. On the last day of the 2023 conference, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas called on the European Union to jointly purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine. Later that day, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced that the bloc would make it happen.
But this time, 28 heads of government and state, 56 foreign ministers, 20 defense ministers, 36 spy chiefs and hundreds of parliamentarians from around the world are packing their bags and preparing to return home. Then the maze-like security checkpoint began. Well, it was a big announcement on Saturday and was still the talk of the town.
At a Ukraine-themed luncheon on Saturday afternoon, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen made a dramatic announcement. “We, Denmark, have decided to donate the entire cannon to Ukraine,” she said. “I’m sorry, but the problem is not only production. There is still military equipment in Europe. It must be transferred to Ukraine.”
Mr. Frederiksen’s declaration and implicit challenge to other European countries to step up their efforts to help Ukraine consumed the final days of the conference and left participants grappling with some existential questions. Are they ready not only to support Ukraine, but also to defend Europe? From a possible Russian attack on a NATO member state? Can democracies stand up to the threat of territorially usurping dictators like Russian President Vladimir Putin?
Preparing for war. Frederiksen’s announcement came after weeks of talks, including with Denmark, about preparing Europe for further conflict. Denmark’s defense minister has suggested that Russia could rebuild its ability to attack NATO territory within three to five years. Some officials Sittrep spoke to in Munich even thought Russia might be ready sooner.
“I have no illusions that Russia will change,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told Sitrep on Saturday. “[Putin’s] The goal is to show that the West is not working, that NATO is not working, that Article 5 is not working. That’s his goal. ”
Hysteria over a potential conflict with Russia has been swirling around Europe for weeks. Swedish Defense Secretary General Michael Biden’s warning in early January that all Swedes should prepare for war comes after Sweden has been publishing pamphlets for years warning its citizens of full-scale sabotage by foreign powers. Even though he had issued it — it went viral on TikTok and he hung up. A row of children’s protection services in Sweden has been besieged by frightened children and teenagers.
And late last month, a senior British military official, General Patrick Saunders, warned that Russia intended to “overwhelm our system and our way of life” and urged Britons to engage in a level of mobilization not seen since World War II. He urged them to prepare. II forced access to reporters at 10 Downing Street and made it clear that he was not reinstating conscription.
NATO allies are preparing for a possible Russian challenge in almost every respect, whether it’s a ground attack or a debilitating cyber attack. “Russia’s goal is to be able to challenge us in all areas and at all levels,” a NATO official told Sitrep on Sunday. Much depends on what happens in Ukraine, but Russia is dramatically increasing production of artillery shells, tanks, armored vehicles and missiles, officials said.
production problems. Frederiksen believes that most NATO allies and NATO neighbors can provide Ukraine with more weapons without increasing production, but in order for Ukrainians to prepare for another attack on Russia in 2024, Most allies still want to increase production, they say. “One of the challenges we have now is to have a defense industrial base in Europe that can adapt to large-scale wars as well as peacetime situations,” Sweden’s Defense Minister Pal Jonsson told Sitrep. Told.
Karas, who first called on the EU to buy ammunition for Ukrainians last year, is now calling on the EU to issue war bonds to help defend Kiev.
But of course, this also applies to participants listen every year From European leaders in Munich: We need to do more.Some analysts also disrespected Frederiksen’s announcement is not inherently new: Denmark announced it would provide 19 artillery pieces to Ukraine in April 2023.
On the other hand, there are also questions about what NATO allies and Europe actually need to do to prepare for a possible broader war with Russia. NATO is establishing its own undersea research center, and officials are considering efforts to further strengthen data cables and oil pipelines after the Baltic Connector gas pipeline was severed last year. said. Some countries are considering issuing more pamphlets to help civilians prepare for the worst, as the Swedes are already doing. The Allies may need to start building roads strong enough to transport more tanks.
“If Russian soldiers set foot on NATO territory, we will defend them to the hilt.” Said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Ukraine must defeat Russia (even more so than his boss, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has said), and told the NATO ally that it would have to give the NATO ally a military equivalent of 2%. It became a hot topic at the conference, calling for action to go beyond the promise to spend. GDP on defense.
Democracy versus authoritarianism. But even as U.S. and European officials looked on the bright side of Ukraine’s prospects for repelling Russian aggression, the U.S. House of Representatives failed to pass $60 billion in additional military aid for two weeks. There were voices of dissatisfaction in Kiev about the decision to go into recess. In the case of Ukraine, it was the same with many Ukrainian troops rationing ammunition.
That’s not what Ukrainians think will happen under Putin. “Everyone, please remember that dictators don’t go on vacation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told a conference on Saturday.
And in Belarus, in northern Ukraine, where the government of President Vladimir Putin’s loyalist Alexander Lukashenko has waged a wide crackdown after a disputed 2020 election, the rebels are also under attack by the democratic nation’s dictator. We are concerned that we will not be able to take a strong response. “I’m sorry, but I think the dictator does not respect democracy,” Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya Said At a panel discussion late Saturday night. “Sometimes they are slow to make decisions. Sometimes they are not decisive. They are not united.”
“What is the real red line that democracy exercises its power over?” she added. “It’s not orange, it’s not blue, it’s not teal, [a] red line. “
About buttons
What should we be paying attention to if it isn’t already?
One bill to rule them all. The topic of the meeting, both on stage and in whispers in the hallways, was whether the nation’s major national security funding bill, which has been pending in Congress for months, would be passed. Some $95.3 billion, including more than $60 billion to Kiev, is considered critical to helping Ukraine continue its fight against Russia. In fact, the White House blames the fall of the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka to Russian forces this weekend on the Republican blockade of the bill.
We spoke with Sen. Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the bill’s sponsor, about this story and his conversation with Zelensky at the MSC. Risch said he is “cautiously optimistic” the bill will pass. “I conveyed that directly to Mr. Zelenskiy,” he said.
The bill passed the Senate 70-29, citing sharply divided Republican positions on Ukraine and complaints from House Speaker Mike Johnson that the bill does not do enough to secure the U.S.-Mexico border. It is currently stuck in the House over procedural disagreements from both sides. .
Ukrainians and other European allies are nervous.
China and Ukraine. One of the biggest “what ifs” of the Ukraine war that is keeping Western defense planners up at night is the prospect that China will begin to more fully embrace and militarily support a Russian invasion. So far, China’s support for Russia has been limited, but trade relations remain an important lifeline for Moscow.
That’s why one of the most important side talks we saw this weekend was late Saturday when Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Kleba left the public reading of the meeting frustratingly but understandably vague. “We agreed on the need to maintain contacts and continue dialogue between Ukraine and China at all levels,” he said.
Meanwhile, Mr. Wang tried to convey a cautious public message to MSC attendees about China’s position on Ukraine, and of course, in roundabout and cautious diplomatic language, said that China “does not support countries in conflict areas or parties to conflict.” We will not sell lethal weapons.” Don’t cause “conflicts” and “take advantage of the situation.”and he made no explicit mention An “unlimited” partnership between Russia and China announced in February 2022.
Another line was crossed. Sweden’s Defense Minister Boris Johnson told Sitrep on Saturday that the 19 NATO allies will meet the alliance’s commitment to spend the equivalent of 2% of GDP on defense by the end of 2024. This is a higher number than previously stated by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Quoted. Mr Johnson said NATO defense ministers understood this at their latest ministerial meeting in Brussels this week. (Sweden attended the meeting as an invitee to the alliance.)
“If Sweden joins later, we will have 20 allies,” said Johnson, who received a 2% approval rating. However, he would not publicly name the 19th ally to achieve the goal.
snap shot
Conference attendees mingle at a dinner reception at the Munich Royal Palace during the Munich Security Conference on February 17. Johannes Simon/Getty Images
quote of the day
“We never thought we would see the day when Republican senators would try to terminate the deal with President Putin, while the leader of the Green Party opposed negotiations and insisted on delivering more weapons. ”
—Die Zeit International correspondent Jorg Rau speaks role reversal This year in Munich.
His statement comes after Sen. J.D. Vance said at Sunday’s conference that even if passed, the stalled Ukraine aid package would not “fundamentally change the realities” on the war front, and that Russia has no right to peace negotiations. This was done after claiming that there was an incentive to do so. Ricarda Lang, co-leader of Germany’s Green Party, countered that Putin has repeatedly shown that he is “not interested in peace at the moment.”
[ad_2]
Source link
