Europe’s populist forces are growing stronger

There will be big elections this year, and one of the biggest is the European Parliament elections, which start on June 6th.

So far, the euro regime has not had to worry about EU-wide democratic uncertainty. The cozy arrangement between Europe’s three main parties – the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre-left Social Democratic Party (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe (RE) – is likely to be a comfortable arrangement, whatever the exact outcome. , never mind the voters, the same old club will be splitting plum jobs, especially the European Commission Presidency.

But this time, there’s an element of danger for the big boys. The Liberals could lose third place and fall to fourth, fifth, or even sixth place. That would undermine the legitimacy of the union, not to mention the future career options of Emmanuel Macron, the EU’s most senior liberal politician.

The biggest threat to the old order is Europe’s right-wing populists. According to Euractic’s latest seat forecast, the right is expected to gain a significant number of seats, with the two largest populist factions set to win a further 36 seats. Meanwhile, the Liberals are expected to lose 15 seats and the Greens 20.

The projections show RE retaining roughly third place (in terms of number of MPs), but it is a waxing and waning situation. In fact, there are several reasons why populists are stronger than their rough seat numbers suggest.

First, as mentioned above, European populism is divided into two main groups: the national conservative ECR and the hard-right ID. If they were counted together, they would thoroughly reform not only the liberals but also the socialists, coming second only to the European People’s Party.

Second, the ECR and ID groups each have a larger vote share (according to the current study) than the RE. It is just a peculiarity of the system that gives liberals slightly more seats.

Third, there are many more right-wing populists hiding among the “non-incrits.” This is the remaining slot in the European Parliament and includes all MEPs who are not part of the formal Eurogroup. These include Hungarian MPs from Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party. If they join either the ID or ECR groups, the Liberals will most likely lose their third place spot.

Fourth, the June elections could revive enough EPP and populist MPs to form a centre-right majority in the European Parliament. At least on some issues, populists could offer the EPP an alternative to its usual coalitions with centrists and centre-left parties. This would disrupt and likely destabilize parliamentary dynamics.

Finally, the populist center of gravity is shifting westward. While the hard right is losing ground in Poland, it is rising in the richest and most powerful economies (such as Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands). Financial negotiations and their effects in the EU will take on an increasingly populist tone.

There is another point worth noting about the upcoming election. It will be the first time the EU votes for a new parliament without the participation of the UK. That should be a comfort to those who remain in the UK. The populist right is making big inroads in Europe, but at least Britain won’t be involved. Long live Brexit.