Europe’s oldest country: What is behind Italy’s aging problem?

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Italy’s aging population is starting to have a negative impact on the country’s world-famous Dolce Vita.

The growth in the number of pensioners in Italy has barely matched the number of newborns, and Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government’s efforts to boost birth rates have so far failed to reverse Italy’s declining population. .

According to the latest data, eurostat, Italy is the oldest country in the European Union, with an average median age of over 48 years, and together with Portugal it has the highest proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 24%. That’s about 1 in 4 people.

This increase reflects trends across Europe, where the median age has risen overall to 44.5 years. Currently, the number of elderly people makes up more than one-fifth of the block’s population.

“But even more important is the aging trend of Italy’s elderly population itself,” Cecilia Tomassini, professor of demography and social statistics at the University of Molise, told Euronews.

“Specifically, the proportion of people aged 80 and over has risen to 7.7% of the total population, a marked increase from just 3.3% recorded in 1991,” she added.

“Essentially, while the total population has increased by 3.4% since 1991, the number of people aged 80 and over has more than doubled over the same period.”

However, Giovanni Ramula of Italy’s National Institute of Aging Sciences told Euronews that Italy’s “nonni” (a figure widely loved both at home and abroad) is not the problem.

“Making people live longer should be on the political agenda of every government,” he said. “The problem is that Italy has a low birth rate and is having fewer and fewer children.”

Why is Italy so old?

The reason for Italy’s aging population is simple: the number of deaths due to aging far exceeds the number of births.

For the past 40 years, the median number of children per family in Italy has been less than 1.5, Alessandro Rosina, professor of demography and social statistics at the University of Cattolica in Milan, told Euronews. “The latest data shows that the number of infections per woman is below 1.24,” he said.

A birth rate of 2 births per woman is required to stabilize the population.

According to Tomassini, the decline in birth rates began in the 1980s, with occasional fluctuations.

“Immigration flows have only slightly slowed this aging process,” she says. “Otherwise, the impact would have been even more pronounced.”

There was a time when this negative balance was offset by a positive increase in migration rates, but “this is no longer the case,” Tomassini said. “As a result, Italy’s population decline has become more pronounced.”

The fact that older people in Italy are living longer is actually good news, Ramla said.

“Thanks to beneficial policies, generous pensions and free health care, even those who can’t afford it have been able to live longer lives.”

But there’s also a flip side.

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Ramla argues that the country is not investing in its youth as much as it used to.

“Italy should do more to support young families financially, but it has a huge debt-to-GDP ratio.” [140.6% of its entire GDP as of September 2023] “With international scrutiny, we cannot afford to sink further into debt with generous new pro-family policies,” he said.

“The Italian people, like the rest of Europe, plan and dream of having children and families. What is missing is the right policies to help realize these plans and dreams. ,” Rosina said.

“Italy has one of the highest average ages of parents giving birth to their first child.” [in Europe]The main reason for this is that young people are having a hard time finding employment and stable work, and they also face difficulties in owning a home. ”

Parents face the challenge of balancing family and work life in countries that lack financial support and adequate infrastructure for young parents and their children.

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“In Italy, the birth of a child is more likely than in other countries to mean not only a worsening of the economic situation of the parents, but also a complication of life from an organizational point of view,” Rosina said. .

“This country’s restrictive policies aimed at supporting young families send a negative message that starting a family does not add value to communities and is not worth supporting.”

What is the future of Italy?

According to Tomassini, Italy’s aging population and declining birthrate are expected to continue.

“Unless there is a major intervention, such as a mortality crisis or another baby boom,” she says. “In the short term, immigration could act as an important variable that could influence demographic trends, albeit politically slippery.”

Meloni’s government has made raising the birth rate one of its priorities, but so far no concrete results have been achieved.

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The right-wing has cut the value-added tax on diapers and baby formula by half, but childcare costs remain high and almost unaffordable for many.

The country’s biggest fear is that already weak economic growth will continue to decline, eventually leaving Italy unable to cover its pension and welfare systems.

“If the birth rate remains the same, Italy could have only 320,000 newborns in 25 years, making the population structure even more imbalanced,” Rosina said.

“It is not a dystopian future, but simply the most likely scenario given the current dynamics. If Italy does not follow the example of best European policies in this field, the development of the country and the sustainability of its society will suffer. Gender will be at risk in the coming decades.”