[ad_1]
Written by Hae Jun
February 24th of this year marks the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Over the past 100 years, human society, which boasted great advances in civilization through two world wars, has been engaged in another large-scale war for two years since the beginning of the 21st century. War reports from Russia and Ukraine suggest casualties on both sides could exceed 800,000 so far. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the conflict between Hamas and Israel has been going on for nearly five months, with more than 30,000 people killed on both sides, and nearly 29,000 in the Gaza Strip.
The simultaneous occurrence of these two wars tore the world apart and, exacerbated by anti-globalization and geopolitical competition, profoundly changed the world’s political and economic landscape. On February 17, Singapore’s Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen warned at the 60th Munich Security Conference (MSC) that wars are erupting one after another in Europe and the Middle East. The world cannot afford to have three unstable and conflict regions at the same time and must make every effort to prevent conflict in Asia. He also warned, “If for some reason there is actually a conflict between the United States and China, I think it will ruin the future of both countries for the next 10, 20, 30 years.”
Officials noted that strong pessimism had dominated Europe in the recently concluded MSC. Last year, Western countries had high hopes for Ukraine’s counterattack against Russia. The United States and Europe had little difficulty providing arms and funds to Ukraine, and most Western countries were strongly opposed to Russia. However, the situation has changed dramatically this year. Ukraine has fallen on hard times in the war and, after a failed counterattack, has moved into a comprehensive defensive posture. During this session of the MSC, Russian forces captured the important town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. The difficulties faced by Western countries in supporting the Ukrainian military have become clear. The US Congress has shelved a bill that would provide billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, leaving Europe unable to produce the ammunition the Ukrainian military needs. Even more troubling for Western governments is that Donald Trump, on the rise in the election, is skeptical of NATO and opposes spending on Ukraine. If President Trump returns to the White House, Ukraine could face the risk of cutting off military aid.
Ironically, Germany established the MSC 60 years ago to consult with the United States on countering the Soviet Union. Today, 60 years later, Europeans, including the Germans, are once again discussing with Americans how to stop Russia. History seems to be repeating itself, but the thinking and motivations of the main characters are no longer the same.
Let’s take Germany as an example. More than 60 years ago, the Soviet Union was more powerful than Russia today, and the threat of the Cold War was strong. At that time, Germany was not unified and was divided into West Germany and East Germany. Nevertheless, West Germany at the time still advocated the idea of “change through reconciliation,” which later became an important theoretical basis for Germany’s “New Oriental Policy” or “New East Policy.” German politicians like Willy Brandt showed historic initiative and confidence, implementing the New East Policy to improve relations with the Soviet Union and ensure more space for peace and development for Germany and Europe. It was adopted. Of course, it cannot be denied that after World War II, Europe’s greatest security still came from the United States. Through the Marshall Plan, the United States not only promoted the revitalization of Western European countries, but also ensured the collective national security of its Western European allies. Through the NATO organization.
Compared to 60 years ago, Germany seems to lack the independence and confidence it once had. It appears that not only Germany but also older European countries are aging. Despite the presence of the NATO military alliance and the European Union, European countries now appear weaker and more divided, with only a few states in the “New Europe” showing more ambition and confidence. .
Looking at European countries’ performance in the MSC, it is clear that fear of Russia is once again a deep concern for European countries. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned that in the coming decades, the continent will be divided between “a free and democratic Europe on one side and an authoritarian, warmongering Russia on the other.” He called on NATO members to increase military spending, stressing that “effective deterrence is our life insurance.” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said: “Russia does not want peace with us. She boldly announced that Danish authorities had decided to move artillery to Ukraine and called on allies to do the same.
We believe that European countries express a unified hostility towards Russia, but this does not show real unity. Considering the current situation, it actually reveals the decline and fragmentation of European countries. Old European countries such as France, Spain and Italy had a certain attitude towards Russia and the war, while “new European” countries such as Poland and the Baltic states have completely different views. Moreover, certain countries, such as Hungary, are strongly tilted towards Russia. Already struggling to mount a relatively efficient and united countermeasure, the large and unwieldy EU is likely to face further fragmentation and decline in the future.
Like the previous two world wars, the war between Russia and Ukraine was once again fought on European soil. It not only undermines Europe’s security situation but also places a continuing strain on the European economy. On the other hand, the conflict in the Middle East and the war between Hamas and Israel that are occurring at the same time are also having a direct impact on the European economy. Trade routes from Asia to Europe and the Americas have been effectively cut off due to the Red Sea crisis. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, may experience another slight decline in the first quarter of 2024 after recording a 0.3% economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to analysis by the German Bundesbank. There is a technological recession. Defined as a consecutive quarterly decline in GDP. The German economy is facing a number of challenges, including sluggish external demand, sluggish personal consumption, and restrained domestic investment.
Increasing decline and fragmentation may make Europe difficult to manage in international politics and economic cooperation. From China’s perspective, this change does not bode well for China. The EU remains China’s second largest trading partner, but geopolitical tensions have made the EU increasingly wary of China in various areas, including bilateral trade, investment cooperation, and technology transfer. ing. “Pro-American” factions within the EU are even proposing a geopolitical idea of “risk aversion” in relations with China.
After attending the MSC, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi wasted no time in visiting old European countries such as Spain and France. China’s intention is to aim for relatively friendly relations with Europe and to gain geopolitical and geoeconomic space through peaceful communication. However, in the face of an increasingly declining and increasingly dissenting Europe, future cooperation between China and European countries may not be as smooth as before.
Final analysis conclusion:
Pessimism pervades the 60th Munich Security Conference, which could mark a turning point in the history of international geopolitics. The countries of Europe, hampered by war, are in an increasingly obvious political and economic decline, while the gap between them is widening. The world needs to prepare for a gradual decline in Europe.
He Jun is a researcher at ANBOUND
[ad_2]
Source link
