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Europe has cut gas demand by 20% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand will peak next year thanks to renewable energy and efficiency gains, a study published Wednesday says. It was done.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a large-scale shift by European countries from Russian natural gas transported by pipeline, sending LNG prices soaring as they compete in international markets for limited supplies. .
With a limited number of import terminals, European countries were also forced to take measures to curb consumption, but they survived the 2022-2023 winter without reducing home heating or power generation.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis announced that European gas demand has fallen by 20% since the start of the Russian invasion, mainly due to Germany, Italy and the UK.
He attributed the decline to energy efficiency and demand management measures, the impact of higher prices on demand, and mild winter temperatures.
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“Thanks to efficiency measures and the introduction of renewable energy, Europe is well positioned to weather the energy crisis and continue to reduce gas usage,” IEEFA said in the report.
LNG demand should peak in 2025 due to further deployment of solar and wind power, switching from gas boilers to heat pumps for home heating, and further efficiency measures.
The rush to build LNG terminals continues despite imports stabilizing in 2023 and demand likely to peak next year, an international body that studies issues related to energy markets and policy said. .
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Eight terminals were in operation in February 2022, but with 13 terminals scheduled to be operational by 2030, IEEFA risks having an import capacity three times greater than LNG demand by the end of 2010. I am.
He also pointed out that some of the Russian gas that Europe was importing via pipelines was replaced by Russian LNG, and the amount of Russian LNG imports increased by 11% from 2021 to 2023.
However, LNG from the United States accounts for the majority of imports, and there is a risk of creating a new dependency relationship.
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“Europe, which has experienced the risk of jeopardizing the security of its energy supplies by relying too much on one source, needs to learn from past mistakes and avoid over-reliance on the United States, which provided nearly half of last year’s LNG imports. “There is,” Anna said. Maria Jarrah Makarevich, IEEFA Principal European Energy Analyst.
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