Europe was defeated before the next world war began

Even in the face of Russian aggression in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, European governments were unable to take seriously the possibility that wars on the continent might one day have a direct impact. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, they have casually redistributed the so-called peace dividend to other areas of spending while reducing the military. Two years ago this weekend, alarm bells were sounded when President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, but apparently they weren’t loud enough. Will Europe be defeated before the next world war begins?

Battlefields like the First and Second World Wars in Ukraine remind us of the continued need for large ground forces, but the British government continues to reduce the size of its armed forces. Shortly after the war began, Germany announced that it would increase defense spending to meet NATO’s minimum 2 percent of GDP, but that has not yet been achieved, and in any case its ambitions are pitiful compared to the scale of the war. Thing. threat. Similar stories abound across Europe, but one of the few exceptions is Poland, which has increased its defense spending to 4% of GDP.

Next is Europe’s atrophied military industry. A year ago, the EU pledged to supply Ukraine with 1 million shells by next month. So far, we’ve delivered less than half that number. European manufacturers hardly have the production capacity to prevent the complete collapse of the Ukrainian army, much less allow their own forces to go to war. Meanwhile, Russia has significantly increased production of long-range missiles and artillery shells, produced 100 tanks a month, and rapidly increased defense spending. It supplements its own weapons production with an estimated 1 million artillery shells from North Korea and thousands of attack drones from Iran.

Some Europeans still seem to believe that this is no big deal, that America will come to their rescue and that their complacency is not a real price to pay. Well, it may not be such a safe bet anymore. Previous presidents have complained that U.S. taxpayers have to subsidize Europe’s spending shortfalls, but none has been more frustrated than President Donald Trump. European leaders need to start making real plans to fight for themselves if Putin decides to push in the direction of NATO.

But there is perhaps an even greater threat to Europe’s defense dependence than a disgruntled US president. That is China. If President Xi Jinping were to invade or even blockade Taiwan, the U.S. military would likely devote all its efforts to supporting its allies. There is every reason to believe that then is the time for President Putin to take action against NATO members in Eastern Europe. They are calculating that the United States will not be able to force its way and deploy reinforcements quickly even if it wanted to.

Now add Iran to the equation. Tehran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear capabilities, has an extensive network of terrorist proxies across the Middle East, and has long threatened the United States and its allies. We have already seen how Iran can coordinate proxies to restrain American troops. Attacks on Israel by Iranian proxy group Hamas and rocket fire from Lebanon by another proxy group, Hezbollah, were enough in one day for the US to deploy two carrier strike groups to the region as a deterrent. there were. A third Iranian proxy group, Yemen’s Houthis, then launched an offensive campaign against international shipping in the Red Sea. This invasion tied up vast U.S. naval and air assets.

China, Russia, and Iran form a deadly axis, and acting together could pose a dire dilemma for the United States and its allies. If this happens in the coming years, European countries may have no choice but to stand on their own two feet or fall.

But would Western European countries send their young men and women to fight and die to defend NATO members in Eastern Europe, even if they could build up the forces to do so? When Joe Biden decided to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan in 2021, then-British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace formed a coalition with other NATO members deployed to Afghanistan to maintain a presence there. He said he tried. There was no taker. And despite the devastating damage caused by the Houthi offensive in the Red Sea to Europe and global trade, it is willing to join the US offensive effort to stop it. Only one European country, the United Kingdom, has this.

Over the years, European countries have become too accustomed to a comfortable life. I fear that values ​​such as national pride will decline and many people will no longer be willing to make any sacrifices to protect our freedoms and way of life. Our society also lacks staying power. Witness how some European countries quickly tried to find a “way out” for Putin, instead of putting all their efforts into helping Ukraine.

Most of them would like nothing more than for the war to end, knowing that it would mean defeat not only for Ukraine but also for NATO. And after last October’s Hamas massacre, it didn’t take long for European governments to start demanding a ceasefire from Israel before it eliminated the threat to its people.

Compromise and agitation are the only languages ​​Europe understands. History shows that it only provokes adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran, who have no qualms about exploiting such weaknesses.

Colonel Richard Kemp is a former infantry commander.