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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz celebrated the groundbreaking of a new ammunition factory this week, a move that will allow the country to restore its almost completely depleted stockpile of artillery shells.
But despite portraying this milestone as a new German response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began two years ago this month, it also serves as a reminder of how slow Europe’s response was. there were. It will take a year for the new factory to be able to produce 50,000 rounds a year, and that number is expected to double by 2026.
This is too little, too late to help Ukraine when it needs it most, just as the U.S. government’s own aid package may be stalled. And if Russian President Vladimir V. Putin succeeds in occupying and holding parts of Ukraine, leaders say he could test NATO’s commitment to protect every inch of his country. has warned that it is probably too late for Europe as a whole. Next few years.
All of these realities, and new doubts about Ukraine’s long-term strategy, will influence discussions among allies this week, first among NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday, and then at the Munich Security Conference. It will be held at the opening.
At last year’s conference, the topic was whether Ukraine was achieving major successes and whether it would be able to restore the borders that existed two years ago. This year, President Volodymyr Zelensky will appear before the group for the first time since his homeland was invaded.
He will no doubt plead with his Western allies, especially Europe, to provide Ukraine with the artillery, air defense, and drones it needs to maintain its current front line position in a brutal war of attrition.
This is not where the Western Allies thought they would reconvene in Munich. Ukraine’s long-awaited “counterattack” has failed to break through row after row of Russian trenches and mines, and constant surveillance by drones has ended any hopes of a surprise attack, Ukrainian generals said.
Instead, as Russia and its allies export large quantities of shells, tanks, and drones, Ukraine is on the defensive, rationing its own shells and scouring global arms markets for remaining stocks. There is.
Even if the Senate passed a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine on Tuesday, the House’s approval is in doubt, and European defense officials say their own weapons are dangerously depleted and they have little to give. He says there are none left. .
It was the US presidential election that turned everything upside down, and its effects are still being felt.
Former President Donald J. Trump’s comments on Saturday that he would tell the Russians to “do whatever they want” to allies who don’t spend enough on their military made headlines across Europe. This was an unprecedented attack on the unity of the alliance and sent shock waves among the leaders.
“NATO’s promise of protection applies unconditionally. All for one, one for all,” Scholz said Monday at a joint press conference with Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Berlin. .”
Scholz did not mention Trump by name, but said he was “absolutely convinced” that NATO is essential to transatlantic security. “We will stick to that, the president of the United States will stick to that, and I’m sure the American people will too,” the German leader said hopefully.
“Let me be clear on this occasion,” he said. “Relativizing NATO aid guarantees is irresponsible, dangerous and serves exclusively Russian interests. No one is allowed to engage or deal with European security. We will strengthen NATO for the security of Europe.”
Tusk said Trump’s words were a “cold shower” and pointed out that Poland spends 4% of its economic output on defense. “We Europeans should have a clear expectation that our partners, including those on the other side of the ocean, will respect this principle.”
On social platform X, he was even more candid. “Dear Republican Senators of the United States, Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us regain our freedom and independence, must go to his grave today. Shame on you,” Tusk said. .”
The theme of this year’s Munich conference, “lose, lose”, thus seems to sum up the growing anxiety in Europe ahead of Friday’s opening. European leaders are concerned about Mr. Trump’s unpredictability and apparent willingness to cut deals with Mr. Putin without involving Ukraine or its neighbors.
But they also note that even if Trump loses, the days of large aid and arms packages for Ukraine passing Congress are likely over, and so are the days of ironclad security by the United States. I also recognize that this is a possibility.
This means that Europe, whose future involvement in Ukraine is already larger than that of the US government, will likely have to spend much more on its own defense and prepare for a possible decline in the US role in NATO. means.
However, there is little hope that Europe will be able to replace the United States as a security guarantor any time soon. And it cannot be done without significantly ramping up military spending beyond NATO’s goal of 2 percent of economic output. Only 11 of the 31 NATO member states have currently achieved this goal.
That flaw is the root of Trump’s criticism. But Europeans suspect that his long-standing admiration for Mr. Putin and disdain for Ukraine are at the core.
NATO announced Wednesday that 18 countries will meet the 2% target this year.
But numbers are only part of the story. Europe’s ultimate defense is America’s nuclear arsenal, including weapons stored in Turkey from Germany, but there are doubts whether the United States will actually support the smallest or most vulnerable NATO countries. If there is, there is no point.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg appeared to recognize the damage that had already been done, saying on Sunday: And European soldiers are at risk. ”
And Claudia Major, a defense expert at the German Institute for International and Security Studies, said Europe cannot currently defend itself against Russia in a conventional conflict without US support.
Armin Pappelger, the chief executive of the company building the munitions factory, said Europe was too atrophied after the Cold War and its armies depleted in the rush to rescue Ukraine to make any serious preparations to fight Russia. He said it would take 10 years to rebuild. .
But even if it were “okay” it would require three to four years of ramping up military spending and production, he told the BBC.
Kaja Kalas, Prime Minister of Estonia, which Russia just designated as a “wanted” criminal, said Trump’s comments “may be a wake-up call for some of our allies who have not done much in the past.” said.
In fact, what Mr. Trump has done is accelerate the debate about what NATO would look like without the United States at its center.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Verbock met near Paris on Monday with her Polish and French counterparts Radosław Sikorski and Stefan Séjourne about reviving the region, also known as the “Weimar Triangle.”
In a joint statement, the three parties captured the mood in Europe and said the talks took place amid “ambiguity, unpredictability, uncertainty and instability.”
More money needs to be spent to create more certainty and stability, but NATO is still debating whether to set new, higher goals.
Daniel Fiot, from the Brussels School of Governance, said that a common European defense is therefore still something of an aspiration. For Europeans, he says, “feelings are not enough.” “Otherwise they will remain at the level of think tanks. Action, real action please!”
audio creator Tully Abekasis.
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