Europe needs to prepare for loss of US protection

Europe needs to prepare for loss of US protection

European society was stunned last month when former US President Donald Trump made a surprising declaration that, if re-elected, he would give Russia free action against US allies who do not contribute enough to its defense. Ta. The comments sparked widespread criticism across Europe and reignited memories of Trump’s controversial stance on the continent during his presidency, albeit with increasing intensity now.

The sharpness and hostility of his words are particularly worrying given the current geopolitical situation in Europe, characterized by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is the most serious threat to the continent since World War II. It was a kimono. Moreover, we are witnessing increased competition and threats to US influence in various regions, which could lead to the US government disengaging or taking an isolationist stance under the leadership of President Trump. Concerns are growing that progress in the transatlantic relationship could be undermined during President Joe Biden’s tenure in the White House.

For decades, Europe has enjoyed significant resources and protection of interests through its alliance with the United States, and transatlantic relations have been considered reliable and highly beneficial. In return, the United States strengthened its international standing through its alliance with Europe. Even after the end of the Cold War, Europe remained an essential strategic and defense partner for the United States. Until recently, the dissolution of this strategic alliance seemed unimaginable to many.

President Trump’s comments can be seen as a warning for Europe to play a greater role in financing security. It is worth noting that this pressure on Europe is not limited to President Trump, but has been a topic of discussion since the Barack Obama administration. European countries are actively responding to US requests, and many are moving closer to fulfilling their defense spending commitments according to specified schedules. In fact, some countries have already exceeded the required standards.

Trump’s comments could be seen as a wake-up call for Europe to play a bigger role in security financing

Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami

In the current power relations, Europe is caught between two contrasting views. Biden views America’s foreign assets as its most important asset, while Trump sees them as a burden that must be removed. As a result, there are factors at play that exacerbate the decline in self-confidence and require a reassessment of common patterns of dependence.

First, the relationship has become embroiled in partisan competition and division, reaching unprecedented levels of dissonance within the U.S. political landscape. This discord poses a potential danger to Europe, as evidenced by the suspension of emergency aid to Ukraine due to partisan differences, which shifted the balance of power on the ground in Russia’s favor.

Second, this relationship is affected by changes that reshape the structure of the international system previously established by both countries. The era of world peace is over, giving way to a resurgence of geopolitical conflict, prompting the US government to rebuild international alliances to protect its hegemony and global influence.

Meanwhile, NATO faces challenges within the continent, is highly dependent on the United States, and appears powerless without strong American support. Additionally, there are European factions that advocate greater autonomy, particularly in matters of defence.

The reality appears to be that the US government may be forced to take unconventional policies toward its European allies.

Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami

The reality, therefore, appears to be that the US government may be forced to adopt unconventional policies toward its European allies. This is an unfamiliar situation for the United States. The changes in America’s relationships with allies in the Middle East are the latest example of how the region’s importance in American strategy has diminished over the years. Internationally, the United States has reduced its involvement and sent a message to Europe similar to that of President Trump: that allies must take greater responsibility for their own defense. At the same time, this approach gave arch-rival Iran the opportunity to strengthen its regional influence, wreaking unprecedented havoc that continues to this day. Furthermore, Mr. Biden, who gained support from Europe in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has taken a selective stance in forming alliances with European countries.

A breakdown in transatlantic cooperation would also have serious implications for Europe and many international issues. The Iran nuclear deal has created a discordant strain on transatlantic relations during Trump’s presidency. European countries have departed from President Trump’s approach of withdrawing from the nuclear deal and reinstating sanctions and pressure on Iran. This lack of coordination led Iran to accelerate its nuclear activities and move closer to the nuclear threshold.

Moreover, Iran has found courage in supporting Russia from Ukrainian territory in its conflict with the West, becoming one of Russia’s allies in helping it evade sanctions. This discrepancy suggests a possible lack of coordination on other issues. For example, unresolved disagreements could worsen the situation in Ukraine, prompt Russia to escalate its actions, intensify its efforts to undermine NATO, and change the dynamics of the conflict in Europe.

The immediate concern is that Europe could suddenly lose the protective shield provided by the United States. If this were to happen, Europe would be left alone to face Russia’s formidable nuclear arsenal with limited defense capabilities and relatively modest deterrence. Years of military complacency and strong dependence on Washington have fostered the idea that American support is boundless and unconditional.

Furthermore, European countries have different and sometimes conflicting interests. Relying on the EU as an alternative therefore remains an unrealistic option for the foreseeable future.

After years of heavy reliance on US military equipment and personnel, there is an urgent need for European countries to reevaluate and restructure their defense policies. NATO launches major effort and overhaul to ensure Europe quickly adapts to anticipated changes in U.S. policy to avoid the possibility of the emergence of a new Middle East marred by chaos and turmoil It shows that you are doing it.

• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is the founder and director of the International Iranian Research Institute (Rasana). X: @Moharsulami

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