Europe is dangerously deceived about Ukraine’s defeat

Europe faces a change in war policy and defeat in Ukraine. Europe’s approach increasingly fails to reflect the growing reality on the ground, while escalating efforts to punish Russia and facilitate the dispatch of troops to Ukraine appear counterproductive.

A good example is Germany, which continues to support Ukraine and has indicated its intention to pursue anti-Russian policies. Prime Minister Olaf Scholz no longer refers to Vladimir Putin as President of Russia, and now speaks of Russia’s leader only by his last name, Putin.

However, Germany will not send long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine and use them to attack Moscow, since Russia knows the full extent of the plan through intercepted communications. The Russians have told Scholz that they will retaliate if they send them, but how that will turn out is left to Scholz’s imagination.

Scholz’s actions are no different from those of any other leader in Europe (with the exception of Hungary) or the ultra-governmental EU. Now they all understand that Russia is winning in Ukraine and that Ukraine is disintegrating little by little.

That’s why French leader Emmanuel Macron is working hard to build a coalition to send troops from NATO countries to Ukraine. At least for now, his opponents are listening but holding back. The lack of support for sending Euro troops to Ukraine is not surprising.

From an operational perspective, it will be difficult to move NATO forces into Ukraine beyond those already stationed there. They may be able to send troops into western Ukraine where there is no fighting, but they know that Russia will use long-range missiles and air power to destroy them.

The Europeans have very few deployable air defenses, and if they move more air defenses to protect their troops in Ukraine, they will be left bare domestically. In fact, they have already depleted air defense capabilities to unprecedented levels by supporting Ukraine.

Most European militaries are undermanned and underfunded. European armies were small and inexperienced in combat. Fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, or the Sahel is not the same as fighting a modern Russian military that is better equipped and has experience in major wars.

Remarkably, all Western plans to defeat Russia have so far failed. It is now clear from the mutual accusations that the “plan” was an illusion.

If the Ukrainian offensive uses overwhelming Western equipment, extraordinary tactical intelligence, thousands of drones and unlimited ammunition, and is still battered, the future is bleak. In a leaked Pentagon report, handwriting on the wall showed casualties of one Russian (or more) for every seven Ukrainians.

The French understand arithmetic, but Macron’s “plan” is even worse than the one the US Department of Defense has come up with. President Macron has hinted that 20,000 French troops will be sent to Odesa. But what would they do there?

The Russians are also thinking about Odesa and may be tempted by the idea of ​​killing two birds with one stone. Dmitry Medvedev, current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and former Russian president, said on February 22:

“We have admired Odesa in the Russian Federation because of the history of this city, the people who live there and the language they speak. This is our Russian city.” French troops in Odessa , serves no military purpose other than to encourage Russian forces to attack the city.

The Russians failed to start the war in Ukraine in good military form and made many tactical mistakes. But then the situation changed, as the Russian army was strengthened and its command at all levels, except for the Russian Navy, was significantly improved.

Russian industry produces more and better weapons, outpacing Western countries, including the United States. Europe and the United States are actively working to improve defense manufacturing, but it will also take years to replace the weapons destroyed in the Ukraine war.

Today, Europe is gripped by a fear of Russia that is not entirely misplaced. Marine Le Pen, leader of the French Parliament National Assembly, said in an interview with BFM-TV (Paris) on March 20 that Russia may not attack Europe because it lacks an army large enough for the mission. said it was low.

But the powers that be in France, Germany, Britain and Poland cannot share her gratitude, no matter how courageous their words may be to their audiences. They are afraid of what will happen next if Ukraine is defeated.

“There is something unacceptable about Emmanuel Macron’s actions, and that is that he is playing politics with war.” Emmanuel Macron said, “You are pro-Macron, and if you are pro-Macron, If not, you are either a supporter of Putin. We cannot play war or peace.”

– Marine Le Pen

Europe is taking an unusual response to the growing fear. Instead of trying to find a way to avoid the Ukraine disaster, Europe has focused on “punishing” Russia, adding further sanctions and preparing to seize already seized Russian assets and hand them over to Kiev. We are promoting. Europeans seem unaware or unconcerned about how their actions will be viewed in Moscow.

Objectively, there is not much Europe can actually do to save Ukraine from defeat. Much has been said about Ukraine’s ammunition shortage, which is a reality, but little has been said about the lack of ammunition to transport to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s real problem is human resources. Morale in the Ukrainian military is beginning to crumble, as there is a lack of willing personnel to serve. These growing signs of collapse are bound to bring about political change in Kiev.

Part of the collapse is reflected in strange Ukrainian military tactics that are bordering on suicidal or insane. The waste of manpower in a senseless attack on Krynkyi was suicidal, as was the attempt to secure Avdiivka, which resulted in heavy casualties and a Russian victory.

Recent attacks on Russian territory around Belgorod also qualify as a deadly suicide mission. The seizure of Russian nuclear weapons at a facility called Belgorod-22 near Belgorod and Ukraine’s apparent interest in missile and drone attacks on the Kurchatov nuclear power plant are both reckless. These are the kinds of desperate actions a leader takes when he knows he’s fallen into a trap.

Germany’s Scholz said he would not accept the Ukraine peace mandate ordered by President Putin. This is almost the same as Scholz saying he would not let Donald Trump win the US presidential election. Mr. Scholz’s position is not only nonsensical, it is also off the mark.

The likely end to the conflict in Ukraine will come when the Ukrainian military deems it impossible to continue fighting. In that case, the military would either refuse orders from Kiev or seek to replace government leadership.

There are already cases where troops refused orders and even surrendered one platoon on condition that Ukrainian soldiers not participate in exchanges with Ukraine. Because they know that they will be sent to prison or used again on the front lines, which means certain death. .

Ukraine is rapidly reaching a point where the Ukrainian military, the Ukrainian people, or both must decide whether it is in the national interest to continue the war or whether it will survive if it continues to fight.

In a sense, European leaders know where things are heading in Ukraine, but they do not want to be honest with their own people or themselves. Therefore, they engage in dangerous acts to support a losing war.

Stephen Brien served as Staff Director of the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy. This article First published on Substack of His Weapons and Strategies and republished with permission.