“Europe is at war – we must act or Putin will push westward,” writes Tobias Ellwood

If your long-term strategic goal is to emulate the hero Stalin, you first paint the West as the villain responsible for Russia’s domestic economic woes. Second, you demonize NATO as an existential threat to Russian security. And finally, you claim that the war in Ukraine is necessary to protect the homeland.

The fact that we joked that this was still about Ukraine but failed to thwart Putin’s broader intentions is due to the West’s failure to understand the bigger picture. it’s not. Europe is at war. Western countries, including Britain, are also involved. Unless Russia is seen to fail, Putin’s adventurism will continue westward.

Indeed, the Russian government’s strategy of constantly frightening the West with escalating threats only fuels confusion and hesitation about how we should respond. At the beginning of this war, Putin succeeded in preventing any form of NATO intervention. Thankfully, we have come a long way from publicly declaring that weapons sent to Ukraine are only for “defense purposes.” This is largely due to Britain pushing the envelope.

Latest developments:

But even though Putin is more Stalin than ever, we still don’t see him as a threat to Europe. Putin is no longer restrained by his Kremlin inner circle or the Communist Party. With Russia’s economy increasingly supported by China and Iran, Western sanctions have had little effect and President Putin exudes increasing confidence.

The latest example of this includes the leak of military documents outlining the principles for Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons. But there’s nothing new here. These documents are many years old. It has long been known that Russia’s plans include the use of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons as part of a broader combat protocol, in clear contrast to NATO. It has far fewer advanced conventional weapons than NATO, and a large low-yield arsenal is designed to compensate for this. Its power is equivalent to launching hundreds of thousands of tons of TNT, which can destroy garrison headquarters and urban areas.

It’s time to rekindle your Cold War-era national strategy skills. If Putin is allowed to publicly speculate about the use of nuclear weapons without being challenged, he has an advantage because the assumption has been made that he will go to use them. He then further exploits his assumptions to intimidate Western countries into taking no action.

There is no doubt that the conflict with nuclear weapons in Europe is greater than at any time since 1962. But miscommunication, accidents and false flags are increasing the chances of losing control of the escalating ladder.

After the war, when challenged by the Soviet Union, the West confirmed that Stalin knew exactly where we stood. Our policy was military containment. Can the same be said today? It seems that our policy is aimed not at allowing Ukraine to win, but at preventing it from losing. President Putin is strutting into the gap, exploiting our weaknesses and buying time.

We must not let the rattle of this nuclear saber distract us from the truth. President Putin and his partners Xi and Khamenei are trying to divide the West. Only our indecisiveness can give them that prize.