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Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said that if U.S. weapons do not arrive, losses in Ukraine could come soon, and Russia’s efforts to destabilize governments in NATO countries and increase defense spending across the alliance. He said it would strengthen the economy and have other disastrous effects. Friday reporters.
When U.S. officials like President Joe Biden talk about why Ukraine’s struggle matters to Americans, they rely on broader notions of democracy and the continuation of international order, and that Ukraine’s losses are a public concern. It does not provide specifics on what it means for Americans. Perhaps for this reason, Americans are divided down the middle on the question of whether the United States is doing too much with Ukraine.
Pevkul said that one of the products of the NATO summit held in Vilnius last year was a new battle plan against Eastern European countries in the event of the fall of Ukraine. “These plans address a variety of scenarios,” he said. “Of course, for obvious reasons, I cannot be too specific, but I can assure you that these plans were shaped by considering the possible Russian posture in our neighborhood. .”
One possible effect of the losses he could discuss is the presence of a much larger and more dangerous Russian military.
“Russia has announced plans for reconstruction and military expansion. It is said that the army will include 1.5 million people. It says that in particular … it will be established in the northwest. [corner near Estonia] It’s a new army. ” This means “the number of tanks will increase by 2 to 7 times.” [armored personnel carriers]…Air defense measures, etc.,” Pevkul said.
Such a military buildup will continue to put pressure on Western democracies, including the United States, to increase defense spending, he said. “We can see that Russia’s war budget today is about 30-31% of the state budget. But this is only military spending. To this we also add spending on other state services directly related to security. We can see that this budget amounts to 35-40% of the national budget.”
Russia has basically adapted its entire economy and society to war. This would increase the likelihood of direct confrontation to justify reinforcement. “Russia has actually managed to seriously strengthen the capabilities of its defense industry and put it in combat readiness. And from there arises an unfortunate and very dark logic: Do all these things and strengthen the economy. “Once you do it or put it in a fighting position, you can’t easily go back. So you probably need to maximize it,” he said.
Another effect of placing a much larger force directly on the borders of the Baltic states is an increase in the type of hybrid warfare attacks that Russia has recently escalated in Estonia and Moldova, Pevkur said. . He specifically pointed to Russia’s recent efforts to recruit Estonian citizens to attack their government.
It could also include new efforts to weaponize migration routes and create multiple crises on the borders of countries like Estonia, similar to how Belarus and Russia began sending large numbers of migrants to Poland’s borders in 2021. There is sex. The better the weather. They’re not going away. Their continued presence in the area means thousands of migrants are waiting for the weather to improve so they can resettle. ”
These efforts will be joined by attempts to undermine Western governments by supporting far-right and far-left politicians, as well as hacking, leaks and other disinformation campaigns, he said.
In theory, a country like Estonia that is part of the NATO alliance should be protected from this type of destructive tactics and, of course, direct military attack. However, Pevkul said Russia’s mobilization and military training efforts suggest that Russia is more interested in preparing for attacks on NATO countries than in defending them. “If you look at Russia’s actions at the moment, you can see that they have no feeling or perception that NATO will attack Russia,” he said.
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