Europe between Putin and Trump – POLITICO

But the biggest fear for most Europeans is not about Putin, but about the United States.

Many were left speechless by the failure of the US Congress to assist Ukraine. And President Trump’s warning that Russia will “encourage” allies who haven’t “paid up” to “do whatever they want” still resonates.

One defense minister asked me, “Does he not understand the value of allies?” (“I’m not scared,” I said.) Many others are finally starting to accept the possibility that they might be on their own next January.

Allies in Eastern Europe have already increased their defense spending to more than 3% of GDP, and NATO Europe as a whole plans to spend $380 billion (2% of total GDP) on defense this year.

However, this far exceeds Russia’s defense spending, even though the Russian economy has turned to war mode and now devotes nearly 10 percent of GDP to the war machine, with European spending falling short of actual capabilities. It will take time to change. . For example, Poland will spend more on defense as a share of GDP than other NATO members, including the United States, but Patriots, F35 jets, Apache helicopters, and other advanced equipment will not be in service until the end of the decade. .

Then there are production issues. Currently, multiple countries produce multiple types of 155-millimeter artillery shells for multiple types of launchers, many of which are incompatible with each other to discourage foreign competition. That has to change now.

In line with this, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has promised a series of policy ideas to ensure that Europeans spend more and spend more productively. He also vowed to appoint a defense commissioner and encourage better cooperation if re-elected this year.

It will not be easy to “counter-Trump” the defense of NATO and Europe, as is now often said. But many people now realize that it has to be done. Even if Biden is re-elected, there is a growing realization among Europeans that the era of strong transatlantic presidents may be coming to an end.