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The February 8 election failed to end the political turmoil that has plagued Pakistan for almost two years.
Pre-election polls had predicted a clear victory for former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party in the 342-member lower house of parliament. But unofficial results showed the jailed former prime minister’s party failed to secure a simple majority.
PTI-backed candidates are expected to win just over 100 seats, while Pakistan Muslim League, led by Khan’s main rival and three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, could win around 80 seats. Highly sexual.
The Pakistan People’s Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has secured 50 to 60 seats, exceeding expectations, and is likely to win the prime ministership it wants.
The coming days and weeks will see intense political negotiations to form a coalition government in the Muslim-majority South Asian country.
Mr Khan’s candidates, who are participating in the polls as independents, will now test their loyalty to the leader after the Supreme Court’s decision to strip them of election symbols. If some choose to side with Mr. Khan’s political opponents, there is no chance of the PTI returning to power.
“Imran Khan will handle his party’s affairs from prison. Mr. Khan’s party plans to form a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and will probably be the opposition party in parliament. His party has a significant “Despite winning the seat, his case will be a logical conclusion,” Kamal Cheema, a political analyst in Islamabad, told DW.
Mr. Khan was prohibited from running for election. He has been convicted over the years in multiple cases related to corruption and leaking state secrets.
Will it become more unstable in the future?
Many Pakistanis had hoped the Feb. 8 election would end the country’s protracted political and economic turmoil. However, the bitter rivalry between Mr. Khan and Mr. Sharif is unlikely to subside in the short term, as no party has a simple majority in parliament.
Pakistan is reeling from a deep financial crisis, high inflation, unemployment and environmental disaster, with many Pakistanis struggling to make ends meet and disillusioned with their political leaders.
“It doesn’t matter who is in power,” said Saira Khan, a schoolteacher in Islamabad.
“Whoever is in power needs to bring political stability to this country, and that can only be done by fostering public trust. So elections are important, but I don’t think they will bring about much change.” Khan told DW.
Maliha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former representative to the United Nations, said: “The voters have fulfilled a divided mandate.”
“This is not good news for political stability,” she added. “No party will be able to secure an overall majority, making it difficult to form a government.”
Mr. Khan’s supporters left in frustration.
At the center of Thursday’s poll was a popular former prime minister who is challenging the iron grip of power by military generals.
In 2018, Mr Khan’s opponents accused military authorities of paving the way for him to take office. But by the time Khan was ousted from the government in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, tensions between him and the generals had escalated. Khan accused the military, which has collectively ruled Pakistan for more than 30 years, of orchestrating the vote.
Mr. Khan also claimed that the United States colluded with the military and rival political parties to remove him from the prime ministership, an allegation that the US government flatly denies.
Following a year-long standoff with the military, Mr. Khan’s supporters took to the streets across the country to protest his arrest. The protests turned violent. Some insurgents began attacking military facilities and rampaging through military residential areas.
In the months following the riot, authorities began trying suspected protesters, including PTI members, in military courts. A large number of PTI and mid-ranking party leaders announced their resignation and expressed support for the military.
Mr Khan’s supporters had hoped for a landslide victory for the PTI in Thursday’s polls due to “sympathy votes” for the jailed leader. That did not happen, and as the election commission delayed announcing the results, PTI leaders and supporters became angry, accusing authorities of rigging the vote in Sharif’s favor.
Some PTI supporters told DW in Karachi that their party would have won an absolute majority if the electoral body had not “changed the results” overnight. Authorities reject these charges as unfounded.
Challenges for the next government
Whoever forms the next government will likely face major challenges. The most pressing challenge is to rebuild the economy. It is likely to become unpopular if it fails to reduce inflation and increase employment opportunities.
Pakistan is heavily dependent on bailouts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The next round of negotiations between the IMF and Pakistan is scheduled to take place after the new government takes office. Tough conditions for financial institutions will likely force the next prime minister to initiate reforms that will increase taxes and further increase the burden on people.
“If we form a weak coalition government, we will not be able to undertake the economic reforms that are urgently needed to put the country back on a path to growth and investment,” Lodi said.
Another major challenge for the next administration will be dealing with the surge in violent attacks along Pakistan’s borders with Afghanistan and Iran. The country’s Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtankhwa provinces have seen an increase in attacks by militants in the past few months. To counter this threat, the next prime minister may need to empower security forces and launch military operations in these areas.
The current political scenario is far from favorable for the next prime minister to implement these measures.
Additional reporting by Haroon Janjua in Islamabad.
Editor: Sean M. Sinico
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