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In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that U.S. crude oil production reached a “record high of more than 13.3 million barrels per day in December.” .
However, EIA noted in its STEO that crude oil production in January fell to 12.6 million barrels per day “due to the stay-at-home orders due to the cold wave.”
“Production is expected to return to almost 13.3 million barrels per day in February, but then decline slightly until mid-2024, and not exceed the December 2023 record until February 2025,” EIA said in STEO. “I am doing so,” he said.
In the latest STEO, EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil supply in 2023 will average 12.93 million barrels per day, including 10.64 million barrels per day from the bottom 48 states excluding the Gulf of Mexico, and 1.87 million barrels per day from the federal Gulf of Mexico. I emphasized one thing. , 430,000 barrels per day from Alaska.
The group estimates that the country’s crude oil production will average 12.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 12.75 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.07 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1,329 million barrels per day in 2023. He outlined that the amount was 10,000 barrels. Fourth quarter.
Looking ahead, EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.1 million barrels per day in 2024, with 10.75 million barrels per day coming from the 48 downstream states excluding the Gulf of Mexico, and 1.94 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf. I predicted it would be a barrel. 410,000 barrels per day from Mexico and 410,000 barrels per day from Alaska.
U.S. production is expected to average 13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 13.12 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.06 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.18 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. ing. The report provided an overview.
EIA projects U.S. crude oil production to be 13.49 million barrels per day in 2025, including 11.11 million barrels per day from the 48 contiguous states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, and 198 million barrels per day from the federal Gulf of Mexico. million barrels per day, and 1.98 million barrels per day from the Gulf of Mexico. According to the report, 400,000 barrels per day will come from Alaska.
EIA said in its report that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.37 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 13.46 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and It is expected to be 13.64 million barrels. In the fourth quarter of next year.
In the previous STEO, released in January, EIA pegged U.S. crude oil supply in 2023 at 12.92 million barrels per day, including 10.62 million barrels per day from the bottom 48 states excluding the Gulf of Mexico; Excluding those from the United States, it was 1.87 million barrels per day. 430,000 barrels per day from the federal Gulf of Mexico and Alaska;
The STEO estimates that U.S. crude oil production in 2024 will average 13.21 million barrels per day, including 10.88 million barrels per day from the bottom 48 states excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.92 million barrels per day from the federal Gulf of Mexico, and 1.92 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to produce 410,000 barrels per day. barrels per day from Alaska.
In addition, the average crude oil supply in the United States in 2025 will be 13.44 million barrels per day, including 11.08 million barrels per day from the bottom 48 states excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.97 million barrels per day from the federal Gulf of Mexico, and 1.97 million barrels per day from the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to be 400,000 barrels. barrels per day from Alaska.
“U.S. crude oil production forecasts will reach 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and more than 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025, both new records,” EIA said in its January STEO. .
“Production growth will continue over the next two years due to improvements in well efficiency. However, growth is slowing as fewer drilling rigs are in operation,” it added at STEO.
In a report sent to RigZone last week ahead of the publication of the EIA’s latest STEO, Macquarie strategists highlighted: Decrease exceeding that of the Gulf of Mexico (-78,000 barrels/day compared to the previous month).”
Total U.S. crude oil and NGL production likewise hit a new record at 20.07 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.56 million barrels from a year earlier, the strategists noted in the report.
However, Macquarie strategists said in a note that despite strong growth, monthly oil data was weaker than expected “as both onshore and offshore supplies were softer than we had modeled.” .
“As we have previously noted, short-term forecasts for U.S. oil production are a thorny issue,” the strategists added in the report.
“In any case, it is still possible that production in December 2023 will be around 13.4 million barrels per day and the withdrawal rate in 2024 will be around 14 million barrels per day,” they added.
To contact the author, please send an email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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