China’s special envoy begins a tour of Europe as Western countries reel from the Ukraine war

European officials, diplomats and observers say the war is far worse than it was when China’s Eurasian envoy, Li Hui, last toured European capitals in May 2023, just before Ukraine’s military counteroffensive. I agree that the situation is different.

And how much has Li’s ongoing roadshow from Moscow to Kiev via Brussels, Paris, Berlin and Warsaw changed Europe’s view of the situation, and whether it will prompt the Chinese government to judge peace? They expect Mr Lee to “test the waters” on whether it will provide an opening for negotiations. .

Yuri Poyta, head of the Asia-Pacific division at the Center for Research on Army, Conversion and Disarmament, a Ukrainian think tank, said, “China’s geopolitical situation is changing and the possibility of so-called peace negotiations is increasing.” I’m thinking about it.”

After Li’s meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin on Saturday, China’s Foreign Ministry said it was “ready to continue promoting peace negotiations, conducting shuttle diplomacy, and continuing efforts towards mediation and consensus-building.” .

Mr. Poita hopes that Mr. Li will use this visit to bring up the concept of Beijing as an intermediary, but he is skeptical that it will be well received. In Ukraine and across Europe, China’s close ties with Russia are hurting China’s image.

A poll released by Ukraine’s Razumkov Center in January found that 72.5% of Ukrainians had a negative view of China, up from 59% a year earlier. Almost two-thirds of Ukrainians view Chinese President Xi Jinping negatively, compared to just over half last year.

“Ukraine understands that the so-called peace talks are not about peace. It is about declaring surrender sooner or later,” Poyta said.

Despite public perception, Ukraine has stepped up its engagement with China, and there are signs that Kiev is taking China’s role in resolving the conflict more seriously than citizens and officials elsewhere in Europe. .

Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong was among dozens of diplomats posing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kiev ahead of the second anniversary of the war on February 24, as the leader It was in the photo posted to X on February 22nd.

Last month in Munich, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba vigorously promoted a meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the two ultimately met on the sidelines of a security summit.

Vita Gorod, president of the Chinese Association of Chinese Scholars of Ukraine, said the public’s perception of China was not shared among Zelensky’s senior leadership.

“Ukrainian people see China as an adversary. But at the same time, the Ukrainian president and officials still want China to sit at the same table and talk with other countries. [Zelensky’s] We will negotiate peace,” she said.

“China is the only country that welcomes Moscow and Kiev at the same time, so I think Ukraine still looks to China for a mediating role.”

Still, analysts said Beijing would have to offer more than just shuttle diplomacy to win the trust of Ukrainians.

During his last trip to Kiev, Li was given a list of steps China could take to help Ukraine other than blaming Russia. These included efforts to repatriate children deported to Russia. Maintaining the openness of the Black Sea grain corridor. He also contributed to ensuring the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which was occupied by the Russian military.

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“China wants to show that it is a responsible player and play a mediating role to gain points on the international stage,” Gorod said.

But if China really wants to make a difference, “we can talk about scenarios for peace talks, but at the same time we need to talk to China about the exact scenarios,” Gorod said, adding that the Chinese government is helping I mentioned possible tactical issues.

Other European officials see Kiev’s efforts to engage with Beijing as a reflection of a broader effort to curry favor with the Global South.

Sources at Li’s dinner with EU officials in Brussels on Monday night said China’s leadership in the loose group of developing countries has given it unique influence, especially since the Middle East crisis erupted in October. He pointed out that

“There is a lot of work to be done for China to become the voice of the Global South. Ukrainians really believe that. [China] The EU official spoke on condition of anonymity.

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French diplomats had little expectation that China would show favoritism towards Europe vis-à-vis Russia, but in a battle of “the West versus the rest,” it would “choose the Global South and move in the opposite direction.” He said he was somewhat surprised by that.

“Paris was expecting China to be more assertive… to help France’s case, to say that the war in Ukraine should end and things like that. “What they did was to take a tougher stance on Gaza and tell the West that Gaza was coming. It’s not very good to expect cooperation,” the diplomat said.

Analysts said this helps explain Kiev’s frequent requests for Beijing to participate in multilateral peace talks that do not include Russia.

Jakub Jacobowski, deputy director of the center, said: “If China engages in talks like those in Jeddah that are geared more toward the Global South, this will mean that it will be among countries that are not fully in the Western camp. It also kind of legitimizes Kiev’s position on the matter.” Oriental Studies, a Polish think tank.

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In the case of Chinese scholar Lu Xiaoyu, who spent a month in Ukraine last year, the situation is simpler.

Lu, an assistant professor at Peking University’s School of International Relations, met with Zelensky and his advisers and described China as “realistic” compared to EU countries.

He said that on the Sinica podcast published this weekend, Zelenskyy said that China could help Ukraine on three issues.

“Firstly, to openly respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. And secondly, to make clear the non-use of nuclear weapons.

“And third, not to sell lethal weapons to Russia. These have been presented as red lines for Ukraine to cross,” Lu said, adding that so far China has not abided by these conditions. He added that there is.