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The format of the UEFA Champions League is set to change from next season, expanding the number of participating teams from 32 to 36, with Premier League clubs hoping to improve their chances of qualifying for the lucrative tournament.
Two leagues will receive additional spots based on their performance in Europe this season, as measured by coefficient rankings.
But with England’s Premier League currently trailing Italy’s Serie A and Germany’s Bundesliga in the race for extra spots, England’s top teams will be paying close attention to two European games in particular this week.
In the Champions League, Borussia Dortmund hosted PSV today with an aggregate score of 1-1 after the first leg in Eindhoven. An away win would severely damage the Bundesliga’s chances of securing additional European spots, but it would be good news for the Premier League.
But the most interesting match is the Europa League. After the first leg in Germany, the Bundesliga side won 1-0 at West Ham United’s host SC Freiburg. This match is basically a head-to-head battle of UEFA coefficients, and if West Ham wins, the Premier League’s coefficient ranking will be strengthened, while the Bundesliga’s coefficient will be weakened.
Italy’s Serie A ranks quite high in the coefficient rankings, and there will also be further intrigue surrounding the fate of Inter Milan, AC Milan, Atalanta, Roma and Fiorentina. However, what are the chances that the Premier League will send five teams to next season’s Champions League? We’ll explain it all below.
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Why are there additional Champions League spots available?
The Champions League will be expanded from the current 32 teams to 36 teams at the beginning of next season. The Athletic Format changes are explained in detail below.
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How the new Champions League format works
Of the four additional group stage spots, one spot will be given to the country that finished the season in fifth place in the UEFA Association Club Coefficient Rankings (currently France), and the other spot will be given to lesser domestic champions from around the continent through qualifying. will be acquired. Round. The remaining two teams will be sent to the countries of the clubs with the best results in this season’s European competitions.
The latter two have been dubbed “Europe’s performance spots” by UEFA, with the fifth-placed Premier League team potentially advancing directly to next season’s group stage.
So which country is leading the race to qualify for the Champions League?
While we wait to see which teams will make up the quarterfinal lineups in all three competitions, Italy and Germany are leading the way.
But that’s all.
| position | nation | coefficient points | lively club |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Italy |
16.571 |
5/7 |
|
2 |
Germany |
15.500 |
4/7 |
|
3 |
England |
15.000 |
6/8 |
|
Four |
France |
14.416 |
3/6 |
|
Five |
Spain |
13.812 |
4/8 |
|
6 |
Czech Republic |
13.000 |
3/4 |
|
7 |
Belgium |
12.400 |
2/5 |
Manchester United and Newcastle United’s fourth-place finishes and early exit from the Champions League have hurt England’s chances of finishing in the top two. However, Arsenal’s penalty shoot-out victory over Porto and Manchester City’s convincing performance played a major role.
However, that help was quickly thwarted by Roma beating Brighton 4-0 at the Stadio Olimpico and West Ham losing 1-0 away to Freiburg in the first leg.
Roma’s emphatic victory helped put Italy in a very strong position, despite their neighbors Lazio being eliminated in the last 16 of the Champions League. Inter take the lead over Madrid, where they will face Atlético, while their four Serie A peers (Milan, Atalanta, Roma and Fiorentina) are poised to advance to the quarter-finals of the Europa League and Europa Conference League.
Brighton’s first taste of European knockout football ended in a crushing defeat (Photo: Andreas Solaro / AFP via Getty Images)
Germany will need to keep England at bay on the coefficient table to secure an extra spot. To that end, Dortmund could use home advantage to knock PSV out of the Champions League after RB Leipzig lost to Real Madrid.
And on Thursday, West Ham host Freiburg in the Europa League as they look to overturn a one-goal deficit and could be the biggest in the world of coefficients. Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen will have big hopes of facing Azerbaijan’s Qarabag after coming away with a 2-2 draw.
France and Spain, who sit below England, are likely to struggle to challenge for one of the two remaining Champions League spots after half their European squads have been eliminated.
What should Premier League clubs do this season?
I wish it were as simple as saying “Arsenal need to reach stage X and Liverpool need to avoid elimination until Y and Villa reach stage Z”, but there are very There are many moving parts and the calculations become incredibly complex.
Essentially, this is a case where English clubs generally need to advance as far as possible in their respective competitions, winning representation from their nearest rival country in the process.
Manchester City have won all eight of their Champions League games this season (Photo: Copa/Getty Images)
Champions League winners Manchester City remain favorites to win the Champions League, while Arsenal have reached the quarter-finals for the first time in 14 years. For Friday’s draw, it’s important to avoid each other for as long as possible.
In the Europa League, Liverpool is the target as the favorite to win the Europa League. And with Brighton almost eliminated and West Ham’s tournament future hanging in the balance, they may need to live up to the hype.
Bookmakers are expecting England to win it all on the trophy front as Aston Villa stand alone as favorites to win the Conference League, but a goalless draw away at Ajax last week means they are unlikely to reach the last 16. The situation is dangerous. A win at Villa Park on Thursday will further strengthen their status as title favorites.
Who will benefit from the possibility of additional Champions League spots?
It could be doubly beneficial for Emery and his players to reach the latter stages of the Conference League, as they are among the teams likely to finish fifth.
In fact, they are now the team most likely to finish fifth after losing 4-0 at home to nearest challengers Tottenham on Sunday. Unai Emery’s side remain firmly in fourth place, but the winners have two points with one game in hand.
Tottenham dealt a serious blow to Aston Villa at Villa Park (Photo: Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)
Manchester United feel like they have too much work to do, with back-to-back losses to Fulham and Manchester City ensuring another spot in the Europa League.
Here are Opta’s top 5 predictions:
Tottenham are most likely to finish fourth, with a 60.9% chance of finishing fourth.
How do I earn Factor Points?
As the graph above shows, there are still a lot of points left. Since there are fewer teams in Europe that can win, their value will further increase, and the difference between them and the overall rankings will become even larger.
The coefficients contributing to its ranking are calculated as an average rather than a sum, to offset the advantage gained by countries with greater representation in Europe. The equation is simple. It is the number of points accumulated by domestic teams divided by the number of competing teams.
Therefore, each British team’s points are divided by eight, as there were eight British teams competing in Europe at the start of the season.
Here’s how to accumulate points for each country:
UCL = UEFA Champions League, UEL = UEFA Europa League, UECL = UEFA European Conference League
- 2 – Complete group stage wins (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 1 – All wins in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 1 – All group stage combinations (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 0.5 – All draws in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 4 – Group Stage Bonus Participation (UCL)
- 4 – Round of 16 Bonus Participation (UCL)
- 4 – Group Winner (UEL)
- 2 – Group runner-up (UEL)
- 2 – Group Winner (UECL)
- 1 – Group runner-up (UECL)
- 1 – Clubs in each round reached from round 16 (UCL, UEL)
- 1 – Clubs from each round advance from the semi-finals (UECL)
(Top photo: Nesimages/Michael Bulder/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)
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