Breakaway regions of Europe seek protection from Russia.Here’s what you need to know

CNN
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Pro-Russian rebels active in part of Moldova’s separatist group have called on President Vladimir Putin to protect the region from what they say is a threat from the Moldovan government.

Transnistria, which illegally separated from Moldova following the collapse of the Soviet Union, remains firmly within the Kremlin’s orbit while Moldova, which borders Ukraine, seeks to join the European Union.

At a special congress on Wednesday, Transnistrian politicians called on Moscow to protect their country from “increasing pressure from Moldova,” with the Kremlin later saying that protecting “compatriots” was a priority. This was reported by Russian state media RIA Novosti.

The meeting initially sparked fears that Moscow would pursue a long-standing plan to destabilize Moldova’s increasingly pro-Western government, but Moldova dismissed it as “propaganda.”

Here’s what you need to know:

Meetings of Transnistria’s Parliamentary Assembly, a Soviet-era decision-making model, are rare but often important. Transnistria was created by the Congress of Deputies in 1990, and two years later war broke out between Moscow-backed separatists and the emerging Republic of Moldova.

No country officially recognizes Transnistria, but Russia has steadily reduced its military presence over the decades, now numbering around 1,500 troops.

The parliament’s last meeting before Wednesday was in 2006, when it passed a referendum on joining Russia. When Transnistria politicians unexpectedly announced new talks, analysts suggested this could lead to new calls for unification with Russia. Officials in Moldova and Ukraine downplayed the speculation.

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The parliament adjourned without reaching this extreme outcome and instead passed a resolution calling on Russia to provide the more than 220,000 Russian citizens in Transnistria with greater “protection” from the Moldovan authorities.

According to Russian state media TASS, the resolution states, “Transnistria will persistently fight for its own identity, the rights and interests of the Transnistrian people, and will renounce the protection of the Transnistrian people, despite any threats or external pressure.” It says “No.”

“Protecting the interests of our fellow Transnistrian residents is one of our priorities,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

Moldovan authorities dismissed the meeting as an attempt to stir up “hysteria”.

“There is no risk of the situation escalating and becoming destabilizing in this region of our country,” spokesman Daniel Boda wrote on Telegram. “What’s happening in Tiraspol?” [the region’s capital] This is a propaganda event. ”

In a statement to CNN, Moldova’s reintegration agency said: “We reject Tiraspol’s propaganda declarations and insist that Transnistria benefits from peace, security and economic integration policies with the EU that are beneficial to all its citizens. It’s a reminder that I’m there.”

Russia’s war in Ukraine had a major impact on Transnistria’s economy. Ukraine closed its border with Transnistria at the start of the war, cutting off about a quarter of the enclave’s trade. The company still receives Russian gas for free, but the agreement allowing gas shipments through Ukraine expires in December, and there is no guarantee it will be extended.

The war also spurred Moldova’s efforts to resolve its decades-long conflict with Transnistria. Partly in response to the war, the EU granted Moldova candidate status in June 2022 and gave the green light to start accession negotiations in December 2023.

Moldova’s President Maia Sandu has expressed interest in joining the EU without Transnistria, but reunification could streamline the process. A recent blog from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that for Transnistria, “Moldova’s strategy is to hasten the process by making life as difficult as possible.”

In this vein, Moldova unexpectedly abolished tariff relief measures for Transnistrian companies in January, forcing both Transnistria and Moldova to pay surcharges.

Dumitru Minzarari, a lecturer in security studies at the Baltic National Defense University, told CNN that Transnistria’s decision to hold the special meeting was “directly triggered” by Moldova’s reintroduction of tariffs.

“By granting tax exemptions to separatist areas, the Moldovan government was effectively funding the survival of the separatist regime in Tiraspol,” Minzarari said, adding that the government no longer has to tolerate this arrangement. That’s what he felt.

Minzarali said the conflict had created an opportunity for Russian authorities to “fish in difficult waters.”

If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had gone according to plan, it would have captured the capital, Kiev, in a matter of days, the rest of the country in a few weeks, and moved across Ukraine’s coastline to the southwestern city of Odesa, near Transnistria. I would have done it.

Major General Rustam Minekayev, commander of Russia’s Central Military Region at the time, said that one of the objectives of the so-called “special military operation” was to move through southern Ukraine to Transnistria, as Russia sought to “reunite with its compatriots.” He said the purpose was to establish a corridor. abroad. ”

Ukraine halted Moscow’s advance in Kherson, about 350 kilometers (220 miles) from Transnistria, but analysts stressed that Russia retained the Moldovan design.

The Institute for War Studies, a US-based think tank, warned in a report last week that “the Kremlin seeks to use Transnistria as a proxy for Russian control that can be used to derail Moldova’s EU accession process.” . .

Just as Russia deemed Ukraine’s transition to the EU in 2014 unacceptable and used military force to stop it, Moldova is keen to do the same. CNN last year viewed a document prepared by Russia’s security agency, the FSB, detailing a plan to destabilize Moldova and prevent it from moving toward the West.

Putin justified Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and military operations in Donetsk and Luhansk as an effort to protect the Russian-speaking population of eastern Ukraine, which he claimed was under threat from Kiev.

Minzarari said there were “strong similarities” between that rhetoric and that used recently by the Transnistrian government. President Vadim Kranoselsky claimed in an interview with RIA Novosti that the Moldovan government is preparing terrorist attacks against Transnistria ahead of a possible invasion, without providing evidence.

But other analysts say that, rather than emphasizing Russia’s influence in the region, the situation in Transnistria is a reminder of how Russia has so far failed to achieve key war objectives. claims.

“Russia’s rejected appeal to annex Transnistria has become a major PR coup for Ukraine, with what commentators believed two years ago to be a modest war goal now beyond Russia’s reach. It will serve as a reminder to Russians and Ukrainians that they can’t even be entertained,” Ben Dubow said. A non-resident researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis told CNN.