Biden vs. Trump is both static and unstable. What could change the situation?

But while the political environment appears static, there is also potential instability arising from the frustration many voters feel with their choices. What could change the balance by November? Are there any known unknowns that could still make a difference?

Some unknowns are clear. a health episode affecting either Mr. Biden, 81, or Mr. Trump; 77, Both men qualify as the oldest candidates in history to run for president, which would make a dramatic impact. Several unknown factors are difficult to assess, chief among them being that an independent or third-party candidate could siphon enough votes in enough states to significantly impact the outcome. .

When Bill Galston of the Brookings Institution was asked about all of this, he quickly responded with 10 questions, the answers of which are unknown today but could probably influence public attitudes enough to change the trajectory of the campaign. He said there is.

Among them: Will inflation fall enough for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, thereby giving consumers and borrowers a sense that the worst is over? Will U.S.-Mexico border crossings slow to the point that immigration becomes less important in voters’ minds? Will the war in Gaza subside enough for Biden to heal the wounds of his fractured foundation?

Similarly, will Trump be convicted of a serious crime before the election? Does the former president have enough money to fund and campaign for Biden and the Democratic Party? Will confusion among Republicans in states like Michigan and Arizona affect Trump’s vote tally? Will Nikki Haley’s voters really balk at supporting Trump in enough numbers to oust him?

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both running as incumbents, with one currently in office and the other serving for four years before being re-elected in 2020. Almost everything there is to know about them is already known, or so it would seem.

The Biden team is betting that Trump’s strength in the polls is due to amnesia among the electorate. They will spend hundreds of millions of dollars reminding people in battleground states of the worst parts of Trump’s presidency and personality. If their bets are correct, undecided voters could join Mr. Biden’s column.

Some Republican strategists see the issue matrix as almost completely solidified and tilted against Biden. They acknowledge the good economic news: the stock market continues to rise and the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low. The US economy is stronger than any other economy in the world.

But Republicans say that for many Americans, the prices of gas, groceries and mortgages, which are higher than they were when Biden took office, are the most important factor in determining the economy and their own well-being. claim. For families struggling financially, they say the reaction to the current situation can be summed up in four words: It means that prices are too high. Biden has only a few months left to change that perception.

The world situation is not working in Biden’s favor. His work in forming an alliance to support Ukraine in its war with Russia drew praise at the time. Now he is fighting to get Congress to approve significant additional aid at a time when Ukrainians desperately need more aid.

The war in Gaza has divided the Democratic Party. Biden is torn between his longtime support for Israel and calls for more efforts to pressure Israel to take steps to alleviate the humanitarian crisis for Palestinian civilians trapped in combat zones. . China and Iran are increasingly concerned about international instability.

What if something else happens? Even if a foreign policy crisis occurs late in a presidential campaign, the rally round effect usually favors the incumbent president. Some Democrats now worry that a new crisis could be costly for Biden, further raising awareness of the international turmoil he oversees. .

Some voters have told pollsters that they might reevaluate their support for Trump if he is convicted. No one knows whether that is really the case, and if so, how many voters think so. In battleground states, the behavior of a small number of voters could change the outcome.

Few analysts see the New York case over hush money payments to adult film actresses and allegations of falsifying business records as rising to the level of political importance. That leaves two cases related to overturning the 2020 election (one federal case and one in Georgia) and a case related to President Trump’s mishandling of classified documents. It is unclear when these trials will begin or whether they will be concluded before the election. President Trump’s legal delay strategy has worked so far.

There is an opposing theory among some Republicans about the impact of a possible conviction that all charges and fines apply. That could make Mr. Trump a more sympathetic figure among some unaligned voters. This is ridiculous and lacks empirical evidence for many who see Trump finally having to face justice for his actions.

The indictment strengthened support for Trump among the core of the Republican Party, and the party’s nomination process went off without incident. President Trump and his allies are now working to convince a persuasive public that Trump is the victim of a cumulative attack by a weaponized criminal justice system. This is clear from his complaint about the entire charge and the nearly $500 million bail he is currently owed.

One of the biggest unknowns is the influence of independent and third-party candidates. Voters dissatisfied with their choice between Biden and Trump may be looking for an exit ramp. One option is simply not to vote, or to vote in all other races but not on the presidential ballot. Second, it could work with one of the independent candidates.

Current independent candidates include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party member Jill Stein, and liberal African-American academic Cornel West. All are trying to qualify to vote in their states. In addition, the group “No Labels” is looking for candidates to run independently.

In 2016, Trump and Hillary Clinton received about 94% of the total popular vote, with the remaining 6% going to other candidates. In 2020, Trump and Biden had a close margin of over 97% of the vote.

Will the share of independents in the popular vote in 2024 be closer to 2016 than it was in 2020? Several strategists believe it will be, and dissatisfaction with the choice between Biden and Trump has led businessman Ross Perot to I think there is a possibility that the situation will be closer to what it was when I ran as an independent candidate. When Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, Perot received 19 percent of the popular vote. In 1996, Mr. Clinton and Bob Dole together won about 90% of the popular vote, Mr. Perot received 8%, and the rest was spread out.

Another possibility, though still by no means a probability, is that Kennedy would qualify for the presidential debates if he reached the 15 percent threshold with a specified number of votes cast. He has exceeded that threshold in some polls this year, but his support may decline in the final months of the campaign as voters focus on Biden and Trump. There are plenty of them, and this is what has happened to independent candidates over the past few years.

At this point, no one knows whether Kennedy will draw more from Biden or Trump. Kennedy’s name alone will likely turn off some Democrats, but his anti-vaccine stance could appeal to Trump supporters. The fear among Democrats is that third-party and independent candidates looking to advance will get more from Biden simply because his overall support is currently weaker than Trump’s. It’s about stealing.

Galston brought humility to the exercise. “I’ve been making so many mistakes that I start kicking the tires harder than before,” he said half-jokingly. The same should be true for anyone trying to plan for the next few months.