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This is certainly one reason why turnout was lower than historical trends. But it also introduced an equally unusual voting base: people who didn’t like either candidate but came to vote anyway. And exit polls showed those voters overwhelmingly supported Trump.
That makes sense. He was the candidate to blow up the system, but the system was Clinton’s place. But this was more than just an interesting historical anomaly. Exit polls show that in the three states that turned red for Trump that year, about one-fifth of voters said they disliked both Trump and Clinton. Trump won between 20 percentage points (Michigan) and almost 40 percentage points (Wisconsin) among these voters, enough to win the presidency.
In 2020, this vote didn’t matter all that much. First, far fewer people disliked both candidates, given Joe Biden’s relatively high ratings. However, things changed during his presidency. Currently, there is once again a deep-rooted segment of voters who “hate neither.” But fortunately for Democrats, Biden has the lead this time, and that lead has grown over the past few months.
On Tuesday, Quinnipiac University released a new national poll for the 2024 election. The results show Biden holding a 6-point lead over Trump nationally, which is better than Biden among independents (who had a 12-point lead over Biden) and within his own party. This is due to the fact that they are achieving good results.
Before we go any further, note that this is a better poll for Biden than other recent polls. Without going too deep into this, there are several possible reasons for this. Among them: Biden generally performs better in Quinnipiac polls, and the margin of error makes the gap appear wider than it really is.
Moreover, Biden would not have done particularly well in a hypothetical general election one-on-one matchup against former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. She has a lead in this matchup, largely because Democratic support for Biden is not as strong and her independents are flipping. The white woman’s 13-point swing also plays a role.
But let’s get down to business. As you might expect, Quinnipiac also found that both Trump and Biden were viewed more unfavorably than favorably, or in the parlance, “under water.” Independents viewed Mr. Biden slightly more positively, but even then only one-third viewed the incumbent president favorably.
Haley’s numbers are interesting. Nearly 3 in 10 respondents said they didn’t know enough about her to form an opinion, including a quarter of Republicans It’s been almost a month since the Republican primary, one of the candidates. nevertheless, she We lost by 15 points.
Respondents can be divided into four groups (or rather, the Washington Post could and did ask Quinnipiac to do so): Those who like both candidates; , those who only like Trump or Haley, those who only like Biden, and those who are neither. What we found is surprising.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, fewer respondents prefer either candidate enough to reveal their preference, but that speaks for itself. Among people who view only one candidate favorably, that candidate receives nearly all the votes. And among those who don’t like either? With Biden leading by 13 points, many people say they would choose someone else or not vote.
But in the matchup between Haley and Biden, there are enough people to defeat both, with Biden holding a 23-point lead. But far more people don’t like either. haley It’s something that has great benefits.
Of course, there are a huge number of caveats here, including that many voters who dislike both don’t actually vote. (In the Biden vs. Haley race, 6% chose that option.) Moreover, if Haley were somehow to win the Republican nomination in a completely unexpected way, more people would suddenly vote against her. people will start to have strong opinions and the totals will change.
Other candidates are also on the list, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In both Trump vs. Biden and Haley vs. Biden showdowns, he’s drawing in multiple voters who dislike both, but he’ll actually do that in order to do so in an election. You need to run a strong enough campaign to get on the ballot.
But let’s say 2024 is actually Trump vs. Biden, and once again many people come to the polls feeling dissatisfied with those choices. This poll — conducted months before the election — suggests that these voters will switch their support to the incumbent president. And in what is expected to be a close race, that could once again make the difference.
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