[ad_1]
WASHINGTON — Perhaps some voters believe Joe Biden or Donald Trump, or both, will do what Lyndon Baines Johnson did some 56 years ago: withdraw from the presidential race under public pressure. I would still like that.
After all, concerns about Biden’s age have been widely heard, and Trump faces four separate criminal trials. This dynamic has political observers on both sides of the aisle asking the question: Should Trump and Biden stand aside or be pushed aside?
Unless there is death or a medical emergency, that almost certainly won’t happen. And that never happened, thanks in large part to the political changes that accompanied Johnson’s sudden decision to retire.
For decades to come, LBJ’s surprising announcement on March 31, 1968, led to the selection of presidential candidates relying entirely on primaries and caucuses, a system that favored sitting presidents and wealthy candidates. There was a tendency to favor the This includes Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.
Presidential historian Joshua Zeitz said the parties “established new rules that basically created a system of primaries and caucuses.”
Preparing to vote: See who’s running for president and compare their positions on important issues with our voter guide
Thanks to the specter of LBJ, it’s essentially too late for Biden or Trump to withdraw from the White House race after the current and former presidents locked in their Democratic and Republican nominees on Tuesday. And because of the political parties’ responses to his turbulent 1968 election, it was never really considered.
“Therefore, I do not ask…”
Johnson became president following the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963 and won the 1964 election by a landslide. However, in early 1968 he fell into a political crisis.
Growing opposition to the Vietnam War ousted Mr. Johnson, who faced two prominent anti-war figures vying for the Democratic nomination: Sen. Eugene McCarthy and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, the slain president’s brother. . Both won the support of cadres of young people opposed to the war.
On Sunday night, March 31, 1968, Johnson gave a prime-time speech announcing a halt to bombing and urging the North Vietnamese to negotiate.
He added a surprising ending.
“The office of president should not be allowed to play a role in the partisan divisions that are developing in this political year,” Johnson said, before adding, “I have no intention of giving up an hour of my time to a personal partisan cause.” “I don’t think we should dedicate a whole day to it,” he added. . ”
“Therefore, I do not seek or intend to accept the next appointment as president of our party,” he said.
Short-term: Candidates who did not enter the primary election
In the months after Johnson withdrew from the 1968 race, Kennedy was killed, McCarthy’s popularity waned, and the Democratic Party ended up nominating Vice President Hubert Humphrey, a latecomer who never appeared in the primaries. Became.
At the time, only 15 states used primaries to select convention delegates, Zeitz explained. This was at a time when party power brokers, including Mr. Johnson, still had a large say in selecting presidential candidates.
“Mr. Humphrey never ran in a primary,” said Zeitz, author of “Building The Great Society: Inside Lyndon Johnson’s White House.” “And he who was anointed in the conference was there.”
All that changed after Humphrey lost the 1968 general election to Republican Richard Nixon. The general election was a complex three-candidate contest that included states’ rights secessionist George Wallace.
All primaries (and caucuses), all the time
The Democratic Party, and eventually the Republican Party, responded to the 1968 turmoil by changing the nominating process, building on meaningful primaries and caucuses, and theoretically giving voters the power to choose their candidates. did.
Longshot candidates such as George McGovern (1972), Jimmy Carter (1976), and Barack Obama (2008) used the primaries to outflank their strong opponents. They built momentum at the state level rather than among prominent party brokers, and Carter and Obama made it all the way to the White House.
On the Republican side, former California Governor Ronald Reagan used the primary election system in 1976 to mount a serious challenge to incumbent President Gerald Ford. Reagan was elected to the White House in 1980.
Under the pre-LBJ nomination system, a political upstart like Trump would have had little chance of winning in 2016. But his victory in the primary put him in control of the party, and he remains firmly in control despite a massive investigation and civil judgment worth more than $500 million.
time and money
For decades, primaries have tended to benefit incumbents and some wealthy challengers because of two key factors: time and money.
In an effort to leverage their influence, states have held delegate selection contests earlier and earlier in the drawn-out election period. The earlier an election begins, the less time lesser-known challengers have to gather support and raise money.
While some emerging candidates are able to emerge victorious over long election cycles, it poses a major hurdle for lesser-known candidates.
“It’s much more expensive to compete for the presidency,” said presidential historian Mark K. Updegrove, president and CEO of the LBJ Foundation in Austin.
Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the 1968 presidential election on March 31st. These days, the nominee is largely set in stone by that point, as was the case with Biden and Trump this year.
Other reasons for LBJ’s dropout remain important
Mr. Updegrove, author of “Indomitable Will: LBJ in the Presidency,” said there was another reason Mr. Johnson withdrew in 1968 that still resonates today.
Johnson, a workaholic who had suffered a heart attack, worried about his health and whether he would survive his term as president. In fact, he died in early 1973.
Mr Updegrove also said Mr Johnson was concerned that his re-election would “further divide an already polarized country”.
Over the past few years, some Democrats have whispered hopes that Biden would step down from LBJ over concerns about his age and health.
Poll after poll shows voters are increasingly concerned about Biden’s age as he seeks another four years in office, even though he has not been officially diagnosed with any serious health problems. It has become clear that there are concerns.
After all, given Biden’s incumbency advantages after LBJ, none of the major Democrats have been able to garner enough support from the president. U.S. Congressman Dean Phillips took drastic action, but with no results.
Donald Trump gathered delegates
Trump, meanwhile, began his official campaign in late 2022, running as a quasi-incumbent and siphoning off money and attention. That made it difficult for prominent challengers like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to break through.
After Trump was named as a possible nominee, some Republicans warned that the former president could be removed from the race if he is found guilty in one of his four pending cases. I was wondering if there was.
Not likely.
Mr. Trump already has the delegates he needs to nominate as a result of the post-LBJ primary system. In another era, the national Republican Party might have exercised more control as the former president faces four indictments, a wide-ranging libel trial over sexual assault allegations, and a loan fraud trial. .
However, the Republican National Committee is heavily supportive of the former president. After Donald Trump endorsed his daughter-in-law Lara Trump as RNC co-chair, she vowed that “every penny will go to the RNC’s number one and only job: reelecting the former president.” .
“The system has changed significantly.”
At the time, what Lyndon Baines Johnson did in 1968 wasn’t all that unusual.
In the 20th century, four U.S. presidents took office following the death of their predecessors: Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, and Lyndon Johnson.
As Updegrove pointed out, all four subsequently won elections on their own, and all four resigned in the next election.
The long-term impact of Johnson’s decision means he will likely be the last president to leave office before the constitutional term limit for commander-in-chief is reached.
[ad_2]
Source link
