Analysis – Gaza war shakes up European politics from the left

Riham Alkouza, Leili Forudi, David Latona

BERLIN/PARIS/MADRID (Reuters) – Nadir Aslam, a German of Moroccan and Pakistani descent, had planned to vote for the Greens in this week’s European Parliament elections, but decided instead to support Merah 25, an emerging left-wing party with a clearly pro-Palestinian stance.

Aslam, 33, told Reuters support for the environmental party, which is part of Germany’s ruling coalition, had “collapsed” after the Greens’ leader gave a speech last November doubling down on Germany’s support for Israel as the death toll in Gaza approached 9,000.

The shift in support across Europe marks the latest threat from the left to mainstream parties whose projects for deeper European integration are already under attack from the far right.

This tendency is not only evident among the EU’s Muslim communities, but also among left-wing voters, who see a double standard in Europe’s condemnation of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel while failing to condemn Israel for its military attack on Gaza that has killed more than 36,000 Palestinians.

“The rise of far-right and far-left parties will change the European policy landscape and the balance of power among parties,” said Samira Azabar, a sociologist at Radboud University in the Netherlands.

This could have an impact on the EU’s stance on Israel and lead to policies that give more decision-making power at the national level, she said. EU members Spain and Ireland have recognised the Palestinian state, and the Slovenian government is also waiting for parliamentary approval.

Surveys have shown that the far right has grown in popularity in recent years, while minorities are increasingly turning to far-left parties as mainstream parties move to the right on issues such as immigration and cultural values.

An Ipsos poll last month showed the far right is set to make its biggest gains in the June 6-9 general election, with the left group in the European Parliament expected to gain six seats over the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Renew Europe Union.

In France, the far-left French party Les Insubordinates (LFI) has made a pro-Palestinian stance a central part of its campaign to win over Muslim and far-left voters, said Blandine Chérigny-Pont, a historian at Aix-Marseille University.

The party calls for an arms embargo, sanctions against Israel and recognition of a Palestinian state, and in contrast to other left-wing groups has refrained from calling Hamas a terrorist organisation. It has 44% support among French Muslim voters, well above 8% of the overall electorate.

“Some may say they are deceiving the electorate, but who are they talking about? These are citizens of this country who do not have a racist view of society,” LFI lawmaker Sebastian Delogue told Reuters.

France’s Socialist party also calls for recognition of a Palestinian state, but does not agree with the LFI’s position on Hamas.

“LFI is associated with violence and that will not be tolerated,” Socialist Party lead candidate Raphael Glucksmann told Reuters, attributing his surge to third place in the polls with 14 percent support in large part to his choice to distance himself from the group.

In Germany, new pro-Palestinian parties are undermining support for two mainstream parties, the Greens and the Social Democrats, which have maintained staunch support for Israel, citing Germany’s historical responsibility for the Holocaust.

Besides the left-wing Merah 25, other emerging pro-Palestinian parties include socially conservative groups such as DAVA and BIG, as well as the eurosceptic party BSW, which promotes an anti-immigration policy and calls for an arms embargo on Israel.

Supporters of the BSW, whose support stands at 7% in opinion polls, are 50% more likely to recognize a Palestinian state than German voters overall.

In Spain, where tensions with Israel date back to the Franco dictatorship, the government’s recognition of a Palestinian state has boosted support for the ruling coalition’s Socialist Party (PSOE) and the far-left Smar party.

“The Palestinian issue is at the center of Spanish political debate,” said David Hernandez, a professor of international relations at Madrid’s Complutense University.

Mobilize the minority vote

Turnout may be key.

Radboud University’s Azabar noted that turnout among ethnic minorities is often lower than the general population in EU elections, but this time the Gaza war may be the motivating factor.

Foreign policy issues have a track record of influencing ethnic minority votes: In 2016, Germany’s Social Democrats lost about 100,000 ethnic Turkish voters after recognizing the Armenian genocide during World War I, said Teyfik Ozcan, chairman of DAVA, a new party targeting Turkish voters abroad.

Ozcan, the former SPD member, said his party had offered the option of a protest vote that didn’t exist before.

“Germans have the opportunity to say: ‘I’m going to vote for the (far-right) AfD in protest’. Muslims can’t do that,” he told Reuters.

A December survey by the Institute of Political Science at the University of Duesberg-Essen found that one in three Muslims in Germany feel unrepresented by any political party.

This new sense of political representation is also resonating with French voters: LFI has nominated Rima Hassan, a French-Palestinian lawyer who takes part in protests, is active on social media and has petitioned the EU to suspend the association agreement with Israel.

Chama Tahiri Ivora, a 34-year-old French-Moroccan chef, said she had never voted in a European election before but would vote this time.

“Voting for Lima is an act of resistance,” she said. “I don’t know all the key points of the LFI platform, but what she and other members are saying about Palestine is right.”

(Reporting by Riham Alkousa in Berlin, Leili Forudi in Paris and David Latona in Madrid; Additional reporting by Elisabeth Pinault in Paris; Editing by Mark John and Ross Russell)

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