Analysis – Europe is trying to sway Trump’s camp with NATO and support for Ukraine

MUNICH (Reuters) – European leaders appeal to the former U.S. president and his Republican supporters even as they insist they are not dancing to President Donald Trump’s tune on NATO. He is singing a song sheet made for the purpose.

President Trump has provoked intense criticism from Western officials by suggesting he would not protect countries that are failing to meet the transatlantic military alliance’s defense spending goals and even encourage Russia to attack them.

Over the weekend, comments from the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination influenced the Munich Security Conference. The Munich Security Conference is a large annual gathering of politicians, military personnel, and diplomats that often serves as a barometer for U.S.-European relations.

European leaders are concerned not only about the future of NATO if Trump defeats incumbent President Joe Biden in November, but also about the future of NATO in the U.S. Congress as Republicans press for border security measures to pass legislation. He is also concerned that a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine will be put on hold.

Ukrainian and Western leaders say the policy is critical as Kiev’s military struggles nearly two years after Russia’s invasion began. The Russian government announced on Sunday that it had taken full control of the devastated eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka.

European leaders have been reaching out to U.S. lawmakers, business leaders and think tanks as part of an effort to influence the Trump campaign, an effort that began before the controversial remarks a week ago. .

Some of their claims include: Europe is spending more on defense and will do more. This spending and aid to Ukraine is worth billions of dollars to U.S. arms companies. And protecting Europe projects U.S. power toward China, a key focus of Trump’s foreign policy.

“We Europeans must take greater care of our own safety now and in the future,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a meeting attended by dozens of U.S. lawmakers at the Bayerischer Hof luxury hotel. No,” he said.

“The desire to do so is huge,” he declared.

Scholz and other European leaders, including Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is a candidate to be the next NATO chief, have argued that they are becoming more serious about defense for their own interests, not for President Trump’s. .

But they aim to convince Trump and his followers that it is good for them to stick with NATO, as they did during his presidency, despite their loud complaints.

“It is in the United States’ interest to form a NATO alliance with a strong ally that can strengthen our influence,” Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gare Storey told Reuters in Munich.

Late last month, current NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited the United States, in part to pitch the alliance and its support for Ukraine to the Trump campaign.

He spoke at the Heritage Foundation, a pro-Trump think tank in Washington, and visited a Lockheed Martin factory in Alabama that makes Javelin anti-tank missiles.

“Of the funds allocated to Ukraine, a large part of it ends up going to the United States, because they buy weapons, for example Javelins, from American defense production companies,” Stoltenberg said in Munich. There is,” he said.

Citing US concerns about China, he said: “The US represents 25% of the world’s GDP. Together with our NATO allies, we represent 50% of the world’s GDP and 50% of the world’s military power. “So as long as we stand together,” he said. , we are safe. ”

European leaders say the increase in defense spending reflects the view that Russia now poses a far greater security threat.

It also reflects the growing view among European governments that they must take greater responsibility for their own national security in the coming years, regardless of who wins the next US presidential election. .

Latvia’s Foreign Minister Krisjanis Kalin told Reuters: “Over time, the United States will become less inclined to feel that it needs to take full responsibility for European security.”

Eighteen of NATO’s 31 members are on track to meet their defense spending target of more than 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, up from 11 in 2023, the alliance announced. Germany and France, the European Union’s largest economies, are among the countries hoping to achieve this goal.

According to NATO estimates, the United States spent about 3.5% of its GDP on defense in 2023.

But defense means more than just spending money. The United States also brings superpower power, nuclear weapons, and a U.S.-led command structure to NATO’s defense of Europe.

It is an open question how much influence European claims will have on President Trump and Republican lawmakers.

Republican Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, a prominent Trump supporter, showered the audience in Munich with a cold shower.

He said Russian President Vladimir Putin does not pose an existential threat to Europe and that the United States and Europe cannot provide enough military supplies to defeat Russia in Ukraine.

“There are a lot of bad people in the world, and I’m much more interested in some of the issues in East Asia than in Europe right now,” Vance said.

He welcomed increased European defense spending and said he did not expect Trump to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) when he returns to the White House. But he said Europe would need to develop more military capabilities as the United States moves further to focus on Asia.

“It’s not just a question of money spent. How many mechanized brigades can Germany field tomorrow? Maybe one?” he asked.

“The American security blanket has allowed European security to wither away.”

(Additional reporting by John Irish and Andreas Linke; Editing by Andrew Cawthorn)

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