Alarm bell for European defense

The time has finally come for Europe to seriously consider its own defense.

At a rally in South Carolina on February 10, former US President Donald Trump shocked many by recalling discussions he had with European NATO allies during his presidency. In response to a question about whether the United States would support a country even if it did not spend NATO’s 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, he told the audience: Haven’t paid or are you in arrears? No, I won’t protect you.In fact, I encourage [Russia] do whatever they want. ”

The statement provoked a strong reaction, especially in Europe, where many NATO countries still do not spend 2% of their GDP on defense. Some argue that the statement undermines NATO’s principles of unity.

Mr. Trump used his usual aggressive tone, and while the suggestion that the US president would invite Russia to attack an ally is grotesque, the essence of his message has a point. After nearly 80 years of peace under the protection of the United States, European countries should be able to take responsibility for their own security.

Europe is in a difficult situation. The war in Ukraine became a war of attrition. Kiev is completely dependent on support from Western countries, especially Washington. Ukraine fatigue is spreading not just to Republicans but to Americans as well. The Biden administration will not be able to maintain support for Ukraine indefinitely.

Unfortunately, it is increasingly likely that a cease-fire agreement will be reached, leading to Russian territorial gains. This could prompt the Kremlin to continue its policy of reconfiguring the borders of the former Soviet Union and neutralizing Central Europe. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur recently said that a Russian attack on his country could become a realistic scenario within three to four years. Similar concerns exist in other Baltic countries.

America won’t always be there

Irrespective of US politics, Europe’s defense sovereignty will be crucial, and not just in relation to relations with Russia. France has been a leader in this regard since General Charles de Gaulle took command in the 1960s.

In this spirit, President Emmanuel Macron, like Trump, was heavily criticized in a 2019 interview with The Economist. “What we are experiencing now is NATO brain death,” he said, adding that Europe is “NATO brain death.” It was on the “edge” and needed to start thinking strategically about itself as a geopolitical power. Without such thinking, Europe “will no longer be in control” [its] destiny. ” This was a given at the time, but Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to the reactivation of NATO.

Given the possibility of Trump becoming a new president, European political circles are especially concerned about trade, Ukraine, and defense issues. Those concerns are valid, but not because Trump might eventually return to the White House. Politics in Washington is influenced by a variety of factors, most of which the president has little influence over. American politics do not always go the way Europe wants.

But European leaders are far from coming up with realistic ways to increase military readiness on three fronts: the will to defend, well-trained soldiers, and effective weapons, leaving the possibility that Mr. Trump will become president again. I’m flustered while lamenting.

Europe needs to achieve military sovereignty. Recently, some prominent politicians have begun discussing whether the European Union should build its own nuclear deterrent. Given the risk scenario, it makes little sense to do so. Responsible actors will only escalate when the threat from an attacker is existential. Conflicts in Central Europe alone are not enough to cause this escalation.

Moreover, nuclear deterrence will do nothing to address some of Europe’s other security challenges, including issues beyond its southern borders in Africa and the Middle East. For example, Houthi attacks on ships navigating the Red Sea pose a clear economic threat that cannot be resolved with nuclear weapons. Russia will not be the only focus of Europe’s military reconstruction.

open your eyes

Whining about former President Trump’s comments that could tear NATO apart is also not helpful. If anything, his speech could benefit Europe and serve as a wake-up call for countries that have so far lived comfortably under the security blanket of the United States.

There are already signs that some European countries are opening their eyes. France, Germany and Poland have revived the Weimar triangular alliance format, and discussions there are expected to include defense issues. But whatever happens, reinvigorating Europe’s defense capabilities will require close cooperation with the UK.

Germany seems to support France’sforcibly stop persuasion“” – formerly known as “”forced frappe” – the country’s nuclear deterrent. Adding Britain’s own nuclear deterrent to this would be enough for Europe. There is no need for EU-wide nuclear weapons.

what intention We need to reduce bureaucracy and have an adequate budget. Funds must be spent efficiently, and public mood and political attitudes must change (this latter concern is the biggest challenge). In this regard, we may once again be grateful to figures like Donald Trump.

There is another aspect to consider. That is, European countries should be equal partners with the United States, not just profiteers. This would allow European geopolitics to become more independent in the difficult decades ahead, and would also reduce pressure on the United States, whose main challenge is in the Pacific.

Regardless of who is elected president, the United States is unlikely to become isolationist on the national security front. The challenges in the Pacific are too great. But the mood in Washington could shift to viewing the conflict in eastern Europe as primarily a European problem.

The Munich Security Conference just concluded a few days ago. Christoph Heusgen, an experienced German diplomat and head of the conference, put it right in a recent interview about how Europe should move forward.

“Trump is insane. We have to adapt. If he becomes president, we have to be able to stand up to him and say, ‘We will do what you ask.’ It doesn’t have to be. Let us now continue to work together in this alliance that has brought peace to the transatlantic region over the past decades. ” ”

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