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The Biden administration on Friday rejected Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s call for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, but a show of political support for U.S. military aid to Kiev leads President Biden to make concessions to Russia. There were no signs of a strengthening trend.
In a two-hour interview in the Kremlin with Tucker Carlson, a former Fox News host who now broadcasts independently online, Putin offered a lengthy defense of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but the conflict He said he was prepared to resolve the issue diplomatically.
“We are ready to negotiate,” Putin told Carlson in an interview published Thursday. “You should tell the current leadership of Ukraine to stop and come to the negotiating table,” he added, referring to the US government.
The move comes as the Biden administration struggles to win Congressional approval for desperately needed additional military aid to Kiev after Ukraine’s much-vaunted summer counterattack failed to achieve significant results. The Russian leader clearly spoke in a moment of influence.
This is not the first time Mr. Putin has expressed a willingness to negotiate over Ukraine’s fate, and Western officials have long been skeptical of his intentions. But analysts say his call for talks has special resonance because it was his first interview with a member of the U.S. media since the invasion.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials say the best the Ukrainian military can hope for next year, especially without further U.S. aid, is to defend its current position. Still, Biden officials say they are not comfortable with the idea of forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to negotiate with Mr. Putin.
“Both we and President Zelenskiy have said many times that we believe this war can end through negotiations,” a National Security Council spokesperson said in a statement. “Despite Mr. Putin’s words, we have not seen any action that shows he is interested in ending this war. If he does, he will withdraw his troops and stop the constant attacks on Ukraine. right.”
U.S. officials have previously assessed that Putin has no intention of starting serious negotiations until after the U.S. presidential election in November. They say Mr. Putin wants to wait to see if former President Donald J. Trump returns to the White House and offers more favorable terms.
In an interview last spring, Trump said the “horrible” conflict in Ukraine must end immediately and said if re-elected he would broker a deal that would “end the war in one day.”
The Biden administration has supported Ukraine’s stated desire to reclaim territory it has occupied since Russia’s invasion. Russia currently occupies about 18% of Ukraine’s land area.
U.S. officials also said that even though the U.S. has provided more than $75 billion in aid to Ukraine, the U.S. does not dictate whether or on what terms Kiev will participate in peace talks. I have been claiming this for many years. “Ultimately it is up to Ukraine to decide the direction of the negotiations,” the National Security Council statement said.
Many analysts were also skeptical of Putin’s intentions. Sergei Radchenko, a Russian historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said Putin should not be trusted.
Mr. Radchenko said Mr. Putin may be engaging in what was known in Soviet times as a “peace offensive,” or a disingenuous tactical diversion, with the aim of “providing a semblance of respectability to the outside world.” “It was about showing a different face,” he said. Of course we want peace, but the other side just doesn’t want to talk. ”
Some Western officials believe Mr. Putin also has a domestic audience in mind when he talks about a negotiated end to the war. Russian public opinion polls show Russians welcome a settlement to end a conflict that has rocked the economy and killed tens of thousands of people.
Talk of peace could also win Mr. Putin support among countries in the so-called Global South, countries in South America, Asia and Africa, including India and South Africa, which are not allies in the Ukraine conflict. Most of these countries are suffering from high energy and food prices caused by the war.
Mr. Putin appeared to be capitalizing on Republican opposition to Mr. Biden’s request for funding for Ukraine, echoing criticism in recent weeks by some conservative lawmakers. “We have border issues, immigration issues, national debt issues, over $33 trillion. Should we fight in Ukraine if we have nothing else to do?” Putin asked.
Alternatively, Radchenko said Putin may be prepared to make unexpected concessions toward a peace deal that would leave Russia with a foothold in eastern Ukraine, “and then use that as a basis for further aggression against Ukraine. Or they might use it as leverage.” To force a preferred government in Ukraine. ”
Samuel Sharup, a Russia analyst at the Rand Corporation, said Mr. Putin may have been bluffing about the meeting all along. But he said it was worth talking to the Kremlin behind closed doors to find out what Putin’s actual demands were.
“No one knows for sure, and no one will know for sure unless they try,” Charup said. He added that it was noteworthy that Putin had not informed Karlsson that there were preconditions for the talks, such as the removal of Zelenskiy’s government.
Charup also pointed out that Russia and Ukraine are already negotiating on a number of issues, including prisoner exchanges and Ukrainian exports from Black Sea ports.
Regardless of Mr. Putin’s intentions, analysts and Western officials say a major obstacle to potential talks is the reluctance of Ukrainians to compromise with an aggressor who has committed atrocities on their soil. It has said.
“Mr. Zelenskiy is concerned about the domestic political implications of pursuing a different tactic,” Sharap said.
“Unless there is a signal of demand from the Ukrainian side, it is unlikely that there will be any push from the U.S. government” for peace talks, he said.
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