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U.S. officials say Ukraine needs to continue developing innovative ways to attack Russian forces as the war approaches its third year. But Ukraine’s use of a Patriot missile to shoot down a plane last month is an example of how novel battlefield tactics can be both promising and dangerous.
Unbeknownst to the Ukrainian military, the targeted Russian plane may have had Ukrainian prisoners on board, U.S. officials said.
Patriot is a defensive system, typically used to defend locations rather than shoot down aircraft. The Patriot interceptor that crashed into Russia’s Ilyushin 76 cargo plane on January 24 was provided by European partners, according to U.S. officials briefed on the incident.
Russian authorities immediately claimed that the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners who were to be exchanged for Russian military personnel.
U.S. officials would not comment publicly on the cause of the crash, but the officials, speaking privately on condition of anonymity, said reports that a Patriot missile was used were accurate.
The question of who was on the plane is less clear. U.S. officials have not confirmed the identities of the passengers, but said it appears likely that at least some of them were Ukrainian prisoners of war. U.S. and Ukrainian officials say Russia may have exaggerated the death toll.
If there were prisoners on board the plane, which seems likely, the loss of life would be regrettable, U.S. officials said.
Ukraine appears to have acted on legitimate but flawed intelligence. The plane had previously been used to transport missiles and was a high-value target for Kiev, according to Western officials briefed on the intelligence information.
A cargo plane crashed in Russia while a Patriot was fired from Ukraine. Some U.S. officials have encouraged Ukraine to attack from far behind the front lines, given the risk of escalation if U.S.-made equipment is used to attack Russian territory; It states that it is limited to the territory of Ukraine.
Nevertheless, U.S. officials have not criticized Ukraine for using the Patriot system to target Russian aircraft in general. Rather, they argue, this is the innovation that Ukraine needs to embrace.
Last month, American military planners met with their Ukrainian counterparts in Wiesbaden, Germany, to discuss new plans that could help change the dynamics of a war that has stalled for the past year. We talked about tactics.
One question is whether operations with the Patriots are sustainable, especially if Congress cuts off further military aid to Ukraine. The Congressional Research Service estimates that each interceptor costs $4 million. If no more U.S. funds are available, air defense supplies are likely to become strained.
The Patriot was originally designed to attack aircraft, but was redesigned to be used primarily to attack tactical ballistic missiles as tactical ballistic missiles became more prevalent and important on the battlefield after the Gulf War. it was done.
The Ukrainians returned the Patriot to its origins as an anti-aircraft weapon. In January, the Ukrainians ambushed a Russian cargo plane, believing it was carrying missiles. They brought a Patriot launcher closer to the border and fired an interceptor once the cargo plane was within range. U.S. officials said the tactic was creative but not revolutionary.
Ukrainian authorities first devised a plan to use Patriots against aircraft last spring in an effort to slow Russian airstrikes. On May 13, Ukrainian forces sneaked Patriot launchers into areas near the Russian border and shot down five aircraft.
After this operation, Ukraine secretly moved the Patriot system south, where it was used to shoot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet over the Black Sea.
Just a few months later, in November, Ukraine acknowledged the operation, claiming that the use of Patriot had at least temporarily deterred Russian operations.
“They refrained from flying there for a while because they understood that it was dangerous and could be shot down,” Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ifnat told reporters in Ukraine. “The Patriot system provides that capability.”
During the winter, the pace of operations appears to have accelerated again. In December, Ukrainians claimed to have shot down five Russian fighter jets.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the operation would create a “good atmosphere for the whole of next year” and promised further developments in the future. Ukraine did not provide details about how it shot down the fighter jet in December, but military analysts said a Patriot missile was likely used.
The commander of the Patriot battery told the New York Times in December that the battery’s deterrent effect was significant.
“If a pilot knows there is a Patriot somewhere in the area, he will think 10 times whether he should go there to work,” said the commander, using only his first name Volodymyr for safety reasons. insisted that it be done.
Although he declined to discuss specific operations, he said, “Patriot has already demonstrated its range, its really long range, which allows it to shoot down these aircraft.”
michael schwirtz in new york, anton troianovsky in berlin, Thomas Gibbons-Neff with london Eric Schmidt Contributed to reporting in Washington.
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