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Nato Generals prepare for increased risk of war Russia And he calls for investment in deterrence. ukraine You may still benefit from it.
Several senior NATO military officials recently warned that the alliance must prepare for conflict with Russia within days.
Dutch Admiral: “We must recognize that peace is not a given.” rob bauerwarned the chairman of the NATO Military Committee at a press conference after a two-day meeting at the end of January.
Against the backdrop of Russia’s large-scale offensive against Ukraine, which began two years ago this month, the Oslo daily Dagbladet reported that the Norwegian military commander, General Eirik Kristoffersen, said there was now “a window of maybe two or three.” It was reported that he said. This will be the year we have to invest more in secure defense. ”Meanwhile, Michael Biden, commander in chief of the armed forces of neighboring Sweden, also called on his compatriots and politicians to “move from understanding to action.”
Military leaders’ plea to politicians
Experts see this as a plea from military leaders to European politicians for a change in strategy in the conflict with Russia. German security expert Nico Lange said in an interview with DW that hopes for an early end to the Ukraine war are not being realized, supported by Western arms supplies on the one hand and sanctions against Russia’s war economy on the other. I commented that no.
Among other things, military leaders and analysts alike are concerned about shortages of ammunition and new military equipment, as well as Europe’s current weapons production capacity.
In this respect, NATO’s military deterrence potential is closely tied to supplies to Ukraine. Last year, the EU promised to deliver 1 million shells to Ukraine by March. That promise was not fulfilled. One reason for this is that the German government was too slow to issue underwriting guarantees to manufacturers, said Lange, an expert on Ukraine and Russia who also works at the Munich Security Council.
“Now, two years later, they’re doing it,” Lange said. But Ukraine is not the only country in dire need of these supplies. The same goes for the depleted ammunition stores of NATO countries.
Investment in drones, ammunition and combat vehicles
Lange said that even in the worst-case scenario, NATO has only five years to improve its weapons to ensure it can deter a potential Russian attack on NATO territory. An analysis by Christian Melling, director of the Center for Security and Defense at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), made this point at the end of 2023 and attracted a lot of attention.
In a more recent analysis, Gustav Gressel of the Berlin-based think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said, “Western and European countries in particular are seeking financial regulation to fundamentally stimulate drone production. There is a need to thoroughly review the industry and create economies of scale.” , ammunition, armored fighting vehicles, etc.
Gresel said the strategy of supplying Ukraine with familiar Soviet-made weapons mainly from reserve stocks in Eastern European countries is coming to an end, as there is nothing left. He warns of the need for a massive ramp-up of weapons production for both Ukraine and NATO countries in Europe.
Tactical withdrawal from liberated territory?
In the second winter of the Ukraine war, military leaders and analysts are focused above all on Ukraine’s inferiority in the artillery battle with Russia. Russia appears to be able to fill the apparent gap with supplies from North Korea, while Ukraine is being forced to ration ammunition.
In a recent podcast for the series “War on the Rocks,” the analyst said: michael coffman According to the US Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), Russia has “established a 5-to-1 fire superiority on the front lines,” meaning five Russian missiles are fired for every Ukrainian shell. . A more pessimistic analysis estimates this ratio to be 10:1.
Kovman believes that Ukrainian forces may have to withdraw from the disputed town of Avdiivka on the Eastern Front. Furthermore, there is also the risk of a large-scale Russian attack on the city of Kupiansk in the north.
DGAP’s Christian Melling said in a recent radio interview that delays in the supply of ammunition and military equipment to Ukraine over the past two years have made it increasingly clear that Ukraine will have to withdraw from the territory it has liberated. He said that it has become.
But ahead of next week’s summit of Western military experts at the Munich Security Conference, Nico Lange believes he is seeing the beginnings of a change in strategy. He said this was prompted by the analysis of the military situation in Ukraine and by Western military officials who are also looking at the military requirements of their own armed forces.
German Major General Christian Freuding, in an interview with the newspaper group Redstionnetswerk Deutschland, emphasized the importance of “the long-term and systematic capacity building of the Ukrainian military that we are currently working on.”
Indeed, the Ukrainian military has also reported success in airstrikes targeting Russian radar sites, bases, and supply routes in Crimea and southern Ukraine, despite Russia’s superiority.
In early February, General of Ukraine Valery Zarzhiny wrote in a CNN analysis: “Most importantly, unmanned systems such as drones and other advanced weapons offer the best way” to avoid Ukraine getting drawn into a positional war in which we do not have an advantage. ” For the more than 50 countries supporting Ukraine, led by the United States, this means supplying them with increasingly high-tech weapons.
The United States answered the call and supplied Zarzini forces with so-called GLSDB precision bombs starting in early February. Built by Boeing Saab, these missiles have a range of 150 kilometers (about 90 miles) and bring Ukraine within range of the coastal region between Crimea, a major supply route for the Russian military, and the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Lange confirmed this to DW, citing security sources. Kiev has been waiting for these precision weapons for more than a year.
Lange says some things are moving in Ukraine’s direction, but it remains to be seen whether the changes pushed by Western and Ukrainian military strategists will be adopted by European politicians. . Because they are the ones who will ultimately have to secure the financial backing to supply Ukraine with weapons and expand European arms production for years to come.
Several senior NATO military officials recently warned that the alliance must prepare for conflict with Russia within days.
Dutch Admiral: “We must recognize that peace is not a given.” rob bauerwarned the chairman of the NATO Military Committee at a press conference after a two-day meeting at the end of January.
Against the backdrop of Russia’s large-scale offensive against Ukraine, which began two years ago this month, the Oslo daily Dagbladet reported that the Norwegian military commander, General Eirik Kristoffersen, said there was now “a window of maybe two or three.” It was reported that he said. This will be the year we have to invest more in secure defense. ”Meanwhile, Michael Biden, commander in chief of the armed forces of neighboring Sweden, also called on his compatriots and politicians to “move from understanding to action.”
Military leaders’ plea to politicians
Experts see this as a plea from military leaders to European politicians for a change in strategy in the conflict with Russia. German security expert Nico Lange said in an interview with DW that hopes for an early end to the Ukraine war are not being realized, supported by Western arms supplies on the one hand and sanctions against Russia’s war economy on the other. I commented that no.
Among other things, military leaders and analysts alike are concerned about shortages of ammunition and new military equipment, as well as Europe’s current weapons production capacity.
In this respect, NATO’s military deterrence potential is closely tied to supplies to Ukraine. Last year, the EU promised to deliver 1 million shells to Ukraine by March. That promise was not fulfilled. One reason for this is that the German government was too slow to issue underwriting guarantees to manufacturers, said Lange, an expert on Ukraine and Russia who also works at the Munich Security Council.
“Now, two years later, they’re doing it,” Lange said. But Ukraine is not the only country in dire need of these supplies. The same goes for the depleted ammunition stores of NATO countries.
Investment in drones, ammunition and combat vehicles
Lange said that even in the worst-case scenario, NATO has only five years to improve its weapons to ensure it can deter a potential Russian attack on NATO territory. An analysis by Christian Melling, director of the Center for Security and Defense at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), made this point at the end of 2023 and attracted a lot of attention.
In a more recent analysis, Gustav Gressel of the Berlin-based think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said, “Western and European countries in particular are seeking financial regulation to fundamentally stimulate drone production. There is a need to thoroughly review the industry and create economies of scale.” , ammunition, armored fighting vehicles, etc.
Gresel said the strategy of supplying Ukraine with familiar Soviet-made weapons mainly from reserve stocks in Eastern European countries is coming to an end, as there is nothing left. He warns of the need for a massive ramp-up of weapons production for both Ukraine and NATO countries in Europe.
Tactical withdrawal from liberated territory?
In the second winter of the Ukraine war, military leaders and analysts are focused above all on Ukraine’s inferiority in the artillery battle with Russia. Russia appears to be able to fill the apparent gap with supplies from North Korea, while Ukraine is being forced to ration ammunition.
In a recent podcast for the series “War on the Rocks,” the analyst said: michael coffman According to the US Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), Russia has “established a 5-to-1 fire superiority on the front lines,” meaning five Russian missiles are fired for every Ukrainian shell. . A more pessimistic analysis estimates this ratio to be 10:1.
Kovman believes that Ukrainian forces may have to withdraw from the disputed town of Avdiivka on the Eastern Front. Furthermore, there is also the risk of a large-scale Russian attack on the city of Kupiansk in the north.
DGAP’s Christian Melling said in a recent radio interview that delays in the supply of ammunition and military equipment to Ukraine over the past two years have made it increasingly clear that Ukraine will have to withdraw from the territory it has liberated. He said that it has become.
But ahead of next week’s summit of Western military experts at the Munich Security Conference, Nico Lange believes he is seeing the beginnings of a change in strategy. He said this was prompted by the analysis of the military situation in Ukraine and by Western military officials who are also looking at the military requirements of their own armed forces.
German Major General Christian Freuding, in an interview with the newspaper group Redstionnetswerk Deutschland, emphasized the importance of “the long-term and systematic capacity building of the Ukrainian military that we are currently working on.”
Indeed, the Ukrainian military has also reported success in airstrikes targeting Russian radar sites, bases, and supply routes in Crimea and southern Ukraine, despite Russia’s superiority.
In early February, General of Ukraine Valery Zarzhiny wrote in a CNN analysis: “Most importantly, unmanned systems such as drones and other advanced weapons offer the best way” to avoid Ukraine getting drawn into a positional war in which we do not have an advantage. ” For the more than 50 countries supporting Ukraine, led by the United States, this means supplying them with increasingly high-tech weapons.
The United States answered the call and supplied Zarzini forces with so-called GLSDB precision bombs starting in early February. Built by Boeing Saab, these missiles have a range of 150 kilometers (about 90 miles) and bring Ukraine within range of the coastal region between Crimea, a major supply route for the Russian military, and the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Lange confirmed this to DW, citing security sources. Kiev has been waiting for these precision weapons for more than a year.
Lange says some things are moving in Ukraine’s direction, but it remains to be seen whether the changes pushed by Western and Ukrainian military strategists will be adopted by European politicians. . Because they are the ones who will ultimately have to secure the financial backing to supply Ukraine with weapons and expand European arms production for years to come.
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