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European leaders have ratcheted up pressure on Hungary in recent weeks, persuading Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to stop blocking crucial aid to Ukraine’s war effort. The deal was revealed this Thursday at a meeting of the European Council in Brussels, where European Union (EU) heads of government agreed to an aid package in the form of a four-year, 50 billion euro lifeline to Ukraine. Agreed.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine descends into a near hopeless war of attrition in recent months, support for Kiev from the United States and Europe appears increasingly fragile. In Washington, funding for Ukraine has become mired in Republican efforts to extract significant concessions from Congressional Democrats and the Biden administration on immigration. Ukraine has also become a bargaining chip in EU discussions. The Orbán government, which faces a series of financial sanctions from Brussels for attacks on civil society and the judiciary, is desperate for influence over EU planners in its efforts to unwind frozen EU funds destined for Hungary. There is. Recent stimulus package.
The European Council last met to discuss funding for Ukraine in December, when Hungary blocked a deal. This follows the agency’s move to give Budapest 10 billion euros in free money, nominally because Prime Minister Orbán has moved forward with EU demands for liberal political reforms, EU officials claim. Although this was done, it was not difficult for geopolitical priorities to trump concerns about the rule of law. However, this olive branch from the European Commission only served to lift Hungary’s veto during the vote on Ukraine’s EU membership candidacy. Prime Minister Orban walked out during the final count, effectively abstaining from a vote that would have been vetoed by a single member state.
Ahead of Thursday’s meeting, EU officials had threatened drastic retaliation against Hungary if it persisted in blocking new European aid measures that would require unanimous approval.by financial times, Committee officials were planning to cause a collapse of the Hungarian currency, the forint. Prime Minister Orbán initially rejected what he called “blackmail” from Brussels, but the threat appears to have worked. Hungary’s prime minister backed away from a less ambitious call to hold an annual vote on Ukraine’s funding package. The final agreement announced on Thursday reduced this to annual discussions, with the possibility of a substantive review after two years.
The fact that the EU has secured funding for Ukraine should be a source of comfort. There is much to be said about the deep causes that made Russia’s full-scale invasion possible, but the Ukraine war (since 2014 and especially since February 2022, which has attracted the full attention of Europe and the United States) has been categorically It is defensive and prevents a war in Ukraine. Redeployment of borders by Russian tanks. The aid already provided has helped prevent Ukraine from collapsing in the face of foreign aggression. Securing a four-year funding package will protect its support from political fluctuations in the EU from crisis to crisis.
But another round of strengthening Ukraine’s defenses will not make up for the apparent lack of serious strategic discussion about the course of this conflict and what to expect from European investment in it. Instead, there was a lot of chest-pounding and finger-wagging, both from Orbán, who is seen as the EU’s president, Vladimir Putin, and, indeed, from those seduced by so-called “Ukraine fatigue.”
Supporters of Ukraine have long argued in public that Kiev is the only place to decide the terms and content of negotiations with Russia, if they are ultimately held. Although EU countries consider Ukraine’s self-defense to be in their national interest, they are by no means republican in this conflict. But expanding substantive support should at least discuss what can and should be expected from engagement in the conflict. But after two years of war between the states, talk about the contours of a possible reconciliation is nowhere to be found in the mainstream press or political debate.
“We call on Ukraine’s friends and partners to recommit sustainable long-term support to Ukraine as a shared European responsibility,” five EU heads of government, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said on the eve of the EU Council meeting. stated in an open letter. Meeting in Brussels. “We need to act now because Russia won’t wait for anyone. If Ukraine loses, the long-term consequences and costs for all of us will be even greater.”
There is no doubt that the aid package secured on Thursday will be critical to supporting Ukraine’s recovery. do not have Lose this conflict. European and perhaps American aid will help deter further Russian advances, but has done little to fundamentally change the scale of the conflict. Today, it is increasingly unclear what a victory for Ukraine will look like. Valery Zarzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said: economist In November, the war reached a “stalemate”. It is rumored that Zarushny may be relieved of his command due to deteriorating relations with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Last winter, when I spoke to veteran French international relations expert Bertrand Bady, he said that the first year of the war and the failure of Russia’s first Blitzkrieg had been used to achieve specific political goals. He argued that this demonstrated the limits of military power. A year later, these observations offer useful lessons about the disappointment of Ukraine’s own counterattack and a warning for those expecting maximalist outcomes from current and future aid packages. The conflict has been largely at a standstill since Ukraine’s last major success in late 2022, when demoralized Russian troops withdrew from Khalikhiv in the northeast or Kherson in the southwest. For months, reports of Ukrainian attacks, or the occasional Russian counterattack, have been measured in hundreds of meters of land captured by either side in brutal trench warfare.
The EU’s strategic drift is particularly worrying given that it could become further isolated as early as November this year. Of course, planners in Brussels believe that institutional inertia in the Pentagon and State Department is due to President Trump’s desire to withdraw U.S. aid to Ukraine (and resolve the conflict in one day, as the former president said). may be expected to prevent this. However, these calculations are based on a lot of wishful thinking. Donald Trump’s return to power is highly likely, raising serious doubts about continued U.S. aid to Ukraine. And Europe is dangerously short on partners elsewhere.
In the end, the wavering of US attention and involvement is just part of the regionalization of the Russia-Ukraine war, which is perhaps the biggest advantage President Vladimir Putin has gained after February 2022. In this respect, European countries also have a responsibility. Beyond blocking further Russian advances, an actual settlement favorable to Ukraine will only be achieved through intense diplomatic pressure from the world beyond Washington and Western European capitals. These are the very actors from whom Europe has become even more isolated since Israel began its actions. A full-scale invasion of Gaza.
There are actually two funding dramas this week that together perfectly sum up Europe’s incoherence. Countries seeking to be defenders of international law, such as France, Germany and the European Union, have suspended aid to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) following allegations before reaching an agreement with Hungary to provide funding to Ukraine. Stopped and stopped aid. From Israel, it was announced that a small number of workers took part in the Hamas-led attack on October 7th.
Europe’s lawsuit against Ukraine is against Russia’s grossly illegal land grab and is being carried out in the name of international law. But these claims fall on deaf ears as people around the world consider Israel’s hollow and understated criticism of Israel’s war crimes. The International Court of Justice hearing on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was welcomed by Western leaders. South Africa’s own accusations of genocide against Israel have been met with cautious and curt responses from European capitals. In a global situation where it is no longer possible to force desired outcomes, Europeans can no longer tolerate such contradictions.
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