Biden’s balancing act with Iran is aimed at deterrence, not broader war

CNN
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President Joe Biden’s decision to strike 85 locations in Iraq and Syria on Friday, after the deaths of three U.S. soldiers over the weekend, amounted to a compromise and meant there was no way to get into Iran. Although it would fall short of a direct attack and would almost certainly spark a widespread war, it would still be more than any previous action the United States has taken against a group it accuses of destabilizing the region. It is extensive.

There is little belief within the U.S. government that Biden’s actions will completely shut down a group of Iranian proxies that have been involved in escalating attacks on U.S. military bases and commercial shipping routes in the Red Sea. A long-term solution remains elusive as Mr. Biden enters a re-election year and pursues far-reaching diplomatic breakthroughs he hopes can change the broader region.

Whether the 125 precision-guided missiles fired over 30 minutes on Friday night will be effective in preventing further attacks on Americans is a question officials are not yet ready to answer.

But by removing intelligence centers, weapons facilities, command-and-control operations, and bunkers used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force and other affiliated militias, the United States reduced the militants’ capabilities and the offensive was won. There is also the hope that it will be able to send this message. Don’t go without answers.

“I think this is a really powerful deterrent,” said Sen. Tammy Duckworth, an Illinois Democrat and Iraq War veteran. “We’re saying: Listen, we don’t want to go to war. But give us a little taste of what we can do. Go ahead. The target is 85. And that’s because we I think it’s part of the balancing act that we have to work on right now.”

U.S. retaliation is not over, and officials have not ruled out less visible factors, such as cyberattacks, that could undermine the capabilities of Iran and its proxies. Ahead of the counteroffensive, the White House made clear that a multi-phase response was expected, the trajectory and duration of which would likely be determined by conditions on the ground.

How the next few days unfold will not only affect the region but also the mourning of the three Americans killed in Jordan in the hours before American B-1 bombers began attacking their targets. It will also have far-reaching implications for the president himself, who spent the time comforting his family.

The first U.S. strikes in Iraq and Syria began just about an hour after Biden departed from Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. Officials said that while the timing was coincidental, it nevertheless symbolized the gravity of his decision.

“Our response began today. It will continue at a time and place of our choosing,” Biden said in a written statement. “The United States does not want conflict in the Middle East or any other place in the world. But to all those who seek to harm us, please know this. If you add , we will comply.”

Biden was presented with a range of options for retaliation on Sunday, shortly after U.S. officials in Washington received information about an attack on Tower 22 in Jordan last weekend that ultimately killed three U.S. service members. It has been approved, sources told CNN.

It was in a Situation Room meeting with senior national security advisers the next morning that Biden gave the green light for the first strikes in Iraq and Syria, which took place on Friday.

It was also at this meeting that the president was informed of the assessment that extremist groups backed by the Revolutionary Guards were responsible for Sunday’s drone attack, officials said.

As Biden chooses how to respond to the deaths of three Americans, he faces critical choices about how to retaliate and send a message to Iran while avoiding becoming embroiled in a broader regional war. faced.

Biden and his team evaluated a series of options, each with some degree of risk. If the attack is too strong, what was a relatively minor firefight between U.S. and Iranian proxies could escalate into something more serious. If the strikes fall short, the message of impunity could be interpreted by the groups behind the deadly drone attacks and by Americans at home.

Adding to the complexity are the ongoing difficult negotiations to secure the release of hostages held in Gaza and impose a long-term cessation of fighting in Gaza, but officials said Biden He is reluctant to disrupt negotiations with potentially escalatory actions, he said.

“This is both a science and an art,” said former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who was involved in similar Situation Room discussions during President Donald Trump’s administration. In weighing options for the president, officials weighed the complexity of the attack, the estimated cost of the attack, the number of Iranians and militiamen it might kill, and the retaliation it might provoke. A comparative study was conducted.

“That’s the discussion going on in the room: What are the implications? What do we expect from the Iranians?” Esper said. “It will be important to see what happens when the sun rises tomorrow morning in Iraq and Syria.”

Biden and his advisers agreed that the U.S. response to American deaths must be commensurately different in scale from the tit-for-tat response that has been waged in the region since October 7. Ta.

They had no shortage of options. Plans have long been in the works to go after targets associated with a range of Iranian-backed groups that are fueling instability in the region. It didn’t take long to identify a tailored approach. Biden told reporters on Tuesday that he had decided how to respond to drone attacks, just two days after vowing in South Carolina that “we will respond.”

Officials later said that bad weather in the region played the biggest role in determining the timing of the strike. Clear skies on Friday reduced the risk of hitting unintended targets and resulted in no civilian casualties.

The question that can only be answered in the coming days and weeks is whether this response will change the situation in Iran. The United States has accused the United States of funding and financing extremist groups behind attacks that killed three Americans.

U.S. officials were already sensing signs that Iranian leaders were nervous about the actions of some of their proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, according to people familiar with the U.S. intelligence community. That’s what it means. And just as the US government claims it is not seeking a widespread conflict, there are clear signs that Iran does not want war with the US.

However, it is still not easy to resolve the militia problem. There is little evidence that U.S. countermilitary actions over the past few months, which the U.S. describes as deterrence efforts, have actually deterred anything. Biden made a similar admission last month, saying the U.S. offensive against the Houthi rebels in Yemen has not stopped attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes.

Republican lawmakers in Washington have called for direct attacks on Iranian positions inside the country, but that option appeared unlikely from the start as the White House sought to avoid getting drawn into a full-scale war. .

And since Mr. Biden’s early efforts to revive the Obama-era nuclear deal stalled, there have been few outward signs that Washington will resume diplomatic relations with Tehran. “We have lost contact with Iran since the attack in Jordan that killed three soldiers,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday night.

As a result, the path the president must take has become narrow enough to disappear.

“It’s a very fine line. They’re threading the needle here. And some of that is told by history,” said former intelligence official and top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani of Iran’s decision to attack. said Beth Sanner, who served as President Trump’s intelligence briefer during the tense period surrounding the United States.

“This is something every administration does,” Sanner said. “You’re trying to figure out where that line is. … There’s no point. You’re going to have to fumble around it.”

MJ Lee contributed to this report.