Climate action and job creation are top priorities for Canadians post-pandemic

Since March 2020, Canada’s federal government has provided massive pandemic relief and economic stimulus, and the Bank of Canada has kept interest rates near zero and made large purchases of government bonds.

While these unusual measures have their critics, few would dispute the fact that they are helping to sustain the economy and protect Canadians’ incomes.

So? Should we look to newly acquired debt and focus on restoring corporate confidence, or should we “build back better” by investing in social equity and climate change challenges?

As competing voices push for different priorities, we asked a random sample of Canadians two questions. What should Canada’s broader economic priorities be going forward, and what should the next federal budget focus on?

We conducted a national survey in January 2021 with 563 respondents across all 10 states. The survey had a plus or minus margin of error of 4.13 percentage points, 19 out of 20 times. The study’s initial findings are further explored in a policy brief published by the University of Saskatchewan’s Johnson Shoyama School of Public Policy.

Job creation is a top priority

Creating jobs and controlling inflation are traditional goals of economic policy, and we expected respondents to perceive them as legitimate policy priorities. But what about debt? To assess respondents’ sense of the relative importance of different goals, we asked them to rank five economic policy priorities from most important to least important.

Around 50 per cent of respondents believe ‘job creation’ should be their first or second economic priority as we emerge from the pandemic. More than 40%, although small, believe that controlling inflation (“controlling increases in the cost of goods and services”) should be the first or second priority. Very few people, less than 10%, think creating jobs and controlling inflation are the “least important” priorities.

Our respondents are sensitive to income issues. 20% think that protecting people’s incomes should be the top priority going forward, but an even larger proportion support reducing income inequality. In fact, almost 30% of respondents named reducing income inequality as their most important policy priority.

These preferences indicate a willingness to support active measures to shape income distribution. If that means taking on more public debt, so be it. The traditional fiscal goal of “reducing government debt levels” was supported by less than 15% of respondents, and almost 50% selected it as the least important of the five proposed priorities.

In other words, reducing income inequality and creating jobs ranked among the top two most important economic policy priorities, regardless of age, gender, region of residence, or household income. The only exception to this homogeneous response is the importance of ‘job creation’. Older adults aged 65 and over, men, and residents of Atlantic Canada all cite job creation as a more important policy priority than reducing income inequality.

budget priorities

While economic priorities are very general, budget priorities reveal the government’s specific investment preferences. To assess how ordinary Canadians approach their budget priorities, we presented respondents with a number of possible priority areas and identified the three areas that they believed most deserved support and the three areas that they believed most deserved support. We asked them to identify three areas where they don’t deserve it.

It’s no surprise to learn that Canadians believe public health efforts deserve top priority. But perhaps the clearest message for our post-pandemic future lies in our second most important priority: climate change and the green economy.

This preference is shared by respondents from a variety of demographic and geographic groups. Given the signals contained in the federal government’s Fall 2020 Economic Statement, climate action is likely to be one area where public priorities and political messages converge.

Supporting Canada’s strong supply chain, technology and innovation, the graph above highlights the importance of a positive environment for business investment, which is a key concern of Canadian business-oriented think tanks for respondents. It also suggests that you are aware of.

What is even more worrying from a long-term investment perspective is the relatively low priority given to education, whether it is vocational training, post-secondary education or early childhood. The following graph shows that more than 20% of respondents listed early childhood education among their least important priority areas.

And when it comes to the lowest priorities, the least deserving of support, oil and gas pipelines lead by a wide margin. Respondents living in central Canada (Ontario and Quebec) are slightly more likely to rate pipelines as least valuable, but regional differences are not large. If this choice is the flip side of a green economy orientation, the message is very clear. Canadians are moving towards a post-fossil fuel economy.

Some budget priorities are more vague. Universal basic income is a good example of a policy that a majority of respondents support, but an almost equal majority reject. Finding a compromise will not be easy.

priorities may change

Our findings represent a snapshot in time. I looked at priorities, and priorities change.

As Canada emerges from the pandemic, creating jobs and achieving full employment is a top priority. Traditional concerns about balanced budgets and falling debt levels have been put on the back burner.

If inflation rises and debt interest payments begin to threaten the programs Canadians take for granted, we can expect priorities to shift. Supporting the green economy and reducing income inequality could become more permanent priorities. The same goes for antipathy toward oil and gas pipelines.

But there is no consensus, and the government will face some resistance in almost all its efforts.