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It was one of the most glorious 12 hours for right-wing American politics in recent memory.
But how good was it for them? And how bad was it for the left?
Taken together, Biden’s debate performance immediately raised significant concern among the left about his suitability as a successor and even sparked a movement to have a candidate run to replace Biden at the Democratic National Convention in August.Then, on Friday morning, the Supreme Court 1) dealt a major setback to the government’s prosecution of Donald Trump’s associates over the January 6th riot, and 2) gave conservatives a long-awaited victory, overturning a key legal precedent that had stood for 40 years. Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council case.
The last event may actually be the most significant and long-lasting: The Supreme Court overturned a 1984 precedent that said courts should largely defer to federal agency officials in interpreting the law. It may sound technical and arcane, but the decision could have big implications. It could severely impede the government’s ability to combat climate change and regulate big business, and reduce the role of government and experts in American life.
The impact of the January 6 ruling is more subtle, but still important both practically and politically: Essentially, the court ruled that the government made broad use of federal law (obstructing or obstructing official proceedings) in prosecuting the January 6 defendants. The same law has been applied against hundreds of other January 6 defendants, including Trump himself.
The Justice Department quickly tried to downplay the sentence, pointing out that 82% of the more than 1,400 defendants indicted on January 6 had never been charged with or convicted of that particular crime. They also noted that only 2% of defendants currently serving time were convicted of that crime and had not been convicted of another felony. That means the sentence won’t get many prisoners released.
The impact of this case on Trump personally may be limited because he has been charged with other crimes related to the January 6 attacks, but it remains a major headache with far-reaching ramifications.
But perhaps just as importantly, the incident has given Trump rare actual political ammunition in his years-long effort to downplay Jan. 6 and accuse the government of going too far in prosecuting him and his supporters.
Trump’s claims about “weaponizing” the justice system and his proposal to pardon those accused of the January 6 attacks have not been well received outside his supporters. But it’s a decision he can use in these cases, the former based mainly on conspiracy theories and misleading claims. The Supreme Court has effectively said that the government overreached in at least one case, and notably, the Supreme Court majority in that case included liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (though Justice Jackson suggested that the ruling should not allow too many of the January 6 attacks to escape prosecution).
That doesn’t mean Trump can completely turn things around or do anything close to that — these are complex issues that won’t have a big impact right away — but it certainly gives Trump new footholds he hasn’t had before.
The impact of Thursday night’s debate will become clearer as polls measuring how much damage Biden has done to himself progress.
So far, we have limited data. In two polls, roughly twice as many people said Trump won the debate as those who said Biden won. This includes a CNN poll, which showed the opposite in the 2020 debates: Biden outperformed Trump. The CNN poll also showed a 6-point drop in favorable views of Biden (to just 31%) among debate viewers, and a 3-point increase in favorable views of Trump (to 43%).
It remains to be seen, but it’s an ominous sign for Democrats already panicking about their chances of winning the 2024 election. And the performance, which reminds voters already widespread of Biden’s age and mental acuity, was a sort of hour-and-a-half pitch to Republicans on perhaps Biden’s biggest weakness.
If Biden’s approval ratings really worsen, there will likely be more serious discussions about changing course on him — but those discussions themselves would be problematic for the party.
That means the damage could continue.
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