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Many in Europe fear that a new, dangerous world awaits if Donald Trump wins in November. They think the United States could turn its back on Europe and the continent’s security architecture could collapse. As one European politician told me, “We in the West live in a stable, peaceful, open world and take that for granted. But we are now facing a whole range of challenges, external and internal, that could all fall apart.”
Yes, it can. The external challenges alone are enormous. We see Russia, China, Iran, and now North Korea forming an axis that challenges both Western power and Western values.
Still, the resurgence of great power competition has interesting implications. Western values and mores are often treated as ideals to be criticized for their shortcomings and hypocrisy. But increasingly, Western values and mores must be judged against alternatives. If we don’t like a world dominated by Western power and ideas, would we prefer Russian or Chinese ones?
A new poll commissioned by Ipsos and King’s College London (conducted to coincide with this year’s Fulbright Lectures at Oxford) reveals a shift in the global mood. The survey of nearly 24,000 people in 31 countries found that people are thinking more seriously and critically about the growing power and influence of authoritarian powers. People believe three countries – Russia, China and Iran – are misusing their influence, showing worsening views of all three since the survey was last conducted in 2019. The number of respondents who think Russia is misusing its influence has increased by 22 percentage points over the past five years, China by 10 percentage points and Iran by 5 percentage points. (The other country on that four-nation list is Israel, and this is a dire situation that should be a wake-up call for Israelis.)
The survey closely parallels another global survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in 2023, which asked people in 24 countries whether they viewed China or the U.S. A median of 59% of those surveyed had a favorable view of the U.S., compared with just 28% of China.
The rise of China and the resurgence of Russia have destabilized the international situation. But they have also reminded the world of the choice between two values: Western liberal values and authoritarian illiberal values. You only need to look at the two conflicts playing out in Europe and Asia over Ukraine and Taiwan to see the difference clearly. In both cases, the West is trying to allow people (in Ukraine and Taiwan) to freely choose how they want to live. In contrast, Russia and China are trying to take away that freedom. It’s a clear difference, and the whole world can see it.
The Ipsos/KCL poll finds that people in most countries view U.S. influence on the world stage more favorably than in 2019, with one exception within the United States. It is deeply worrying that Americans have lost confidence in their country’s vitality, strength and virtue.
The facts are that America is, in many ways, stronger than it has been in years. But many Americans don’t feel that way. In talks about my book, many were troubled by the deep polarization and division in the country. Many wonder whether we can move beyond this and reach some kind of compromise, some kind of resolution that will move the country forward.
Again, I have not lost hope. We are in the midst of change. In the United States, these issues are constantly covered and highlighted. We spill our dirty secrets in public. Discussions of our failures shake our political system. We must address these issues. But it is certainly better than suppressing them, forcing people into submission, and presenting a facade of unity like North Korea to the world. And these surveys show that people all over the world can tell what is real and what is fake. When forced to choose, most people prefer the West and its values, with all their good and bad.
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