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The judgment spread across the political class. Biden’s chances of winning the nomination plummeted within hours on PredictIt.org, a site for betting on political events. Biden’s chances of becoming the party’s nominee fell 26 cents to 60 cents. That means that despite his landslide primary victories, unopposed party opponents, and control of the party machinery, bettors essentially thought Biden had only a 60% chance of winning the nomination.
No incumbent president has ever dropped out of a race so late in the campaign, and there was little agreement on what would happen if he did. On Thursday night, Democrats were imagining a scenario in which party elders such as Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina would intervene for Mr. Biden.
There was no indication that any of them would agree to do so.Other Democrats said they worried it was too late, noting that Biden is a proud and stubborn man who has long maintained he is the best person to beat Trump and would likely not listen to anyone except his wife, Jill Biden, who has strongly supported running again.Democrats have long worried about not having a clear successor, and it’s unclear whether Harris, Newsom or other party leaders will be able to meet the challenge.
Incumbent presidents often stumble in the first debate of a general election season, either out of inexperience or overconfidence, but often make up for it with a stronger performance afterward. Biden’s struggles were particularly reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s first debate in 1984, when he looked old and out of sorts. In the next debate, he redeemed himself with a well-timed joke about not taking advantage of his opponent’s youth and inexperience.
The problem for Biden is that there are no other debates scheduled until Sept. 10, meaning no obvious opportunity to bounce back for months. And as a veteran Democratic strategist said, this isn’t a tactical retreat like Obama’s loss to Mitt Romney in 2012. “This is an existential threat,” the strategist said.
So rather than resetting the race in Biden’s favor, as some had expected, the president’s team ended the night recognizing that the challenge in the coming days and weeks will be to contain the damage and rally the party behind its embattled leader.
Zoran Kanno Youngs, Katie Rogers and Annie Krabby Contributed report.
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