EU leaders set to agree on top post despite Meloni’s dissatisfaction

European leaders are meeting in Brussels for a two-day summit to announce their choice for the EU’s top post, with current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set to be nominated for a second term.

The summit began with the signing of a security cooperation agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also thanked EU leaders for starting accession negotiations with Ukraine earlier this week.

The agenda also included security and defence, with leaders of Poland and the Baltic states asking the EU for funding to build a defence line along their border with Russia.

But the more sensitive issue of executive posts has been left for last and is likely to be debated at least until the evening.

Earlier this week it emerged that six EU leaders, drawn from one of the three parties with a majority in the European Parliament, had reached an agreement on a slate of candidates.

The six EU leaders who negotiated the name also represent the EPP, S&D and Renew.

They are Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Poland’s Donald Tusk of the European People’s Party (EPP), Spain’s Pedro Sanchez and Germany’s Olaf Scholz of the Socialist Party, and France’s Emmanuel Macron and the Netherlands’ Mark Rutte of the Renew party.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who leads the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party, was not included in the meeting, despite the ECR becoming the third largest party in the European Parliament, overtaking Renew, following European elections earlier this month.

Speaking in Italy’s parliament on Wednesday, Meloni angrily said European voters were asking the EU to take “a different path than the one we have been on so far.”

Without naming names, she criticised “those who claim that the public is not mature enough to make certain decisions”. [who believe] “Oligarchy is essentially the only acceptable form of democracy.”

Earlier this week, Hungary’s Viktor Orban also voiced his dissatisfaction with other EU leaders.

Writing in X, Orbán said the agreement between the European People’s Party, the Social Democrats and the Liberals “goes against everything the EU is based on.”

“It would sow the seeds of division, not inclusion,” Orban said, adding that the EU leader should represent “all member states, not just the left or liberals”.

Meloni’s supporters told reporters in Brussels on Thursday morning that he had not yet decided whether to approve the new leadership.

But even with Orban’s support, Meloni does not have the power to veto nominees for key posts, which would require the backing of a majority of EU leaders.

But Meloni has gained a prominent position on the European right and von der Leyen is unlikely to want to antagonise him at the start of her second term.

Ahead of the summit, members of von der Leyen’s PPE group sounded a conciliatory tone, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk telling reporters: “There is no Europe without Italy and there can be no decision without Prime Minister Meloni. That’s clear.”

It is also understood that in exchange for its approval at today’s summit, Italy will be offered a senior position on the next commission – each EU member state has one, with areas such as economy and competition being the most coveted.

In a letter to EU leaders on the eve of the Brussels summit, von der Leyen also promised to step up efforts to tackle irregular immigration, one of Meloni’s main concerns.

If von der Leyen is formally nominated by EU leaders as their candidate for European Commission president, she will need to be approved by a majority of European Parliament members when parliament convenes in mid-July.

Von der Leyen has the backing of 190 members of the European People’s Party (EPP) group but will need support from other political groups to secure a majority of 361 votes.

S&D and Renew have said they will support von der Leyen, and if all MEPs from both parties support her, she would have the majority she needs.

But votes for the European Commission president are secret, meaning some MEPs may not toe the party line.

This means von der Leyen may need votes from the European Parliament, making it even more urgent to secure Meloni’s support.