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Those campaigning to legalize recreational marijuana and protect abortion rights in Florida have a lot of work to do.
Floridians will have the option to vote on both constitutional amendments this November. However, for the proposal to become the law of the land, it needs to receive at least 60% of the votes.
An exclusive USA TODAY/Ipsos poll shows that even if a vote were taken now, it would be by no means certain that it would pass.
In a survey of more than 1,000 Florida adults, half said they would vote in favor of the abortion ballot measure. That’s 10 points less than the required threshold, but 16% of people said they weren’t registered to vote or didn’t know where they stood. A third said he opposed the amendment.
Meanwhile, 49% of those surveyed said they would vote in favor of the marijuana amendment, 14% were unsure or unregistered, and 36% opposed (1% omitted the question on both amendments). .
And advocates of the amendment will need to not only persuade voters, but also inform them in the coming months. Only half of Floridians told pollsters they were very or somewhat knowledgeable about the abortion bill, and 54% said the same about the marijuana bill.
The poll had a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points and was conducted April 5-7 among 369 Republicans, 264 Democrats, and 316 independents.
Breakdown of abortion measures
The abortion amendment (Amendment 4) is likely to garner the most attention in Florida, especially since the Florida Supreme Court upheld a six-week abortion ban effective May 1.
If Amendment 4 is approved by Florida voters, abortions in the state will be prohibited until fetal viability, or how quickly a fetus can survive outside its mother’s womb (generally thought to be 24 weeks). access will be guaranteed. It would also allow abortions if necessary to protect the patient’s health, at the discretion of the health care provider.
The group leading the movement for the amendment, Floridians for Freedom, has raised nearly $20 million from a coalition of abortion rights groups. The group was scheduled to officially launch its “Yes On 4” campaign in Orlando on Saturday.
Florida Republican lawmakers, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, strongly oppose the amendment. That’s why many prominent anti-abortion groups are trying to block the measure this fall.
Opponents say the language is too vague and would lead to an unregulated abortion industry, but supporters of the amendment dismiss these arguments as “scare tactics.”
A majority of Democrats polled (74%) expressed support for the abortion plan, 17% opposed it, and 9% were unsure or not registered to vote.
Independents were even more divided, with 52% saying they were in favor of the bill, but only 28% voting against it. The fifth was unknown or not registered.
In Florida, however, 58% of Republicans, who outnumber Democrats by nearly 1 million voters, oppose such measures, while only 34% support them, and 8% are unsure or unregistered. was.
There are 5,243,299 Republicans, 4,351,265 Democrats and 3,533,149 independents in Florida, according to the latest numbers from the state Elections Department.
Learn more about marijuana
The Marijuana Measures (Third Amendment) allows people over the age of 21 to possess up to 3 ounces of marijuana and 5 grams of marijuana concentrate.
The group leading the movement for the amendment, Smart & Safe Florida, has raised nearly $55 million so far. Much of that has already gone into collecting enough signatures to pass the bill, most of which come from Trulieve, the state’s largest medical marijuana operator. Medical marijuana companies in other states are starting to make millions of dollars in profits as well.
Again, DeSantis and other top conservatives in the state oppose the bill. Mr. DeSantis said the document could create a mass marijuana stench and criticized it as being too broad and limiting how states can regulate the industry.
Smart & Safe Florida denies this, saying the Florida Constitution, proposed amendments, and Florida Supreme Court precedents make it clear that the state can enact recreational marijuana regulations, including restricting use in public places. He said there was.
But the group will need to convince more people, including Democrats, according to USA TODAY/Ipsos data.
A quarter of Democrats opposed the marijuana ballot measure, 64% supported it, and 10% were undecided or unregistered. Meanwhile, 38% of Republicans said they would vote yes, 58% opposed and 4% were undecided or unregistered.
Fifty-two percent of independents supported the move, 33% opposed it, and 15% were unregistered or unsure.
Remember: There are about seven months until Election Day, November 5th.
Douglas Soule can be reached at DSoule@gannett.com.
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