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Donald Trump has proven to be a master at turning legal lemons into political lemonade, finally going to trial on Monday in a Manhattan case stemming from hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels and others. He plans to do the same when he is put on the line.
Political observers say he is certain to use the trial as a platform to advance his now-familiar argument that he is the real victim of “deep state” Democrats and biased prosecutors.
“As we’ve seen in the past, he will try to turn the trial from prosecution to persecution,” said Basil Smickle, a Hunter College professor and Democratic strategist. “In his view, that could convince his supporters that they are being treated unfairly.”
Republican strategists say it’s no secret how President Trump plans to deal with the potential political pitfalls of the trial.
“He will destroy the justice system as he has done for years while declaring this.” [himself] A victim and a martyr,” Republican strategist Douglas Hay said.
For most politicians, facing felonies in court, let alone sordid allegations like extramarital sex, lying, and election-altering cover-ups, would be the kiss of death.
And President Trump is certainly fearful of the unexpected revelations that could come out in court and the potential repercussions of sitting in the defense seat for weeks. Otherwise, he would not have spent months on a legal Hail Mary campaign that has so far failed in an attempt to derail the trial.
But experts believe Trump could at least succeed in rousing Republican voters who have already chosen him as the Republican nominee to face President Biden in November.
Scott Jennings, a former aide to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), said the hush-money scandal is particularly suited to Trump as a way to further strengthen ties with his supporters.
That’s because this case takes place in Manhattan. Few MAGA supporters believe Trump will get a fair shake there, and it contains outrageous allegations that he calls “a left-wing fever dream.”
“They see all of this, especially the New York case, as a phony political attack disguised as a legitimate legal action,” Jennings said. “The anger and engagement within the base will intensify.”
One thing is certain: on Monday morning, Mr. Trump will enter a lower Manhattan courtroom and make history by becoming the first former U.S. president to face a criminal trial.
But for the average voter on either side of the political divide, the shock of seeing President Trump in the defense seat in court is surprisingly old.
He has already been indicted in four separate criminal cases involving 88 counts in two states and Washington, D.C., and was even photographed in Atlanta when he was arraigned on charges of election interference and racketeering. .
Trump was also found guilty of sexual assault and defamation of author E. Jean Carroll. He was similarly found liable in a civil fraud case against state Attorney General Letitia James and ordered to pay an eye-watering $450 million fine, plus interest.
In all of these cases, Mr. Trump is following a now-familiar blueprint. He violently attacks judges, prosecutors, and others involved in the case, and loudly tells his loyal supporters that he is being targeted for standing up for them.
The stakes could potentially be much higher in a criminal trial, as he could be jailed if convicted, and experts say they expect his criminal trial to be similar. ing.
He plans to use the gruesome trappings of the courts and criminal justice system as props to convey to his supporters the urgency of supporting and contributing financially to his presidential campaign.
It would be a huge problem for virtually any other candidate to be stuck in court for weeks while their opponent is free to hold rallies and fly around the country.
That’s not necessarily the case for President Trump. He uses the media to garner seemingly endless attention and is able to utilize his unique communication channels to get his message across wherever he is and whatever he is doing.
One of the biggest drawbacks for the candidate was that he had to divert millions of dollars in campaign funds to legal costs.
Smikle said Trump is trying to use the possibility of a prison sentence to garner support from a broader electorate.
“He’ll move on to the next thing.” [convince] Working-class white voters and even black men recognize that the system is rigged against him in the same way it is rigged against them,” Smickle said. he said.
But some analysts say the very nature of the criminal trial puts Trump on the defensive and makes him appear powerless. This could be a major liability for a candidate who has cultivated a tough-guy image, compared himself to Al Capone and falsely said he has been indicted more often than the notorious mobster. There is sex.
“Trump wants to talk about the issues he wants to talk about, like immigration and inflation,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist. “These are issues that independent voters care about, and they are the ones who will decide elections.”
New York prosecutors say Trump falsified potentially damaging business records during the 2016 election to conceal payments to Daniels, Playboy model Karen McDougal and a Trump Tower doorman. He was accused of concealing information. They argue that these crimes, which would normally be misdemeanors, are felonies because they were committed in aid of Trump’s other election-related crimes.
The lawsuit, filed by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, is the first indictment of President Trump, and perhaps unsurprisingly, it is the first to go to trial.
But legal analysts widely agree that the case is the least serious of the criminal cases.
After all, the case primarily concerns conduct that occurred before Trump took office in 2017. Unlike the Georgia case and special counsel Jack Smith’s federal election interference case, the Manhattan trial does not address the former president’s efforts to overturn the election results he lost. .
Additionally, the Manhattan case does not have a direct national security impact, as do the federal cases in which President Trump was accused of taking classified documents after he left the White House.
Many Republican strategists believe that, at least for the party, the view of the New York incident could benefit Mr. Trump.
The most convincing witnesses may be Mr. Daniels and Mr. Trump’s former fixer, Michael Cohen. He may be seen by the public as seeking revenge, publicity, or both.
Democrats counter that there is little doubt that Trump ordered the payments and hoped to silence Daniels before the 2016 election.
Cohen is already in prison on charges of facilitating hush money payments.
One thing analysts on both sides acknowledge is that they don’t know how the public will react to a conviction or prison sentence.
Could Trump interpret it as just a Democratic witch hunt?
Or the possibility of voting for a convicted felon turns away many Republicans who would normally sit back and vote for their party’s candidate no matter what. I wonder?
“I’m skeptical that anything will change people’s opinions of Donald Trump,” Conant said. “People were determined.”
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