As Iran attacks Israel, Biden faces escalation of Middle East crisis he hoped to avoid

CNN
—

For President Joe Biden, an attack on Israel originating from Iranian territory amounts to a scenario he has largely sought to avoid since the current Middle East conflict began.

This retaliation raises the risk of a broader regional conflict that could directly involve the United States as well as other countries.

And they have put Biden in the delicate position of once again pledging staunch support for Israel while trying to prevent another conflagration from exploding with U.S. involvement.

What happens next is unknown. Immediately after the attack on Iran, American officials acknowledged that the scope of the Iranian attack was initially unknown and that they were entering uncharted territory. One of the key question marks is how proxy forces could potentially join Iranian efforts to target Israel, adding a new layer of unpredictability. And as Israel’s response plan is still being developed, Biden administration officials are expected to continue advising their Israeli counterparts with containment in mind.

Biden is also operating in the dangerous politics of an election year, giving great weight to future decisions. The Israeli-Hamas war that broke out on October 7 has hurt Biden at home, with his rejection of calls for a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip hurting his support in key constituencies. .

One official said the ongoing nature of the attack was one of the reasons Biden rushed back to the White House from his Delaware beach house on Saturday afternoon, and to monitor the situation in real time. The room was well-equipped.

U.S. officials told CNN they believed Saturday’s Iranian attack on Israel was disproportionate to Israel’s attack on Damascus, which triggered the retaliation.

That view has become a key element in discussions taking place throughout the day at the White House about next steps, especially as Mr. Biden seeks to prevent a full-scale regional conflict from erupting.

There is also a recognition that what Israel does in response will depend on a full damage assessment, including potential casualties, so the Biden administration’s advice to Israel will depend on whether that situation will be a focus. He added that it depends on the

Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Saturday night, as did Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of Defense Job Gallant, and the two governments will remain in close contact in the coming hours and days.

Immediately after Israel’s attack on Syria, which killed Iran’s top commanders, U.S. officials monitored and determined that Iran was preparing to launch a major attack on Israel. While the United States was in close consultation with Israel to try to figure out exactly when and where Iran might retaliate, administration officials said Iran was trying to attack U.S. personnel or assets in Israel or in the region. The possibility has not been completely ruled out.

A senior government official said in the days leading up to Saturday’s attack on Iran that the most likely “worst-case scenario” was a direct attack by Iran on Israel, erupting into conflict between the states that could lead to He said there was a high possibility of a military conflict. It’s the beginning of a broader regional conflict that the United States has been trying to prevent since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

Despite current tensions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Gaza war, Mr. Biden and his top officials have spent the past week trying to stay out of the light of day between the United States and Israel regarding Israel’s defense against Iran.

Hours before Iran launched its attack, the US Secretary of Defense and National Security Adviser met with their Israeli counterparts and reiterated their support. And last week, Gen. Eric Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, traveled to Israel to discuss contingency plans with officials ahead of an expected attack.

Biden kept his promise on Friday that “the United States is committed to defending Israel,” and a defense official told CNN that the U.S. military successfully intercepted some Iranian missiles on Saturday.

Conversations about preparing for and coordinating a response to an attack on Iran also included implicit encouragement to the Israeli government not to allow the situation to spiral out of control if Iran’s response was limited in nature. said officials familiar with the matter.

The United States also sends messages to Iran publicly and privately warning it of further escalation of the crisis, and tells its European and Arab allies to use their own influence against Iran to convey similar messages. I put pressure on him.

As Iran’s plan to attack Israel becomes clearer, U.S. officials increasingly believe that Iran is not seeking direct conflict with the United States. Ahead of Saturday’s drone strike by Iran, U.S. officials said they did not expect targets to include U.S. forces in the region.

This is a change from the early days of the conflict, when Iranian-backed militias regularly attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East, including an attack that killed three Americans in Jordan. Attacks by Iranian proxies weakened after the United States launched retaliatory strikes.

However, smoldering tensions between Iran and Israel have not yet eased. Without direct lines of communication between the two countries, the risk of miscalculation increases.

CNN’s Oren Lieberman contributed reporting.