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- Written by Frank Gardner
- BBC security correspondent
image source, Getty Images
A former commander of the British Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could be defeated by Russia in 2024.
General Richard Barrons told the BBC there was a “significant risk” that Ukraine would lose the war this year.
The reason for this is that “Ukraine may start to feel that it cannot win.”
“And once you get to that point, why do people want to fight and die any longer just to protect the indefensible?”
Ukraine has not yet reached that stage.
However, its military is severely lacking in ammunition, troops, and air defense. A highly publicized counteroffensive last year failed to dislodge Russian troops from occupied territory, and Moscow is now preparing for a summer offensive.
So what would that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives?
“The shape of the future Russian offensive is very clear,” General Barrons said.
“We are seeing Russia being overwhelmed on the front lines, using a 5-to-1 advantage in artillery, ammunition, and surplus personnel enhanced by the use of modern weaponry.”
image source, Getty Images
These include the FAB glide bomb, a modified Soviet-era “dumb bomb” equipped with fins, GPS guidance and 1,500 kg of high explosives, which is wreaking havoc on Ukraine’s defenses. It will be done.
“At some point this summer,” General Barrons says, “we expect to see a large-scale Russian offensive, perhaps with small advances to try to break through the Ukrainian military lines.” It’s meant to be more than just rushing forward.
“If that happens, we will be at risk of Russian forces breaking through and entering areas of Ukraine that Ukrainian forces cannot stop.”
Last year, the Russians knew exactly where Ukraine was likely to attack, from south of Zaporizhia to the Sea of Azov. They planned accordingly and succeeded in slowing the Ukrainian advance.
Things are turning upside down now as Russia builds up its forces and leaves Kiev guessing where it will attack next.
“One of the challenges the Ukrainians have is that the Russians can choose where to put their troops,” said Dr Jack Watling, senior ground warfare fellow at the Royal Integrated Services Institute (Rusi), a Whitehall think tank. says.
“The front line is very long and Ukrainians need to protect all of it.”
Of course you can’t do that.
“The Ukrainian military will lose ground,” Dr. Watling said. “The question is which population centers will be affected and how much.”
It is quite possible that the Russian General Staff has not yet decided which direction to designate as the main effort. However, the various options can be broadly categorized into three locations.
kharkiv
“Kharkov is certainly vulnerable,” Dr. Watling said.
Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, lies dangerously close to the Russian border and is an attractive target for Moscow.
Currently being bombarded daily by Russian missile attacks, Ukraine does not have sufficient air defenses to defend against a lethal combination of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles directed in its direction.
image source, Getty Images
“I think this year’s offensive will be primarily aimed at breaking through the Donbas,” General Barons added, “and their eyes will be on Kharkov, 29km away.” [18 miles] That’s as far as the Russian border goes, which is a big prize. ”
If Kharkiv falls, will Ukraine continue to function as a viable entity? That would be a devastating blow to both morale and the economy, analysts say.
donbass
The eastern regions of Ukraine, known collectively as Donbas, have been at war since 2014, when Moscow-backed separatists declared themselves a “people’s republic.”
In 2022, Russia illegally annexed two Donbas oblasts, or oblasts, Donetsk and Luhansk. Most of the ground fighting has been fought here for the past 18 months.
Controversially, Ukraine has expended significant effort, both in human and resource terms, in trying to preserve first the town of Bakhmut and then Avdiivka.
In this attempt, we lost both of them, as well as some of our best fighting troops.
Kiev countered that its resistance inflicted disproportionately high casualties on the Russians.
That’s true, the battlefields in these places are called “meat grinders.”
But Moscow has many more troops available for combat, while Ukraine does not.
Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of U.S. Forces in Europe, warned that unless the U.S. rushes more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, U.S. forces will be outnumbered 10 to 1 on the battlefield.
Mass is important. The Russian military may be inferior in tactics, leadership, and equipment to the Ukrainian military, but it is vastly superior in numbers, especially artillery, so if nothing is done this year, the default option is to continue pushing the Ukrainian military back westward. That’s going to happen. From village to village.
Zaporizhia
This is also an attractive prize for Moscow.
The southern Ukrainian city, with a peacetime population of more than 700,000 people, is dangerously close to Russia’s front lines.
It is also a thorny issue for Russia, given that it is the capital of a province of the same name that Russia illegally annexed but still lives freely in Ukrainian hands.
But the formidable defenses Russia built south of Zaporizhzhia last year in anticipation of a Ukrainian attack will complicate future Russian advances there.
The so-called Slovikin Line, a triple layer of defense, contains the world’s largest and most dense minefield. Russia could partially dismantle it, but its preparations would likely be detected.
image source, Getty Images
Russia’s strategic goal this year may not be territorial. It may simply be to break Ukraine’s will to fight and convince Western backers that the war is a lost cause.
Dr. Jack Watling believes Russia’s aim is to “try to create a sense of hopelessness.”
“this [Russian] “No matter what happens on either side, an attack will not definitively end the conflict,” he says.
General Barons is also skeptical that, despite the dire situation Ukraine is currently in, Russia will automatically shift its advantage back to itself with a decisive advance.
“I think the most likely outcome is that Russia may have won, but not broken through.
“There will be no power large enough or strong enough to penetrate all the way to the river.” [Dnipro]…But the war will turn in Russia’s favor. ”
One thing is certain: Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of stopping his attacks on Ukraine.
He’s like a poker player who bets all his chips on winning. He hopes that the West is failing to provide Ukraine with sufficient means to protect itself.
Despite all the NATO summits, all the conferences, all the inspiring speeches, there’s a chance he’s right.
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