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PHOENIX (AP) – Arizona was already expected to be one of the closest states in November’s presidential election.But this week’s verdict enact a near-total abortion ban It strengthened the role of the state and turned it into perhaps the country’s most important battleground.
This Sunbelt state is home to a thriving independence movement. has long been at the forefront of the nation’s immigration debate. Because of its 378-mile border with Mexico and large Hispanic and immigrant population. Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision, reproductive rights have moved to the center of the national debate. ended the federally guaranteed right to abortion..
Abortion and immigration have become two of this year’s biggest political issues. No battleground state is more directly affected by both than Arizona.
“This should not be underestimated,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who is running polls for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, about the Arizona abortion ruling. “It’s changing dynamically.”
Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump are expected to battle hard to win Arizona after Biden won the state by fewer than 11,000 votes four years ago. There is.
In addition to the presidency, the majority of the U.S. Senate is in a race between Republican Kali Lake and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who is caucusing with Democrats. It could be decided by a high-profile fight in the state.
A state Supreme Court ruling reinstating an 1864 anti-abortion law also spurred a Democratic push to add questions to the November legislative session. Ballot asking voters Approving a constitutional amendment that protects the right to abortion until viability; When a fetus can survive outside the womb. Subsequent abortions would be allowed to save the woman’s life and protect her physical or mental health.
Chris Lacivita, a senior Trump campaign adviser who also serves as chief of staff for the Republican National Committee, said Arizona is “an important part of the strategy.”
He declined to discuss specifics about his strategy, but he disagreed that the abortion ruling fundamentally changed the dynamics in Arizona.
“Is abortion an issue that campaigns need to address in battleground states, especially Arizona? Absolutely. We’re doing it, and we feel like we’re going above and beyond what we should be doing,” she said this fall. Lacivita said, even though he suggested other issues would be more salient to most Arizona voters.
“The election will be decided on important issues that most Arizonans have to deal with every day: ‘Can I afford to put food on the table and feed my family? In the car on the way to?’ he said.
Democrats have been quick to note that they have won nearly every major election in which abortion has been on the ballot since the Roe v. Wade reversal in June 2022.
The Biden campaign announced Thursday that it is launching a statewide abortion-related ad campaign that will reach seven figures in size, but ad tracking firms have not yet confirmed any new investments. Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Muñoz said the new ads are in addition to a $30 million national advertising campaign already underway.
In a new ad, Biden directly ties Arizona’s abortion regulations to Trump.
“Your body and your decisions are yours, not the government’s or Donald Trump’s,” Biden said. “I will fight tooth and nail to regain your freedom.”
Beyond the ad campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris will appear in Arizona on Friday to highlight Democrats’ dedication to protecting abortion rights.
Even without this week’s ruling on abortion, Democrats were already making big bets on Arizona this fall.
Biden’s team plans to spend more than $22 million on advertising in Arizona from April 1 through Election Day, according to data collected by ad tracking firm AdImpact. That’s millions of dollars more than other battleground states like Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada. Pennsylvania and Michigan are the only states where Democratic ad spending is increasing.
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has not spent a penny on advertising in Arizona this month and has yet to book any general election ads in the state, according to AdImpact.
However, President Trump remains bullish on the state. The state has supported Republican presidential candidates in every election since 1996, until narrowly supporting Biden in 2020. They point to gradual changes among Hispanic voters, a core group in the Democratic coalition, but could become more bullish going forward. I’m open to Trump.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Republican Party remains mired in infighting in the state, where the party structure built and nurtured by the late Sen. John McCain has been usurped by President Trump’s “Make America Great Again” acolytes. I’m addicted to it.
This division came to a head in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, with Trump and his allies enthusiastically lining up behind Kali Lake, while traditional conservatives and business establishments supported his rival.
Mr. Lake won the primary election. Rather than mending her fences with the establishment she had beaten, she gloated that she had “driven a stake into the heart of the McCain establishment.” Since then, she has made a more concerted effort behind the scenes to win over her Republican critics, with mixed results.
Lake, a leading MAGA figure who has sometimes been talked about as a running mate for President Trump, is currently running in the state’s high-profile U.S. Senate race.
Like President Trump, she has expressed opposition to the latest abortion rulings, arguing that they are too restrictive. But two years ago, Lake called the anti-abortion law “a great piece of legislation” and said he was “incredibly excited” it was on the bill, adding that he thought the law “should be followed by other states.” “It will set the course,” he predicted.
The ruling played directly into the hands of his Democratic rival, Gallego, who had already made abortion rights a central part of his pitch to Arizona voters.
“I think we were on our way to winning,” he said in an interview. “I think what this system does is it focuses the attention of people who probably didn’t think of abortion rights as the most important thing or one of their top priorities.”
Meanwhile, Anzalone, Biden’s head of polling, warned against overconfidence in the Biden party.
“It’s not going to be easy. These are all close fights. I’m not getting ahead of myself by any means,” he said of fighting in Arizona this fall. “But we like the advantages we have there.”
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