Should Europe worry about war?

A surprising statement from Germany’s health minister was released in early March. “Germany needs to be better prepared not only for future pandemics, but also for large-scale disasters and possible military conflicts,” said Karl Lauterbach with the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung. In an interview, he expressed the following concerns: Possibility of escalation of conflict in Ukraine.

He added: “Even if it seems unlikely, especially considering that Germany could become a center for the treatment of wounded people from other countries if NATO’s mutual assistance provisions were to be triggered. “We also need to strengthen our medical system,” he added. We are already consulting with experts from the Bundeswehr and working closely with the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of the Interior. A bill on this issue will be introduced during the summer and will be submitted to Cabinet promptly thereafter. ”

This statement received a lot of attention and may have been interpreted by some as an exaggeration. But by the end of March, another statement from Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk resonated as even more alarming. “I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept of the past,” he said in his speech. In late March, in an interview with European media, he emphasized that this was the first time Europe had faced such a situation since 1945 and warned that “literally any scenario is plausible.”

ambition

Two years was enough to crush any aspirations for a united Europe, and it proved to be a formidable force capable of intervening in major crises within its immediate territory. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted the disparities and hesitations within the EU, a fact that has been further highlighted by subsequent conflicts, including the October 7 Hamas-led offensive in southern Israel and the ongoing Israeli military operation in Gaza. As a result, tens of thousands of people died. casualties.

Questions remain about whether the European Union can contribute to peace efforts and establish itself as the global power its leaders envision. However, public statements suggest that the general feeling is that the most practical course of action is to prepare for potential conflict. These crises, especially the wars unfolding on European soil, have revealed the continent’s vulnerability. The EU’s foreign, security and defense policy remains inadequate in dealing with such conflicts.

soft power and hard power

Europeans often boast of being skilled at leveraging soft power rather than relying on hard power. The two countries’ solidarity in lifting sanctions against Russia has been hailed as a demonstration of bloc cooperation, as well as financial and political support for Ukraine. However, it is important to remember that since the cessation of hostilities in the former Yugoslavia in 1999, the EU has struggled to promote lasting stability and democracy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Similarly, the Kosovo effort was similarly disappointing. Many EU member states do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, and Brussels has struggled to establish strong rule of law institutions in the region.

During the months of women’s protests in Iran, the EU remained largely silent and inactive. It has failed to address issues such as Israel’s persistent expansion of illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, attacks on refugee camps in Jenin, and corruption within the Palestinian Authority. The EU’s influence has been minimal when it comes to conflicts in Sudan and Tunisia, which have exacerbated migration issues.

achilles tendon

The lack of a defensive strategy represents Europe’s Achilles heel. Despite its aspirations to become a global player, this goal can still only be achieved to a certain extent through trade and political capacity. French President Emmanuel Macron sees the Ukraine war as an opportunity for Europe to strengthen its defense and security capabilities, calling it “strategic autonomy.” Contrary to fears in Poland and the Baltic states that this could sever ties with NATO, it would instead strengthen Europe’s position within NATO, especially if President Donald Trump is reelected. The goal is to prepare for a scenario in which the United States could weaken its commitment to military alliances. He will be elected President of the United States in November.

“If you want peace, you must prepare for war.”

– European Council President Charles Michel

Discussion on the sensitive issue of increased defense spending and the possible introduction of Eurobonds for defense will begin at the March summit and continue at three further summits in the run-up to the European elections in June. become. The defense Eurobond proposal has caused divisions among EU leaders, with countries in the South supporting it and those in the North continuing to resist. Nevertheless, open discussions continue and EU leaders agree that all measures to significantly strengthen Europe’s defenses should be considered.

European Council President Charles Michel recently said: “If we want peace, we must prepare for war.” With tensions rising in the northern and southern regions of the continent, the question arises as to what action can be taken. Is there room for diplomacy, tough statements, practical measures, threats, or a combination of these approaches?

strategic ambiguity

The backdrop is tense, and the leader’s tour shows Europe’s fluidity and potential for development. Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Paris in May, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Beijing just a few weeks apart. But it was Putin’s words in a post-election speech in Russia that seemed to offer a glimpse of hope for Ukraine.

“It looks like France can play a role. All is not lost yet,” he said, potentially addressing Emmanuel Macron, as reported by Répubblica newspaper. In reality, the French president has significantly changed his approach toward Russia in recent months. He has taken a particularly hard line against the Kremlin and has not ruled out sending Western European soldiers to Ukrainian territory. This statement caused a disagreement with Berlin and brought Paris into direct confrontation with Moscow.

However, as the Elysée Palace has repeatedly stated, President Macron’s considerations go beyond mere military escalation, and that such escalation, including front-line actions, the Spring Offensive, and new challenges to the Western coalition, could be “only for Russia.” “It depends on the situation,” he emphasizes. Supporting Ukraine. Despite these risks, Mr. Macron aims to rally allies to expand and accelerate aid to Kiev. “The war is being fought on European soil,” he said in an interview with France’s leading television channel. “The distance between Strasbourg and Lviv is less than 1,500 kilometers.” Moreover, there are signs that Macron is unwilling to abandon his role as a “force for peace,” as he emphasized in the same speech. “If you want peace, you must prepare for war,” he frequently asserts.

“We can’t beat Russia”

However, the concept of “strategic ambiguity,” which includes more than just military options, can be interpreted in two ways. Macron’s recent actions signal a return to diplomatic language. In Berlin, alongside Olaf Scholz and Donald Tusk, he no longer advocated “the defeat of Russia to ensure the security of Europe,” but rather that “Russia cannot and must not win.” However, this is an important nuance.

However, there is another aspect to consider. Macron told a Ukrainian newspaper that Russia would be asked to respect the ceasefire in Ukraine during the Paris Olympics. The French president’s team is currently downplaying the extension of the measure to Moscow, but some insiders believe it could be a card Macron plays if the conditions are right.

In January, Mr. Macron announced his intention to hold a peace conference on Ukraine around the time of President Putin’s re-election. At the time, the idea appeared to be shelved indefinitely, but analysts say Macron’s recent shift toward a more militaristic approach is laying the groundwork for a return to diplomatic efforts. I’m guessing it’s possible.

“No Limit Partnership”

In early May, President Macron is scheduled to receive Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will be making his first trip to Europe since the start of the pandemic. The visit comes as China seeks to mend relations with Europe strained by Xi and Putin’s “unrestricted partnership” despite the Kremlin’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict. It coincides with the 60th anniversary. The trip, which has been planned for months, will be closely monitored by both Washington and European capitals.

China is trying to persuade Europe to include Russia in future peace talks, possibly in Switzerland, according to officials cited by Politico. Otherwise, the Chinese government threatens to boycott such negotiations. Additionally, Putin is expected to visit Beijing in May, likely before Xi’s visit to Paris, marking the first foreign trip of the new president’s term. It is noteworthy that, in contrast to Western European leaders who have criticized the electoral process, President Xi was the first to congratulate President Putin on his re-election. The flurry of visits has fueled speculation that Putin and Xi may collaborate on a peace plan to propose to European countries.

This article was originally published by the Media Education Development Incubator (iMEdD).