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CNN — (CNN) — The threat from ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, may have appeared to be waning as headlines turned to Ukraine, Gaza and the upcoming U.S. election. But last week’s attack on a concert hall in Moscow reminded the world of the enduring dangers of Islamist terrorism and the ambitions of the group known as IS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) that lies far beyond its camp in the mountains of Afghanistan. .
Analysts believe the group is increasing its focus on Europe, pointing to events such as this year’s Paris Olympics as potential targets.
ISIS claimed responsibility for the Moscow attack. The fact that Tajik nationals were allegedly involved indicates that ISIS-K was involved. The group draws many members from Central Asia and has a record of previous conspiracies in Russia. U.S. officials also said there was evidence that ISIS-K carried out the attack.
ISIS-K was established nine years ago as an autonomous “province” of the Islamic State and has survived despite many enemies, proving capable of launching attacks in Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia. Prior to the Crocus City attack, other attacks were planned in Europe and Russia. Gen. Eric Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, recently said that ISIS-K “remains capable and willing to attack U.S. and Western interests abroad with little or no warning and within as little as six months.” ”
UN experts and other parties, including Russian security officials, estimate ISIS-K’s strength at between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters. Sanaullah Ghafari became the group’s leader in 2020, and despite occasional reports of his death, terrorism analysts believe he remains an effective leader.
Both the Taliban and the United States are working, albeit uncoordinatedly, to dislodge ISIS-K from its safe havens in eastern Afghanistan. However, a recent analysis published in The Sentinel, the journal of West Point’s Counterterrorism Center, found that the center is a “resilient organization that can adapt to changing dynamics and evolve to survive difficult situations.” It continues to exist.”
Durability and scalability
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior adviser at the New York-based Counter-Extremism Project, told CNN that ISIS-K has “a willingness to plan beyond Afghanistan and carry out regional attacks in Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia.” We are increasing that capacity.” It is supported by strong media output in Tajik, Uzbek and Russian. Fitton-Brown said that in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s “Pashto chauvinism is helping ISIS-K recruit from other Afghan ethnic groups.”
The most notorious attack by ISIS-K to date was a suicide bombing at Kabul airport in 2021 that killed nearly 200 people, including 13 US soldiers guarding the airport.
The Taliban continues to carry out suicide bombings and assassination operations against them, viewing them as insufficiently radical and beholden to outside forces. Just last week, an ISIS-K suicide bomber detonated an explosive belt among Taliban militia in the Afghan city of Kandahar, causing dozens of casualties, according to local reports.
But ISIS-K is also expanding its trajectory. Over the past three years, ISIS-K has become “more ambitious and aggressive in its efforts to gain notoriety and relevance across South and Central Asia,” said Amira Jadoon, author of a book on ISIS-K. “We have launched the most aggressive multilingual propaganda campaign.” And the types of attacks being carried out are expanding. ”
“China is effectively merging widespread regional grievances into a global jihadist agenda,” Jadoon told CNN.
Last year, the group carried out a devastating bomb attack on an election rally in Bawjour, Pakistan, killing more than 60 people. It has also established a foothold in Pakistan’s restive Baluchistan province, which borders Iran.
In January, ISIS claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings in the Iranian city of Kerman that killed 90 people and injured more than 200. “Given the proximity of the attacks, it requires a very sectarian attack strategy” for ISIS, said Clemson University associate professor Jadoon. , and given its diverse membership base, ISK [as the group is also called] Involved in the attack on Kerman. ”
threat to europe
ISIS-K has ambitions far beyond South Asia, aiming to target Russia, Western Europe, and even the United States. Even if ISIS-K’s capabilities still fall short of its ambitions, European security agencies are paying increased attention to this threat.
Hans-Jacob Schindler, senior director of the Counter-Extremism Project, said seven men were arrested in Germany last July on suspicion of planning a major attack and having contact with ISIS-K planners. Pointed out. All suspects were from Central Asia.
Two Afghan nationals were detained in Germany this month and accused of making “concrete preparations” to attack the Swedish parliament in retaliation for a spate of Quran burnings in the country. One of them joined ISIS-K last year, and their plans were done “in close consultation” with ISIS-K operatives, prosecutors claimed.
“ISIS Khorasan has relied primarily on inexperienced operatives in Europe to carry out attacks in its name,” Christine Abizaid, director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, told Congress last fall. Stated.
Fitton Brown, former coordinator of UN sanctions and threat assessments on ISIS, al-Qaeda and the Taliban, agreed that the European threat so far is “immature and nascent”, but that ISIS- He warned that K was “embedded in the Central Asian diaspora.” Mainly in Russia and Türkiye, and to some extent in Germany as well. ”
He characterized the Moscow attack as a “landmark success” for the group, saying it demonstrated a level of planning not previously seen outside South Asia. ISIS claimed that Crocus City Hall was under intensive surveillance.
A U.S. Department of Defense assessment leaked last year found that “ISIS has developed a cost-effective model for foreign operations that relies on resources from outside Afghanistan, operatives in target countries, and an extensive support network.” ing.
In the wake of the Moscow attacks, France, which is hosting the Olympics this year, has raised its terrorist threat level to maximum. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said thousands more soldiers were ready to strengthen anti-terrorism forces, adding: “The Islamist threat is real… We are always prepared for all scenarios.” .
Fitton-Brown doesn’t think that’s a cause for concern. “I hope I’m wrong, but I’m very worried about the Paris Olympics,” he told CNN. He described the rise of ISIS-K, the anger among radicalized people over the situation in Gaza, and the “perfect storm” of former jihadists being released from prisons in Europe after serving their sentences.
Jadoon said the risk that ISIS-K’s “brand resonates with individual sympathizers in the West” cannot be overlooked. She explained that the extremists see it as an “inspirational and growing force” and may therefore attract people from Western countries who are attracted to its ideology. This could lead to attempts by individuals to travel to conflict zones and join their ranks, or to carry out attacks in their home countries on behalf of the group. ”
Hate President Putin and the “Eastern Crusaders”
Russia may be particularly vulnerable to ISIS-K. Ten years ago, then-ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared that “the Crusaders and their allies, and with them the rest of the Kufr (infidel) nations and religions, are all led by the United States and Russia.” denounced.
A year later, the ISIS franchise in the Sinai Peninsula claimed responsibility for a bomb that crashed a Russian chartered plane flying from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg, killing all 224 people on board.
ISIS’s dislike of Vladimir Putin stems from Russia’s role in supporting the Assad regime in Syria and the brutal Chechen war at the beginning of this century. Russia’s support for the Central Asian dictatorships, which ISIS-K describes as Russia’s “puppets,” has deepened hostility.
ISIS-K also derides the Taliban for being “friends with Russians who have murdered Chechen Muslims.” In 2022, an ISIS-K suicide bomber attacked the Russian embassy in Kabul, killing two staff members.
It is clear that this group is trying to establish itself within Russia. Earlier this month, the Russian Security Service (FSB) announced that it had killed two ISIS-K operatives in the Kaluga region who were planning an attack on a Moscow synagogue.
“Geographical proximity, the inclusion of Central Asian fighters in its ranks, and its determined regional and global propaganda strategy make IS-K likely “This suggests that it may have played a role in this attack, either by sending or funding its own armed groups.” Support and training for perpetrators. ”
Mr. Fitton-Brown said that Russia is struggling to improve its security services, with its security services occupied by huge numbers of migrant workers from Ukraine and Central Asia, at least some of whom are likely to have become radicalized. considered to be extremely vulnerable to attacks. All those arrested since the Crocus City attack are Tajikistan nationals.
Several previous ISIS-inspired or alleged attacks in Russia have involved Tajiks, Uzbeks, or Kyrgyzstans. In 2017, an Uzbek suicide bomber killed 15 people in the St. Petersburg metro.
Easy travel from Turkey could increase Russia’s vulnerability. Turkish security sources confirmed to CNN that two of the Crocus City attackers spent time in Istanbul and returned to Russia in early March. Fitton-Brown considers this factor to be “very important” given the presence of Tajik migrant workers in Turkey. . Shamil Khukmatov, a Tajik national who is one of the group’s “most active propagandists and high-ranking recruiters,” was arrested in Turkey last year, according to the United Nations.
The Russian government’s attitude before and after the Moscow attack may not be helpful in confronting the threat. After the United States warned in early March of a possible terrorist attack over “large gatherings, including a concert in Moscow,” Putin warned that “provocative statements by a number of Western official bodies…all these “This is a blatant threat and resembles an intent to instill fear and terror.” It destabilizes our society. ”
Schindler, of the Counter-Extremism Project, said that even if the FSB had known of such a plot, the protective deployment of security forces to the concert would have been against the Kremlin and therefore unwise.
After the attack, President Putin said the attack was carried out “by the hands of Islamic extremists” but was sponsored by other countries and suggested Ukraine was involved, a claim strongly denied by Kiev and Washington. According to FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, three countries were behind the attack: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine.
Moscow’s narrative is that even if ISIS-K or ISIS-inspired individuals stepped up their operations in Russia, they would be seen as puppets of dark forces. That can distort information gathering.
For ISIS-K, the Moscow attack is a coup. Rita Katz, executive director of Site Intelligence, said: “ISIS’s global support relies in no small part on its image as a capable organization, and this devastating massacre in Russia is a testament to that. It only worsens the image.”
The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
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