‘Problem child’: Transport on track to generate almost half of Europe’s emissions by 2030

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Transport alone is expected to account for almost half of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, new analysis from campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E) has found.

Emissions from transportation across the continent have increased by more than a quarter since 1990, even though overall emissions have declined.

Since its peak in 2007, transport decarbonization has progressed more than three times slower than other sectors of the economy, according to T&E.

“The good news is that emissions from transport in Europe have peaked. The bad news is that other sectors are decarbonizing three times faster,” T&E Executive Director , says William Totz.

“By 2030, almost half of the continent’s emissions will come from mobility, making it a problem in Europe’s climate fight. To bring the continent’s carbon emissions to zero by 2050, It is now vital that we decarbonise this sector as quickly as possible.”

What is the biggest source of transport emissions in the EU?

In 2022, transport emissions will account for 29 percent of the EU’s total emissions, almost twice as many as in 1990. While non-transport emissions have fallen by 38 percent over the past 30 years, greenhouse gases from aviation, shipping, roads and rail have increased. One quarter each.

The analysis also shows that gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles account for 40% of the fleet. Transport emissions. According to T&E, Europe’s dependence on automobiles has increased significantly since the 1990s, with more vehicles on the road and more highways being built.

Overall road transport, including trucks and cars, accounts for 70% of transport emissions.

Preliminary data shows that emissions from road transport and shipping fell last year, but this decline was not reversed by the post-pandemic recovery in air travel.

Emissions from aviation have doubled over the past 30 years, faster than any other transport sector. And T&E adds that the climate impact of the flight could be triple his due to the additional impact of contrails.

Contrails and condensation trails are caused by ice crystals forming around tiny carbon particles emitted by airplane engines. They trap heat in the atmosphere, and a 2022 IPCC report found they can release heat.It is responsible for more than one-third of aviation’s contribution to global warming.

Cars, ships and planes: why are European transport emissions so high?

Under current policies as part of the European Green Deal, transport’s “runaway” emissions risk reaching 44 per cent of total emissions, the analysis found.

It says that by 2040 greenhouse gas emissions from aviation, shipping, roads and railways will be reduced by just 25% compared to 1990 levels, and by 2050 emissions will have fallen by 62%. .

T&E added that cars, vans and trucks purchased between now and when the EU bans the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2035 will continue to be on European roads for years to come.

Cities are also at the forefront of this transition. For short distances, public transport, walking and cycling are more viable options, but even though car ownership has stagnated for more than a decade in many major European cities, Automobiles are still the mainstream.

In some cities, including Brussels, London and Vienna, ownership has even declined since the early 2000s.

There is little incentive for shipping companies to improve efficiency, and under current policies, European shipping is projected to account for a third of total transport emissions by 2050. Although Europe is leading the way in decarbonising this sector, existing policies mean that ships will continue to run on fossil fuels from mid-century onwards.

Increased airport capacity Airline demand is also being stimulated. Aviation is the most climate-changing mode of transportation and has had the fastest growing emissions since 1990.

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How can transport emissions in Europe be reduced?

The campaign group insists the right policies are in place, including green fuels for aviation and shipping, investment in infrastructure and electrification of company cars. Tailpipe emissions It could be almost completely eradicated by mid-century.

“Trucks and vans can be electrified cheaply using batteries and renewable energy, and this is currently some of the lowest-hanging fruit in climate action,” says Totz.

To decarbonize transport in Europe, we also need to decarbonize electricity production. Renewable energy already accounts for 44% of electricity generation in 2023, but “we need to ensure that these green electrons are not wasted,” the analysis says.

This highlights that direct electrification of vehicles is almost four times more efficient than using electronic fuels.

“Airplanes and ships have more difficult challenges and require significant effort from fuel suppliers to expand green fuels such as electronic kerosene and ammonia, as well as plans to eliminate contrails.”

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The analysis shows that reducing the number of flights is the only way to significantly reduce the airline industry’s overall climate impact over the next decade.

that’s something sustainable aviation fuel It cannot be achieved in the short term. Hydrogen and battery electric aircraft are also being developed, but their ability to reduce emissions will largely depend on manufacturers’ commitments to deliver these aircraft.

Totz also said that ending road and airport expansion would make decarbonization much easier.