Lessons learned from the March 19 primary elections including Illinois and Ohio

Below are some takeaways from the results.

1. Ohio Republican Party returns to MAGA with support from Democrats

Republicans have once again bypassed establishment Republicans to get MAGA candidates who may not be electable. And again, you’ll soon find out if it costs anything.

Bernie Moreno, a businessman supported by President Trump, received the majority of votes, leading state Sen. Matt Dolan 50% to 33%. Secretary of State Frank LaRose was behind with 17%.

Moreno will now face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in a state ripe for a Republican pickup. The race could be crucial with a Senate map that looks favorable to Republicans, with just one or two flips needed to upset Democrats’ 51-49 majority. After deep-red West Virginia, Ohio ranks along with three other “toss-up” states, according to the Cook Political Report.

But there is reason to think Moreno could complicate the party’s path to a majority, as many MAGA-aligned candidates and election deniers have done before him. Moreno not only received support from President Trump, but also labeled the Jan. 6 defendants “political prisoners” and the 2020 election “stolen,” after previously singing another song on the subject. pasted.

Moreno’s victory comes two weeks after the North Carolina Republican Party nominated Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has supported many extreme positions, to be lieutenant governor.

Democrats also tried to push Moreno over the line in the final stages of the primary, effectively joining Trump and his efforts. They ran millions of dollars worth of ads, ostensibly warning him that he was too conservative, but actually exalting him. It was the latest example of Democrats employing a controversial tactic.

This tactic worked in 2022, and there is reason to believe it will succeed again. Recent polls have shown Mr. Dolan, who has distanced himself from Trumpism but is not technically a Never Trumper, leading Mr. Moreno by 2 to 7 points.

Ohio is currently a red state, but Mr. Brown has built a strong populist brand in the state. And while Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) rode his pro-Trump turn to victory in 2022, he far underperformed other Republicans statewide.

This race will be the focus of the 2024 Senate race, even more so now.

2. Protest votes against President Trump remain strong

Once again, more Republican primary voters voted against Trump than Democratic primary voters voted for Biden.

In Florida, Illinois and Ohio, about one in five voters voted against Trump. And in Kansas, about a quarter voted no.

By contrast, Biden conceded nearly 1 in 10 votes in Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio.

Some observations from the results and exit polls:

There are some questions about how much Nikki Haley’s performance owes to early voters who cast their votes before she was eliminated. However, about half of Ohio’s early voting took place after she dropped out, so there appears to be a significant number of protest votes remaining.

Exit polls also found that only seven in 10 Republican primary voters said they would “definitely” support Trump, and one in 10 said they would “probably” support Trump. An additional 2 in 10 said they were leaning toward Biden or a third-party candidate.

As appears to have happened in Georgia, that may include many voters who tend to vote against Republican candidates and show up to express their disappointment. But Tuesday’s primary election in Florida suggests something more significant may be going on.

Nearly 20% of Florida Republican primary voters voted for a candidate other than Trump. (This includes 4% for Ron DeSantis, the home state governor who withdrew from the race two months ago and was recently attacked by President Trump.)

In fact, this wasn’t as much of a protest vote as in Illinois or Ohio. But crucially, Florida has canceled its primary elections. That means only registered Republicans can vote. So unlike many other states where independent voters and even Democrats can vote against Trump, that was not the case in Florida.

This appears to be a genuine protest vote by actual Republicans, as Florida also began a mandatory early voting period after Haley left.

If this trend continues, about one in five Republican primary voters will continue to vote against Trump.

3. President Trump factors will have a major influence on the Republican primary election

Other primaries on Tuesday confirmed Trump’s continued endorsement in the Republican House primary and, perhaps more importantly, the Republicans’ willingness to criticize him at their peril. It seems that it was done.

In Ohio, Republicans frantically searched for alternatives after a tape leaked of leading Republican candidate Craig Riedel calling Trump “arrogant” and suggesting he could not support him. They gave one to state Rep. Derek Melin, who won President Trump’s endorsement just before voting began.

Mr. Melin was declared the winner, holding a double-digit lead over Mr. Riedel in a key November battleground held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur.

In Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District, three candidates claiming the MAGA label were fighting to win a crowded primary. Meanwhile, only 5% of former Cincinnati City Council members criticized President Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and received significant support from like-minded super PACs.

Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), who faces a MAGA primary challenger backed by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), may also have been saved by President Trump’s support. Bost received the majority of votes, giving him a 54-46 lead over 2022 Illinois gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey (no winner has been announced, but it will be difficult for Bailey to overcome that gap). .

Bost’s district is one of several where sitting members of Congress are supporting challengers to their colleagues, a highly unusual situation.