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More than two years have passed since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and this weekend will mark another grim milestone. The idea is that the person most responsible, Vladimir Putin, will almost certainly be re-elected. If he remains president for another six years, he will become Russia’s longest-serving leader since Catherine the Great in the 18th century.
After the first humiliation suffered by the Russian military at the gates of Kiev in early 2022, many believed that Putin’s reputation at home and abroad would never recover. In April of the same year, then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made an unusual address to the Russian people in their native language. “We know that your president would not support his war if he could see what was going on,” he said.
But now, with carefully manipulated opinion polls predicting a landslide victory for President Putin, all real domestic opposition to him being crushed, and Russia making gradual advances on the battlefield, , few would argue that the Russian government has regained strategic control.
The ammunition crisis, disagreements among Western allies in Kiev, and Washington’s failure to pass a critical military aid package have left President Putin with no chance of a breakthrough, as US national security adviser Jake Sullivan says. A potentially dangerous situation has arisen. .
Europe seems surprisingly happy about all this. Once Britain was the most vocal defender of Ukraine’s struggle for survival, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office now appears interested in criticizing Israel’s war against Hamas. Germany seems to have lost confidence and given up completely.
Indeed, Emmanuel Macron would have us believe that he has undergone a Damascene transformation. Although he previously worried that Putin should not be “humiliated”, he now does not rule out the possibility of wearing Western boots on the ground. But he may not have the credibility to galvanize the continent’s resolve, as the Czech Republic’s efforts to procure new ammunition for Ukraine demonstrate. That resolve remains strong in Eastern and Central Europe.
As America turns inward and the broader world loses interest, it should be clear to everyone that this is now Europe’s battle. Putin, who has consolidated his power at home, will bet that we no longer have the energy.
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