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The European elections scheduled for June will be a challenge for Europe’s conservatives and Christian Democrats. The fate of the long-standing coalition between populists and social democrats in the European Parliament is on the brink. Recent events in Portugal, where a centre-right coalition narrowly won and far-right forces gained strength, highlight the complexities facing populist coalitions. The broader focus is on the crucial European Parliament elections in June, which will be a barometer for the European Union at a difficult time. Opinion polls show that support for ultra-conservative and populist parties is increasing. The European People’s Party (EPP) says it will identify potential alliances with acceptable right-wing factions, as seen in the recent political situation in Italy, where far-right Giorgia Meloni came to power with support from conservatives. facing challenges.
The EPP, whose latest manifesto was approved by parliament in Bucharest, has moved further to the right, leaning towards a tougher stance on immigration and greater skepticism towards the EU. Despite being considered the leading party in opinion polls, the dynamics within the party are changing as right-wing forces seek to strengthen their influence.
The Portuguese conservatives of the Democratic Alliance (AD) said they would lead as a minority and would not work with the populist far-right Chega party. Recent events in Portugal, where the Socialist Party held an absolute majority just two years ago, before a corruption scandal brought down Antonio Costa’s government, said Ignacio Molina of the Spanish think tank Elcano Royal Institute. , highlighting the growing normalization of the radical right. . With Costa gone, socialist representation in the European Council has been significantly weakened.
Far-right and populist parties have a large presence in various European governments, and currently govern Ireland and Greece. Their support ranges from 10% to more than 40% of voters, as seen in parties such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France and Italy’s right-wing coalition led by the Meloni brothers. “The EPP cannot ignore this reality, especially in the European elections, when dissatisfaction can be vented more easily,” Molina said.
European populists have drawn certain red lines, but they are careful to avoid being too strict. Recently, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is seeking re-election, criticized “friends of Putin”, populism, and far-right and far-left movements. He singled out Le Pen’s party, which is expected to win a large number of votes in France, and far-right MPs from Alternative for Germany (AfD). “They are trying to destroy Europe,” she warned. But her words also left room for other, less far-right groups to embrace them. After all, she belongs to the increasingly conservative EPP, which shares many elements with these parties.
A useful but uneasy alliance
Germany’s EPP leader Manfred Weber has openly supported an alliance with a more radical partner to form a new government. He emphasizes the importance of being “pro-EU, pro-rule of law, pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO.” However, some conservative national parties ignore certain aspects of this premise. For example, Spain’s People’s Party is linked to the Europhobic far-right party Vox and shares power in various municipalities. The alliance will fall short of a majority in the July 2023 general election and has often criticized the “Brussels bureaucracy”. It even attacks the autonomous government provisions of the Spanish Constitution, clearly contradicting Weber’s position defending the rule of law.
The model institute supported by Weber is the Meloni government in Italy. Her Italian brother party is affiliated with the European Reformist and Conservative Party (ECR), a center-right political group in the European Parliament made up primarily of anti-federalists. The group, which sometimes calls itself “Eurorealists,” also includes Vox, Poland’s Law and Justice party, and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s more moderate party. Conservative members of the European Parliament point out that the EPP has long favored Fiala and Meloni in hopes of luring them into more moderate territory. Alternatively, the EPP could deepen its ties with that faction. “The ECR plays an important role in the European Parliament and we want to work with it,” said Antonio Tajani of Forza Italia (in the EPP), the political party founded by Silvio Berlusconi.
The EU’s conservatives are facing an identity crisis, raising questions about the future of the long-standing coalition between the EPP and the Social Democratic Progressive Union (S&D), in which liberals play a central role. Can this coalition be maintained? Ms von der Leyen is likely to remain president of the European Commission, but faces a difficult balance requiring support from the governments of various EU member states and the diverse European Parliament. This complexity highlights the need for a flexible approach.
Socialists have already warned von der Leyen that an alliance with the far right is a red line that cannot be crossed. “We must secure the future of the EU and maintain our alliance with pro-European political forces,” said Irache García, president of the European Parliament’s S&D Group. “We are concerned about fluctuations in the EPP.” García accused von der Leyen and European conservatives of “whitewashing and normalizing” the far right and leaving room for future alliances. .
Ignacio Molina believes that the EPP aims to avoid falling into the trap of this political dilemma. “They will be able to deal with it without jeopardizing the grand coalition idea. Five prime ministers of the main member states (Germany, France, Spain, Austria and Belgium) are not members of the EPP, and the far-right-aligned Fon “They will not support Der Leyen. But they may later form a legislative coalition and enact certain policies that lean more to the right,” he said. “If this coalition [between the EPP and the S&D] If it collapses, the EU and its legitimacy will be undermined. ”
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