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But over time, Rasmussen’s inability to meet 538’s standards, and two dubious polls conducted among right-wing groups, ultimately led 538 to make changes this week. .
Last month, Rasmussen’s approval rating for President Biden was included in the site’s average. Not so anymore. Searching for “Rasmussen” in the 538 pollster rankings only returns pollster Scott Rasmussen, not the company he founded and left.
“It’s a good thing 538 is irrelevant,” Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Report’s vice president of operations, said in an email to The Washington Post. When asked about the changes.
Over the years, Rasmussen’s results have been more favorable to Republican candidates and issues. But under Trump, the site’s public presence has become more overtly partisan, including tracking polls sponsored by conservative authors and causes and a social media presence. My feelings increased. hugged false claims It spread wide to the right. Mr. Rasmussen’s polls sometimes aggressively promoted debunked claims, including those centered on voter fraud.
Last March, for example, Rasmussen released data showing that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake (R) won the November 2022 gubernatorial race. The path to that decision was circuitous and unusual, to say the least. Mr. Rasmussen, on behalf of the College Republicans, asked Arizona voters who they voted for in Mr. Lake’s race and, after weighting the results into exit polls (which is unusual), was certified. Contrary to the tallies, Kali Lake declared herself the winner of the race. 8 points.
The election of 2.5 million voters was made available four months later by a Republican-leaning pollster to 1,000 Arizonans, who adjusted the results to a metric known as exit polls, which themselves are weighted to the election. It’s a better indicator of election results than retrospective questions. result. But Rasmussen loudly trumpeted this revisionist view of race, including from Stephen K. Bannon. podcast —So did Trump’s allies.
This prompted one of the questions Morris sent to Rasmussen in June.
“[D]oes The Rasmussen Report believes that the results of the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, certified by the state Department of Elections, are fraudulent,” one of the questions asked. Is it as stated on Mr. Bannon’s show in April of this year? ”
Mr. Morris, who has publicly criticized polling organizations in the past, asked Mr. Rasmussen to answer several questions about the poll’s methodology, including one that focused on the Arizona results. (Example: “Because poll results do not match observable election results… [h]Apparently you’re addressing that methodological problem? ”) Apparently, instead of answering, Rasmussen made the request public.
Silver, whose departure from the site was announced in April, took issue with Morris’ approach. In July, he said Rasmussen’s grades were generally average and took issue with what he described as a “political litmus test” that Rasmussen was being subjected to. Silver argued that pollsters should have removed Rasmussen from the polls if they violated established rules, but instead Morris engaged in “something like a fishing expedition.”morris answered Indirectly on social media, he asserted that “asking pollsters detailed methodological questions is not (or should be!) controversial.”
In November, 538 and ABC News updated their polling policies ahead of January’s update to polling agency rankings. This new policy, written by Mary Radcliffe and Morris, provides, among other things:
“[p]Allstars can also answer basic questions regarding methodology, including but not limited to the voting mode used (phone, text message, online panel, etc.), source of sample, weighting criteria, and source of voting. Must be. Funding. In most cases, a detailed written methodology description is sufficient to meet this standard, but please contact the polling organization directly to clarify methodological details and ensure that the polling organization still meets our standards. We may also follow up from time to time to make sure you are. ”
A few weeks later, Rasmussen again released questionable poll results on behalf of right-wing groups. The findings are said to have uncovered widespread fraud in 2020, including that one in 12 Americans was offered a “reward” or “compensation” for voting. . Trump and his allies celebrated the poll. Again, this result is inconsistent with the reality that there are no demonstrable large-scale vote-buying schemes at the state or national level.
“538 has a clear and thorough set of voting criteria, which are published on its website,” an ABC News spokesperson said in a statement to The Washington Post. “If a polling agency does not meet the criteria outlined in our policy, it will no longer be included in our statistical models.”
Since 2009, more than a dozen pollsters have been removed from 538 counts. Additionally, other partisan pollsters, such as the Trafalgar Group, are still included in 538 analyses. However, by 538, Mr. Rasmussen was already viewed with skepticism and did not meet the criteria officially established in November. Their results will no longer be included in the aggregation of research that the site considers reliable.
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