Lessons learned from Michigan’s Democratic and Republican primaries

CNN
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Joe Biden and Donald Trump emerged victorious in Michigan’s primary on Tuesday, but a glance at the results shows that both sides have serious concerns about a rematch in November. It has become clear that the situation is becoming more unstable day by day.

Biden’s victory in the Democratic primary came with warnings in the form of “irresponsible” protest votes from progressives, young voters and Arab-American Democrats. If Israel does not change the course of its war in Gaza, it risks losing significant support in future events. Decisive general election state.

On the Republican side, Trump’s victory also failed to hide potentially harmful weaknesses. Once again, a significant number of Republicans voted against an unquestioned party leader. That this happened in Michigan, one of the few states that changed hands from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, is a sign that both candidates need a high base turnout to survive. , which speaks to the critical importance of these concerns and the actions that fuel them. November.

Here are takeaways from the 2024 Michigan presidential primary.

Red flags for Biden and Trump in November

Despite recent adjustments in rhetoric and eleventh-hour chatter about an impending ceasefire, Biden and his team have supported Israel’s right to defend itself. More than 29,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza so far in response to Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. And pressure is mounting on Biden to publicly push for a ceasefire as the civilian death toll, including thousands of children, continues to rise.

In the lead-up to the primary, a coalition called “Listen to Michigan” is calling on Democrats dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the war and critical of the U.S. role in providing weapons to the Israeli military. He urged them to vote “irresponsibly,” in other words, to send a message to Democrats. The White House says what happens in the coming days and weeks could throw the election eight months away into chaos. As of midnight ET, with about 50% of the votes counted, the “uncommitted” support rate was hovering around 13%, a total that far exceeded President Trump’s margin of victory in 2016. It was better than that. (There was no mention of it in the Biden campaign emails touting the president’s Michigan victory) or hints at a conflict between Israel and Hamas. )

The concerns of Biden supporters became evident in the days before the primary. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s claim to CNN’s Dana Bash on Sunday that “any vote not cast for Joe Biden supports a second term for Trump” is either off the mark or could lead to even larger protests. It was either going to bite. Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell, a 2016 Democratic Cassandra figure, has long sounded the alarm, warning of political fallout for Biden.

It may be even harder for Mr. Trump to parse out the roughly 30% of Republicans who voted for either former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or the party’s “non-commitment” line. The presidential nomination, his third in three attempts, could be decided within weeks, but a significant number of Republicans, including in states he narrowly won in 2016, are either firmly opposed to him or have yet to decide. The fact remains that he was not persuaded. Four years later, he lost to Biden by about 150,000 votes.

Supporters of a movement seeking “no-commitment” checks for Democratic voters in Michigan said their campaign was a success because they received enough votes to grab Biden’s attention.

“We know Joe Biden is going to be our nominee. So this is a very, very important result,” said former Michigan congressman and supporter of the “non-commitment” effort. Andy Levin told CNN on Tuesday night. “What I was worried about was this primary going on and the message not getting across to the president about how crazy people are.”

Levin said he thinks the message that Biden cannot win Michigan in November unless he “changes direction” was “effectively conveyed” through Tuesday’s results.

The “No Commitment” campaign remained focused, aimed at persuading President Biden’s White House to seek a permanent ceasefire in the Israeli-Hamas conflict.

“We are continuing in the tradition of the anti-war protesters who came before us,” Listen to Michigan spokesman Abbas Allawi said at the group’s meeting at a Middle Eastern restaurant in Dearborn. ” he said. Mr Alaouie called for a moment of silence for the children killed in Gaza. “Please stop killing our families. That’s all we’re asking,” he said.

Perhaps the biggest question is whether Michigan’s “committed” efforts will spawn imitators, and if so, whether those campaigns will garner many votes in each state’s primary.

In the Midwestern state of Minnesota, which has a large Muslim population, progressives have launched a similar push for no-commitment voting ahead of the Super Tuesday primary, a low-stakes affair in which Biden is expected to win in 2024. He claimed that he was almost certain to win the Democratic nomination in 2019. It’s the perfect time to send a message to the president.

Hayley once again failed to get the momentum-changing win she needed. And as time runs out, her margin is shrinking instead of growing.

The Republican campaign is accelerating, with more than a third of the party’s delegates at stake next week on Super Tuesday, and 56% of delegates expected to be won by March 12.

As the race moves from early voting states where retail politics play a role, to the national stage where money and momentum matter most, the odds for an underdog presidential candidate will only increase.

Many contests choose representatives on a winner-take-all basis, making it impossible for Haley to keep up in a pinch. And the outcome in Michigan was not a close call.

Haley told CNN’s Dana Bash that her goal at Michigan is “to be as competitive as possible.” But the former South Carolina governor hasn’t yet been particularly competitive in any state, losing New Hampshire by 11 points, his closest to Trump yet.

Haley’s campaign tried to tout the Michigan results as a sign of weakness between Trump and Biden.

“Joe Biden is currently losing about 20 percent of the Democratic vote, and many say this is a sign of Biden’s weakness in November. Donald Trump has lost about 35 percent of the vote. “This is a flashing warning sign for President Trump in November,” Haley campaign spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas said in a statement.

But results from the party’s primaries and caucuses so far indicate that Republican voters are unfazed by his assertion that they are better positioned than Trump to defeat Biden in November. ing. That argument also misses the mark in Michigan, where Haley blamed Trump for the Republican Party’s loss of governorship and control of Congress in recent years.

As votes were counted late Tuesday night, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips’ best hope was to avoid finishing fourth in the two-person primary.

as those dissatisfied with the president over his support for Israel in its war with Hamas chose to cast protest votes for those who were “uncommitted” rather than support the only substantive Democratic candidate. Biden’s bizarre and largely unnoticed attempts to challenge him continued to fail. In the race.

What’s even more embarrassing for Phillips is that he was even with Marianne Williamson. Marianne Williamson is an author and speaker who ended a major election campaign a few weeks ago.

Phillips’ highest score was in New Hampshire, where he received nearly 20% of the Democratic primary vote. But Biden was not on the ballot, and he was absent from the race after Granite State officials refused to honor the Democratic National Committee’s new primary calendar. Nor were there any delegates at issue there. Regardless, Biden won by a landslide over Phillips on write-in votes.

The first Midwest contest was supposed to be an opportunity for Phillips to prove himself. Instead, on Tuesday night, he took to X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, and said: Primary voters! ”

Of Michigan’s 55 delegates to the Republican National Convention, only 16 were at issue in Tuesday’s primary. The remainder will be awarded at Saturday’s state party convention.

The divisive battle is the result of Republicans’ reaction to the Democratic Party’s decision to change the party’s presidential nominating calendar after the 2020 election, relegating Iowa and New Hampshire and moving South Carolina and Nevada to the forefront. , placing Michigan State at No. 3 with the new lineup.

Republicans opposed the early holding of Michigan’s primary, saying it violated Republican National Committee rules that limit which states can hold elections by March 1. The RNC and the Michigan Republican Party devised a hybrid model after Democrats, who control Congress and the governor’s office, moved Michigan’s primary to Feb. 27 despite Republican opposition.

This further complicates the problem. The Michigan Republican Party is in the midst of a battle over who will actually lead the party, with two self-proclaimed party leaders scheduled for dueling conventions on Saturday.

The RNC and President Trump have confirmed Pete Hoekstra, former congressman and U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands, as chair. Hoekstra was scheduled to compete Saturday in Grand Rapids. But election conspiracy theorist Cristina Karamo, whom the state party voted to remove from office in January, has refused to relinquish control of her government, claiming she was illegally removed from office. She is planning a convention in Detroit.

Kent County Circuit Court Judge J. Joseph Rossi on Tuesday affirmed Karamo’s removal as state party chairman, calling his subsequent actions on behalf of the party “null and void and of no effect.” ” he said. She has not yet said whether the convention she had planned for Detroit will take place.

Regardless of Karamo’s actions, the RNC’s decision to confirm Hoekstra signaled that the party intends to accept delegates from the convention he oversees.

This story has been updated with additional information.