As Putin’s war in Ukraine draws near to NATO, Europe seeks to thwart Trump.

LONDON — November’s presidential election may be nine months away, but Europe is already turning against President Donald Trump, continental officials told NBC News. They worry about what a second term for Republicans could mean for America’s closest allies.

In his first four years in office, former President Donald Trump shocked Europeans by upending the transatlantic balance that the Western world had established in the postwar era. Their main concern is that a re-elected Trump will double down on aid to Ukraine, reneging on U.S. commitments to protect NATO members and making Ukraine even more vulnerable to Russian attack. It’s about letting it happen.

“If Trump is re-elected, Europe will face a situation not seen since World War II,” said Norbert Röttgen, a veteran German lawmaker and former head of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee. said. “Europe will need to protect its security in unprecedented ways.”

The paradox is that while many of these critics condemn President Trump’s tactics, rhetoric, and motives, they are actually focusing on his central focus: Europe, which has been dominated by U.S. military power and geopolitics for far too long. They agree that they have depended on the influence of others. The prospect of President Trump returning to the White House makes this effort more difficult, especially given recent indications that he may be willing to give Russian President Vladimir Putin free reign and act aggressively at home and abroad. It just gives new urgency to those pushing it.

However, Europe is far from united, and the June election is expected to see the rise of far-right forces led by nationalist parties sympathetic to President Trump’s Ukraine skepticism. On the other hand, those who want to strengthen Europe’s defenses know that this will be an expensive, complex and time-consuming process. Therefore, there is currently a heated debate surrounding this method.

Valérie Heyer, a senior member of the European Parliament from France, said: “With the possibility of a second term for President Trump, any plans to strengthen European sovereignty should not be ruled out.”

“For too long, Europe has relied on the United States for its security,” said Heyer, who heads the Renew Europe group and is French President Emmanuel Macron’s top lawmaker in Brussels. “The time has come for Europe to improve its deterrence capabilities and take security into its own hands.”

Many here believe that President Trump is economic protectionist and perhaps even could start a new trade war against Europe. But their main concern is overwhelmingly defense, namely against Russia.

Although Europe’s economy is small compared to Moscow’s, it has relied on the United States for protection from the Kremlin since the Cold War. Britain and France, two nuclear powers, have relatively small and untested arsenals, as evidenced by this week’s revelation that Britain recently failed to test launch a nuclear submarine. Meanwhile, European conventional forces would be largely unable to defend themselves in a full-scale ground war without American support.

Washington’s NATO allies have increased defense spending in recent years, spurred by President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. But President Trump’s blunt ultimatum to NATO – pay more or we won’t protect you – forces many across the continent to accelerate and coordinate weapons production and supply. I was convinced that there was.

Trump’s senior adviser Jason Miller criticized Biden’s record in Europe, saying the president had led “death and destruction” on the continent.

“President Trump increased NATO spending by requiring allies to pay up, but Joe Biden has gone back to letting them take advantage of American taxpayers,” it said in a written statement. , we can’t be surprised if more wars break out. ”

The former president may have been focused, but he is not the only reason for the harsh reviews European leaders are receiving.

Many in Europe recognize that even if President Joe Biden wins in November, the isolationist ideas that President Trump promoted among some Republicans will persist. In this sense, European leaders and officials are isolating themselves not so much against a possible Trump administration as against a new normal in transatlantic relations.

When it comes to aiding Ukraine, leaders face ambivalent support even among Europeans themselves. More people now support peace talks with Russia than last year, according to a January poll of 17,000 people in 12 countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Dominic Grieve, a former senior British lawmaker who chaired the UK Parliament’s intelligence and security committee until 2019, said the impending election was a “wake-up call” for Europe. But “no matter who wins the next U.S. presidential election, I think there is a limit to how far the U.S. interest in Europe can reach,” said Grieve, a former member of the ruling Conservative Party.

This would mean a fundamental reorganization of the transatlantic relationship that has existed since World War II. Indeed, presidents from Harry Truman to Barack Obama have encouraged Europe to increase military spending. But no one comes close to matching the raw rewards of President Trump’s spending.

Ukraine’s military struggle against Russia has coincided with softening support for Kiev across Europe, with more people supporting a negotiated peace with Russia, according to a January poll from the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank. .

Trump’s critics question whether he really wants to strengthen NATO, an alliance he has criticized for decades, or whether he is simply using the spending argument as an excuse to undermine it. ing. In any case, NATO’s European members argue that the sentiment is reason enough to act, regardless of the motive.

“We have to increase the effectiveness of our military and we have to reorganize and expand our industrial defense capabilities, but this won’t happen overnight and will take time,” said the former prime minister. said German Member of Parliament Roettgen. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet.

Roettgen is among those who say not enough is being done.

But the EU says it is trying. Next month, the bloc is expected to unveil its European Defense Industrial Strategy, a grand plan for its 27 member states to collaborate on weapons production and distribution.

European President Ursula von der Leyen is trying to position these reform efforts not as insurance against the lack of U.S. cooperation, but as a complement to U.S. cooperation.

“Europe needs to strengthen its industrial base,” he told a panel at the Munich Security Conference. “I am convinced that I am a transatlanticist, but at the same time we need to build a strong Europe and that goes hand in hand.”

Despite all this diplomatic noise, the possibility of another Trump presidency undoubtedly looms large.

Already his allies in Congress have stalled aid to Ukraine, making it newly vulnerable to Russia’s war machine. Europe is trying to strengthen it, but so far the results have not been promising. The European Union admitted in January that it had fulfilled only half of its promise to send one million shells to Ukraine.

Beyond Ukraine, Danish and Estonian officials have sounded the alarm this year about Russia’s ability, and even intentions, to attack NATO members within the next decade. According to Estonian estimates, Russia is expected to produce 3.5 million shells this year. By contrast, Europe is expected to be able to produce about 1.4 million shells by the end of the year.

So for these NATO members, President Trump is undermining the alliance at the very moment he might have to invoke Article V’s “one for one, one for all” mutual defense clause. become.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Verbock elaborated on Europe’s reliance on the alliance in an interview with NBC News at the Munich Security Conference.

Asked about the former president’s threat, Burbock said NATO was “our life insurance” not only for Europe but also for the United States. Although he did not mention President Trump by name, he said, “People around the world, especially in liberal democracies, understand that now is the time for peace and security to take a stand for freedom.” I am doing it,” he added.

She said NATO and the EU were “stronger than ever before.” But not everyone in Munich was so optimistic.

“We are already behind the curve,” said Röttgen, a senior German lawmaker, regarding Europe’s plans to stop Trump. “But it’s better to start late than never,” he said. “The impact of Trump’s re-election will be most impactful and dangerous in Europe,” he said.